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晚间盘解分析：BTC/ETH
BTC：
行情回顾：早间研报明确讲到当前处于收敛三角形的 末端，行情没有继续横盘调整的空间了，下行楔形走势可能性比较大，操作上重点关注上方1055-1065位置压力看空机会。下午反弹最高点在106524位置，目前跌幅4000余点，下方目标1025位置已经实现，走势完全符合预期。
后续走势展望：日线走势冲高回落，目前走出实体大阴线，暂时跌破近一个月以来的低点一线防守103位置。K线排列上呈现震荡下行的趋势，周末维持小幅下跌，下周的下跌目标将看到上一轮上涨的起涨位95一线附近。4小时线目前走出两根放量大跌的实体阴线，并没有出现止跌的现象。操作上切勿轻易抄底，稳健做法就是等小幅反弹继续看空，上方重点关注1035-1045位置压力，下方重点关注1015-1005位置支撑。
ETH：
行情回顾：早间研报明确讲到当前结构正处于三角收敛末端博弈状态，进入技术面“临界点”。并且进十日的表现可以看出上涨无量，下跌放量的状态，表明多头信心不足，空头更显主动。明确讲到上方重点关注2530-2570位置压力看空机会，下午反弹最高点在2569位置，最大下跌空间高达200余点，走势完全符合预期。
后续展望：下跌插针2350附近有所反弹，刚好处于中长期蓝色趋势线附近位置止跌。上一轮上涨之后的调整期间，下方低点2280-2310位置可以作为近几日的下跌目标。一旦空头愈演愈烈，后续可能还有机会下探2000点附近。操作上，不要轻易抄底做多，可以以高空为主的思路，上方重点关注2450-2480位置看空机会，下方重点关注2320-2350位置支撑。
近期对于盘面解读和行情走势预判非常精准，有需要的朋友可以看我简介！
BTC：
行情回顾：早间研报明确讲到当前处于收敛三角形的 末端，行情没有继续横盘调整的空间了，下行楔形走势可能性比较大，操作上重点关注上方1055-1065位置压力看空机会。下午反弹最高点在106524位置，目前跌幅4000余点，下方目标1025位置已经实现，走势完全符合预期。
后续走势展望：日线走势冲高回落，目前走出实体大阴线，暂时跌破近一个月以来的低点一线防守103位置。K线排列上呈现震荡下行的趋势，周末维持小幅下跌，下周的下跌目标将看到上一轮上涨的起涨位95一线附近。4小时线目前走出两根放量大跌的实体阴线，并没有出现止跌的现象。操作上切勿轻易抄底，稳健做法就是等小幅反弹继续看空，上方重点关注1035-1045位置压力，下方重点关注1015-1005位置支撑。
ETH：
行情回顾：早间研报明确讲到当前结构正处于三角收敛末端博弈状态，进入技术面“临界点”。并且进十日的表现可以看出上涨无量，下跌放量的状态，表明多头信心不足，空头更显主动。明确讲到上方重点关注2530-2570位置压力看空机会，下午反弹最高点在2569位置，最大下跌空间高达200余点，走势完全符合预期。
后续展望：下跌插针2350附近有所反弹，刚好处于中长期蓝色趋势线附近位置止跌。上一轮上涨之后的调整期间，下方低点2280-2310位置可以作为近几日的下跌目标。一旦空头愈演愈烈，后续可能还有机会下探2000点附近。操作上，不要轻易抄底做多，可以以高空为主的思路，上方重点关注2450-2480位置看空机会，下方重点关注2320-2350位置支撑。
近期对于盘面解读和行情走势预判非常精准，有需要的朋友可以看我简介！
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The Iran-Israel conflict ignites bearish sentiment! BTC's low-volume fluctuation = guillotine at 95000 as the final coffin lid?
Fundamentals:
1. Three major events in the Iran-Israel conflict: Iran launched long-range heavy missiles at Israel; Trump confirmed a declaration of war against Iran; missiles and drones launched by Iran directly hit key targets in Israel, resulting in multiple casualties. The geopolitical conflict has escalated again, but fortunately, Trump has delayed the decision to strike Iran by two weeks, somewhat alleviating concerns about the escalation of the situation.
