川哥研报

Fundamental Information
1. Key points from the Federal Reserve's July 2025 meeting.
Interest Rate Policy: The benchmark interest rate is maintained at a range of 5.25%-5.50%, marking the seventh consecutive time the current rate level has been kept. The Federal Reserve emphasizes that to ensure inflation steadily declines to the 2% target, it will maintain high interest rates for a longer period.
Inflation Assessment: Core PCE inflation remains above the target, but a downward trend is evident. The Federal Reserve states that 'more data is needed' to confirm whether inflation is consistently slowing.
Labor Market: The labor market remains overall strong, but signs of 'slight cooling' have begun to appear, with a slight slowdown in labor demand.

Fundamental Analysis
1. The U.S. SEC has officially permitted Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to conduct 'physical subscription and redemption' operations, meaning authorized participants can directly exchange BTC, ETH, and ETF shares. This mechanism optimizes and reduces the arbitrage costs of ETFs, enhancing product liquidity, allowing institutions to use native assets for position reduction or redemption operations, which is expected to gradually boost the actual buying demand for BTC and ETH. At the same time, the relaxation of restrictions on options positions makes ETF trading tools more abundant, helping to enhance market participation and trading depth, making volatility easier to manage, and potentially expanding the scale of funds further. However, it is important to note that this positive news has already been partially absorbed by the market, and the demand growth brought about by the improvement of the ETF mechanism is a gradual process, not one that will trigger a sudden price surge. If there is no significant price increase when the news is released, the market may experience a 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' trend.

Fundamentals
This week, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining the current interest rates is as high as 96.9%.
Trump stated that he plans to set global tariff levels between 15% and 20%. This move may exacerbate friction in the global trade arena, reducing market risk appetite and causing funds to flow more towards safe-haven assets, potentially leading to capital outflows from high-volatility assets in the short term; additionally, this could adversely affect the Fed's rate-cutting process.
The U.S. SEC has decided to postpone the review of the applications for the spot BTC ETF by Truth Social and the spot SOL ETF by Grayscale.

1. Currently, approximately 2.54 billion USD of ETH is waiting to be withdrawn from the Ethereum PoS network, while 1.01 billion USD of ETH is ready to join, indicating a net outflow of staked liquidity, with an increasing willingness for staked funds to 'actively exit'. The amount of new staking is less than half of the amount exiting, indicating that institutions and individuals have less confidence in 'continuing to lock up'. Once a large amount of ETH is unlocked and flows into exchanges, it may create expectations of liquidity selling pressure. Currently, ETH is near a temporary high; if the structural liquidity deteriorates further, it is likely to encounter dual pressure from 'profit-taking + liquidity shock'.

Approximately $2.64 billion worth of ETH is queued to exit the Ethereum POS network, and new staking demand is beginning to decline.
What sentiment does the market indicate? What impact does it have on Ethereum going forward?
"Exit queue of 694,000 ETH": indicates that a large number of stakers are queuing to unstake and prepare to withdraw ETH.
"New staking demand declines": the number of applications for staking ETH in the network decreases, indicating a weakened market willingness to continue locking up ETH.
Possible underlying reasons
I. Short-term arbitrage completed:
Some early stakers have completed their profit cycle and choose to exit the lock-up to realize profits.

Research Report by Brother Chuan on July 25th
1. The EU has finalized a counter-sanctions list against the US, indicating signs of escalation in the trade dispute between the US and Europe, which further increases global trade uncertainty and raises market risk aversion. As a risk asset, cryptocurrencies may face pressure as funds may flow towards safer assets.
2. The European Central Bank has decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, signaling a commitment to policy stability. This move is beneficial for the liquidity stability of the Eurozone, alleviating market concerns about tightening policies, and may provide some mild support to cryptocurrencies, but it is still difficult to change the pressure they face in the current phase.

The content of the report by Chuan Ge on July 24 is as follows:
1. The possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate unchanged in July is as high as 97.4%.
2. An agreement on a 15% tariff between the United States and Europe is nearing completion, with preliminary progress made in trade negotiations.
3. The White House has publicly announced Trump's artificial intelligence action plan, aimed at solidifying the United States' leading position in the field of artificial intelligence.
4. Trump stated that he would impose a simplified tariff of 15% to 50% on the vast majority of countries.
Technical analysis:
BTC: From a daily perspective, it is overall in an upward channel (blue trend line) and has recently oscillated within the range of 116 - 120K. The recent high K-lines show a pattern of small bearish and bullish candles alternating, which is a clear reflection of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Trading volume has decreased, indicating a decline in the enthusiasm of fund participation; the current market is in a phase where the main force is testing the waters. The market often does not break without establishing a new order; breaking before establishing a new one, the future market direction will depend on whether we can see a significant bullish candle or a bearish candle with a long upper shadow. The daily MA7 and MA14 moving averages overlap, which means that the time and space for subsequent adjustments are relatively limited; a breakout signal for a significant rise or fall is imminent. The 4-hour chart rebounded after testing the MA90 daily moving average three times in the evening, forming three long lower shadow candles, and after a morning high, it retreated again. In terms of intraday operations, pay attention to the resistance at the 119.5 - 120.5K level above, and focus on the support at the 117.5 - 116.5K level below.