2. Bitcoin's on-chain trading volume has hit an 18-month low, the Runes and Ordinals craze has faded, and the crypto market has entered a seasonal slump.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: From the daily chart, it is currently at the end of a 'converging triangle.' The support at the 103 level has been tested multiple times as an effective breakdown, indicating that buying interest remains active. From the recent market environment, negative factors (increased geopolitical conflicts + the U.S. SEC delaying the approval of spot ETFs) dominate, making a downward wedge likely. If the 103 support is broken, the 95 level, as the starting point of the previous rise, will become the next major defense zone. The daily chart has shown a narrow range of low-volume fluctuations in recent days, with trading volume significantly shrinking, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. On the 4-hour chart, the price has been fluctuating in the 1035-1055 range in recent days. For intraday trading, focus on the pressure at the 1055-1065 position for shorting opportunities, and watch for rebound signals at the support level of 1035-1025.
1. Three major events in the Iran-Israel conflict: Iran launched long-range heavy missiles at Israel; Trump confirmed a declaration of war against Iran; missiles and drones launched by Iran directly hit key targets in Israel, resulting in multiple casualties. The geopolitical conflict has escalated again, but fortunately, Trump has delayed the decision to strike Iran by two weeks, somewhat alleviating concerns about the escalation of the situation.
2. Bitcoin's on-chain trading volume has hit an 18-month low, the Runes and Ordinals craze has faded, and the crypto market has entered a seasonal slump.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: From the daily chart, it is currently at the end of a 'converging triangle.' The support at the 103 level has been tested multiple times as an effective breakdown, indicating that buying interest remains active. From the recent market environment, negative factors (increased geopolitical conflicts + the U.S. SEC delaying the approval of spot ETFs) dominate, making a downward wedge likely. If the 103 support is broken, the 95 level, as the starting point of the previous rise, will become the next major defense zone. The daily chart has shown a narrow range of low-volume fluctuations in recent days, with trading volume significantly shrinking, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. On the 4-hour chart, the price has been fluctuating in the 1035-1055 range in recent days. For intraday trading, focus on the pressure at the 1055-1065 position for shorting opportunities, and watch for rebound signals at the support level of 1035-1025.
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Evening Market Analysis:
BTC: The daily chart is currently showing a small bearish candlestick. The K-line has been pressing against the 7-day moving average on its downward path for the past three days. Although the decline is relatively small, the support at the 103 level is evident. However, considering the overall weak performance of the market, the trend leans more bearish, and further adjustments are expected in the short term. On the four-hour chart, there was a slight rebound during the Asian session, but it has started to decline again near the 105 level, showing a slow pullback. For evening operations, the focus is on short positions, with key resistance at the 105-106 level and key support at the 1025-1015 level.
ETH: From the daily chart perspective, after a rise to the 2880 level last week, the price has started to decline, showing a small trend of oscillating downward. The K-line has been pressing down against the 7-day moving average in recent days. The lower support at 2480 has been significant as the low point over the past month. If the daily chart effectively breaks below this level in the short term, the market may continue to test the 2280-2310 range. On the four-hour chart, there is an overall small downward oscillating trend, currently positioned at the tail end of a triangular area, indicating that the market is about to enter a new directional phase, with bears holding an advantage. For evening operations, the focus is on short positions, with key resistance at the 2540-2560 level and key support at the 2480-2460 level.
BTC: The daily chart is currently showing a small bearish candlestick. The K-line has been pressing against the 7-day moving average on its downward path for the past three days. Although the decline is relatively small, the support at the 103 level is evident. However, considering the overall weak performance of the market, the trend leans more bearish, and further adjustments are expected in the short term. On the four-hour chart, there was a slight rebound during the Asian session, but it has started to decline again near the 105 level, showing a slow pullback. For evening operations, the focus is on short positions, with key resistance at the 105-106 level and key support at the 1025-1015 level.
ETH: From the daily chart perspective, after a rise to the 2880 level last week, the price has started to decline, showing a small trend of oscillating downward. The K-line has been pressing down against the 7-day moving average in recent days. The lower support at 2480 has been significant as the low point over the past month. If the daily chart effectively breaks below this level in the short term, the market may continue to test the 2280-2310 range. On the four-hour chart, there is an overall small downward oscillating trend, currently positioned at the tail end of a triangular area, indicating that the market is about to enter a new directional phase, with bears holding an advantage. For evening operations, the focus is on short positions, with key resistance at the 2540-2560 level and key support at the 2480-2460 level.
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Cryptocurrency Market at a Critical Turning Point! Federal Reserve Hawkish Voice + Middle East Crisis, BTC/ETH Key Support at Risk!
Market Observation on June 19
Fundamental Analysis:
Federal Reserve Policy Trends: The latest dot plot conveys core information, and Powell's key statements at the press conference (see attached chart interpretation) need to be closely monitored for their impact on the crypto asset market. The overall tone is hawkish, and the market still has differing expectations about the timing of interest rate cuts.
Geopolitical Risks Rising: The military confrontation between Israel and Iran has significantly escalated, with regional proxy armed forces entering a state of readiness, and nuclear deterrence factors emerging, threatening the stability of international energy supply. Although it has not escalated into a full-scale war, the conflict is highly likely to enter a stage of 'high-intensity hybrid conflict,' with risk premiums continuing to rise.
Fundamental Analysis:
Federal Reserve Policy Trends: The latest dot plot conveys core information, and Powell's key statements at the press conference (see attached chart interpretation) need to be closely monitored for their impact on the crypto asset market. The overall tone is hawkish, and the market still has differing expectations about the timing of interest rate cuts.
Geopolitical Risks Rising: The military confrontation between Israel and Iran has significantly escalated, with regional proxy armed forces entering a state of readiness, and nuclear deterrence factors emerging, threatening the stability of international energy supply. Although it has not escalated into a full-scale war, the conflict is highly likely to enter a stage of 'high-intensity hybrid conflict,' with risk premiums continuing to rise.
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Brothers, staying up late every day, I really can't take it anymore. How are you all doing?
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Evening Market Analysis:
BTC: This morning it was clearly mentioned that the daily line had a long shadow after hitting a high and falling back yesterday. Today, we should first focus on the resistance at the 1070-1080 positions and look for short opportunities. The daily trend is completely in line with expectations. Currently, the daily line has formed a large bearish candle, breaking below the moving average support, and is once again approaching the recent low around 103 with a slight rebound. The 4-hour chart shows four consecutive bearish candles, and there hasn't been a significant volume drop yet. After a slight rebound this evening, it is expected to continue to decline. In evening trading, key resistance levels to watch above are 1053-1063 for short opportunities, while key support levels below are 1025-1015.
ETH: The morning research report clearly indicated focusing on the resistance at the 2630-2660 positions above. This morning, the highest rebound near 2620 began to decline, with a current intraday drop of over 140 points. The daily line had a long shadow after hitting a high and falling back yesterday, which is a typical signal for a bearish trend after a high. Today, it has formed a large bearish candle, with the market showing signs of stopping the decline near the recent low around 2480. The 4-hour chart shows four consecutive bearish candles, and there hasn't been a significant volume drop yet. After a small-level rebound, the market is expected to continue to decline. In trading, key resistance levels to watch above are 2530-2560 for short opportunities, while key support levels below are 2460-2430.
BTC: This morning it was clearly mentioned that the daily line had a long shadow after hitting a high and falling back yesterday. Today, we should first focus on the resistance at the 1070-1080 positions and look for short opportunities. The daily trend is completely in line with expectations. Currently, the daily line has formed a large bearish candle, breaking below the moving average support, and is once again approaching the recent low around 103 with a slight rebound. The 4-hour chart shows four consecutive bearish candles, and there hasn't been a significant volume drop yet. After a slight rebound this evening, it is expected to continue to decline. In evening trading, key resistance levels to watch above are 1053-1063 for short opportunities, while key support levels below are 1025-1015.
ETH: The morning research report clearly indicated focusing on the resistance at the 2630-2660 positions above. This morning, the highest rebound near 2620 began to decline, with a current intraday drop of over 140 points. The daily line had a long shadow after hitting a high and falling back yesterday, which is a typical signal for a bearish trend after a high. Today, it has formed a large bearish candle, with the market showing signs of stopping the decline near the recent low around 2480. The 4-hour chart shows four consecutive bearish candles, and there hasn't been a significant volume drop yet. After a small-level rebound, the market is expected to continue to decline. In trading, key resistance levels to watch above are 2530-2560 for short opportunities, while key support levels below are 2460-2430.
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June 17 Market Research Report: Crypto Market Analysis: Geopolitical Conflicts Disrupt the Market, BTC/ETH Technical Levels Under Pressure
Key Points of Macroeconomic Fundamentals:
Geopolitical Risks Intensify, Pressuring Risk Assets: Early this morning, an explosion occurred in Tehran, the capital of Iran, significantly escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. This event has intensified market sell-off pressure on high-risk assets, causing safe-haven funds to flow rapidly into traditional refuges like gold, government bonds, and the yen. As a result, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rapid short-term decline.
Bank of Japan Policy Expectations: Goldman Sachs' latest analysis indicates that the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current monetary policy, with the next rate hike anticipated to occur next year.
Geopolitical Risks Intensify, Pressuring Risk Assets: Early this morning, an explosion occurred in Tehran, the capital of Iran, significantly escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. This event has intensified market sell-off pressure on high-risk assets, causing safe-haven funds to flow rapidly into traditional refuges like gold, government bonds, and the yen. As a result, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rapid short-term decline.
Bank of Japan Policy Expectations: Goldman Sachs' latest analysis indicates that the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current monetary policy, with the next rate hike anticipated to occur next year.
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The following are significant events this month that may impact the cryptocurrency market, friends can pay special attention to #Metaplanet增持比特币
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Evening Market Analysis:
BTC: Currently close to the 108,000 point mentioned this morning, the daily line shows a solid bullish candle, breaking through the upper moving average resistance, indicating a strong trend. The 4-hour chart shows an overall upward fluctuation, with a relatively stable upward trend; the market is expected to continue rising. This evening, focus on the resistance around 109,000-110,000 above, and the support around 107,000-106,000 below.
ETH: The daily line currently shows a large bullish candle, stagnating near the daily 7-day moving average, indicating significant pressure during the upward process. The overall trend of the daily line has slightly turned upwards. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the morning double bottom formed a bullish candle, showing a strong market trend. During the evening session, there were multiple spikes near 2,640 before pulling back; if it breaks 2,660 in the early morning, we can see levels near 2,720, but be cautious of a spike near 2,750. For evening operations, focus on the resistance around 2,720-2,750 for a bearish outlook, and watch the support around 2,610-2,580 for a bullish outlook!
BTC: Currently close to the 108,000 point mentioned this morning, the daily line shows a solid bullish candle, breaking through the upper moving average resistance, indicating a strong trend. The 4-hour chart shows an overall upward fluctuation, with a relatively stable upward trend; the market is expected to continue rising. This evening, focus on the resistance around 109,000-110,000 above, and the support around 107,000-106,000 below.
ETH: The daily line currently shows a large bullish candle, stagnating near the daily 7-day moving average, indicating significant pressure during the upward process. The overall trend of the daily line has slightly turned upwards. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the morning double bottom formed a bullish candle, showing a strong market trend. During the evening session, there were multiple spikes near 2,640 before pulling back; if it breaks 2,660 in the early morning, we can see levels near 2,720, but be cautious of a spike near 2,750. For evening operations, focus on the resistance around 2,720-2,750 for a bearish outlook, and watch the support around 2,610-2,580 for a bullish outlook!
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《6.16 Brother Chuan's Research Report》Retail Traps: ZKJ's 80% Plunge Unveils the Altcoin Liquidity Crisis, How to Hedge Against Unlocking Tides?
June 16th - Brother Chuan's perspective on coins
Fundamentals:
1. After the ACT flash crash two and a half months ago, ZKJ experienced a flash crash at eleven o'clock in the evening, with a decline of over 80% within an hour. The trigger for this flash crash was mainly due to its liquidity being drained and a chain reaction of sell-offs caused by token unlocks. This also reveals the extreme vulnerability of small coin projects in terms of incentive mechanisms and weak on-chain liquidity; once they encounter mechanism adjustments or large-holder operations, it can trigger panic across the entire chain. For retail investors, recognizing these structural traps and avoiding involvement in easily collapsing market conditions is a capital preservation strategy.
Fundamentals:
1. After the ACT flash crash two and a half months ago, ZKJ experienced a flash crash at eleven o'clock in the evening, with a decline of over 80% within an hour. The trigger for this flash crash was mainly due to its liquidity being drained and a chain reaction of sell-offs caused by token unlocks. This also reveals the extreme vulnerability of small coin projects in terms of incentive mechanisms and weak on-chain liquidity; once they encounter mechanism adjustments or large-holder operations, it can trigger panic across the entire chain. For retail investors, recognizing these structural traps and avoiding involvement in easily collapsing market conditions is a capital preservation strategy.
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Chuan Ge June 13 Warning: SEC Regulatory Earthquake, BTC Breaks Through 100,000 Defense Line, ETH Falls Back to 2480 Hell Level, Altcoins Collective Cliff Dive?
Fundamental Dynamics:
ETF Approval Progress Delayed: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to postpone its final ruling on the spot ETF applications submitted by Bitwise (Dogecoin), Grayscale (Hedera), and VanEck (Avalanche).
Exchange Dynamics: Coinbase has included the Sonic ($S) project in its list of potential tokens for future listings.
Regulatory Policy Shift: The SEC has officially withdrawn several key proposals, including its earlier extended version (custody rules) and (Rule 3b-16). This move is seen as a significant adjustment in regulatory strategy, shifting from the 'strong regulation, heavy enforcement' model of Gary Gensler's tenure to a more collaborative and development-focused 'governance-type regulation' framework. This transformation is expected to effectively reduce compliance barriers for traditional financial institutions entering the cryptocurrency market in the medium term, while providing clearer compliance pathways for DeFi projects, thus boosting market confidence and attracting incremental funds.
ETF Approval Progress Delayed: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to postpone its final ruling on the spot ETF applications submitted by Bitwise (Dogecoin), Grayscale (Hedera), and VanEck (Avalanche).
Exchange Dynamics: Coinbase has included the Sonic ($S) project in its list of potential tokens for future listings.
Regulatory Policy Shift: The SEC has officially withdrawn several key proposals, including its earlier extended version (custody rules) and (Rule 3b-16). This move is seen as a significant adjustment in regulatory strategy, shifting from the 'strong regulation, heavy enforcement' model of Gary Gensler's tenure to a more collaborative and development-focused 'governance-type regulation' framework. This transformation is expected to effectively reduce compliance barriers for traditional financial institutions entering the cryptocurrency market in the medium term, while providing clearer compliance pathways for DeFi projects, thus boosting market confidence and attracting incremental funds.
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BTC Plummets by 5000, Breaching the Lifeline; AI Rankings Collapse! Middle East Powder Keg Ignites a Nuclear-Level Bull-Bear Battle in the Crypto World: 24-Hour Countdown for Survival
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been turbulent, with multiple factors intertwining to trigger severe fluctuations. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has taken strong regulatory actions, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have escalated, and subtle changes in the tariff policies of the Trump administration have left investors on edge with every piece of news. In this complex market situation, how are mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) performing? How should one position in altcoins? Let’s conduct a thorough analysis from both fundamental and technical perspectives.
1. Analysis of the market fundamentals intertwined with long and short positions
The Monetary Authority of Singapore recently issued a significant warning, delivering a 'deportation order' to cryptocurrency trading platforms without local licenses. This move aims to build a barrier for investor protection and prevent a recurrence of incidents similar to the FTX collapse. In the short term, market panic has spread rapidly, increasing investors' concerns about the safety and liquidity of crypto assets, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets; however, from a long-term perspective, this policy will accelerate industry reshuffling, promote the cryptocurrency market towards compliance and regulation, benefiting compliant trading platforms and potentially stimulating the development of compliant sectors like stablecoins and on-chain payments.
1. Analysis of the market fundamentals intertwined with long and short positions
The Monetary Authority of Singapore recently issued a significant warning, delivering a 'deportation order' to cryptocurrency trading platforms without local licenses. This move aims to build a barrier for investor protection and prevent a recurrence of incidents similar to the FTX collapse. In the short term, market panic has spread rapidly, increasing investors' concerns about the safety and liquidity of crypto assets, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets; however, from a long-term perspective, this policy will accelerate industry reshuffling, promote the cryptocurrency market towards compliance and regulation, benefiting compliant trading platforms and potentially stimulating the development of compliant sectors like stablecoins and on-chain payments.
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SUSHI: Uniswap smart wallet launched, DEX segment rotation, Sushi as an established AMM, has technical and cross-chain aggregation advantages, may attract capital attention. Yesterday's daily line had a significant increase, the current price at 0.755 can be directly monitored, first target 0.9, second target 1.4, nephew 0.6, nephew space exceeds 10%, corresponding positions can be slightly adjusted!
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June 11th, Dazhuan Yibin: 30% Increase Ignites the Market! Under the Uniswap ecosystem upgrade, these potential coins may become the next trend.
1. Market Fundamental Analysis
Uniswap Ecosystem Strategic Upgrade: The upcoming smart wallet from Uniswap is not just a simple storage tool but an important measure for deepening its ecological financial system and scenarized layout of on-chain traffic entry. As a key product in the decentralized exchange (DEX) field, the launch of this wallet will directly boost the DEX sector, especially aggregation trading platforms and routing protocol projects. The market has already responded, with UNI token increasing by 30% in a single day, and SUSHI token also achieving an 11% increase alongside a surge in trading volume, making future growth potential worth noting. The core technology of the smart wallet—'account abstraction' feature—will bring significant development opportunities to related protocols.
Uniswap Ecosystem Strategic Upgrade: The upcoming smart wallet from Uniswap is not just a simple storage tool but an important measure for deepening its ecological financial system and scenarized layout of on-chain traffic entry. As a key product in the decentralized exchange (DEX) field, the launch of this wallet will directly boost the DEX sector, especially aggregation trading platforms and routing protocol projects. The market has already responded, with UNI token increasing by 30% in a single day, and SUSHI token also achieving an 11% increase alongside a surge in trading volume, making future growth potential worth noting. The core technology of the smart wallet—'account abstraction' feature—will bring significant development opportunities to related protocols.
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Tether Issues 1 Billion USDT on the TRX Chain: Reviewing History, Will Mainstream and Altcoins Rise or Fall?
Dear friends in the crypto circle, today we are going to talk about the significant event of Tether issuing 1 billion USDT on the TRX chain. There are many intricacies behind this, which may significantly impact your upcoming investment decisions!
Looking at the short term, this issuance is like directly injecting money into the market. Historically, every time USDT is issued, it brings a wave of liquidity that stimulates cryptocurrency prices to rise. For example, during the issuance in 2019, Bitcoin's price surged accordingly. This time, with an additional 1 billion USDT suddenly on the TRX chain, it has directly expanded the trading pool of the TRX chain, especially in popular areas like DeFi and NFTs within the Tron ecosystem, where trading activity is bound to soar. It's worth noting that the average daily trading volume of USDT on the TRX chain has already reached 25 billion dollars, and after this issuance, this number is likely to hit a new high.
Looking at the short term, this issuance is like directly injecting money into the market. Historically, every time USDT is issued, it brings a wave of liquidity that stimulates cryptocurrency prices to rise. For example, during the issuance in 2019, Bitcoin's price surged accordingly. This time, with an additional 1 billion USDT suddenly on the TRX chain, it has directly expanded the trading pool of the TRX chain, especially in popular areas like DeFi and NFTs within the Tron ecosystem, where trading activity is bound to soar. It's worth noting that the average daily trading volume of USDT on the TRX chain has already reached 25 billion dollars, and after this issuance, this number is likely to hit a new high.
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June 9th Big River Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin peaks at 107 and falls back, Ethereum under pressure with moving average defense in urgent need
Fundamental dynamics
1. Nasdaq has submitted an application to the U.S. SEC to include XRP, SOL, ADA, and XLM in the cryptocurrency index. This action releases a stronger signal of legalization, indirectly promoting the compliance process of 'non-Bitcoin Ethereum' cryptocurrencies, constituting a medium-term favorable factor. As the compliance path becomes increasingly clear, it is expected to attract conservative funds such as pensions and index funds to enter and layout. Meanwhile, the weight restoration of established mainstream altcoins is expected to begin, potentially further driving the rotation of second-tier cryptocurrencies.
2. Market data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is as high as 99.9%.
1. Nasdaq has submitted an application to the U.S. SEC to include XRP, SOL, ADA, and XLM in the cryptocurrency index. This action releases a stronger signal of legalization, indirectly promoting the compliance process of 'non-Bitcoin Ethereum' cryptocurrencies, constituting a medium-term favorable factor. As the compliance path becomes increasingly clear, it is expected to attract conservative funds such as pensions and index funds to enter and layout. Meanwhile, the weight restoration of established mainstream altcoins is expected to begin, potentially further driving the rotation of second-tier cryptocurrencies.
2. Market data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is as high as 99.9%.
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BlackRock Sells Bitcoin and Buys Ethereum: Should You Do the Same?
According to Arkham Intelligence, BlackRock has sold Bitcoin (BTC) and increased its holdings in Ethereum (ETH). This move may be because the world's largest asset management company anticipates further market volatility. In the past few weeks, the price of BTC has experienced a slight pullback, while ETH seems to be rising slightly.
On May 22, the price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $111,814. The rise in Bitcoin triggered an overall market rebound. As Bitcoin's price soared, the inflow of funds into many crypto assets also increased. This rebound is very likely due to a surge in institutional investment. In May alone, BlackRock purchased over $3 billion worth of Bitcoin.
On May 22, the price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $111,814. The rise in Bitcoin triggered an overall market rebound. As Bitcoin's price soared, the inflow of funds into many crypto assets also increased. This rebound is very likely due to a surge in institutional investment. In May alone, BlackRock purchased over $3 billion worth of Bitcoin.
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June 8th, Da Chuan Looks at Coins: The Three Major Risk Events About to Happen and Bitcoin Weekly Chart Facing Similar Bearish Divergence as in 2021, Could Trigger a Correction of Over 50% to $64,000
Three major risk events: The 'Sword of Damocles' hanging over Bitcoin
First, the uncertainty of U.S. monetary policy remains the biggest variable in the cryptocurrency market. The Federal Reserve's ongoing focus on inflation makes the future of interest rate hikes uncertain. Once the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals and expectations for rate hikes heat up, market funds will quickly flow to low-risk traditional assets, putting serious outflow pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
Secondly, the tightening risk of cryptocurrency regulatory policies should not be underestimated. Many countries and regions around the world are gradually strengthening their regulatory measures on cryptocurrencies, from compliance in trading to tax policies. A series of regulatory measures will directly affect the liquidity and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market. If key regions implement strict regulatory policies, the price of Bitcoin will undoubtedly suffer a heavy blow.
First, the uncertainty of U.S. monetary policy remains the biggest variable in the cryptocurrency market. The Federal Reserve's ongoing focus on inflation makes the future of interest rate hikes uncertain. Once the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals and expectations for rate hikes heat up, market funds will quickly flow to low-risk traditional assets, putting serious outflow pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
Secondly, the tightening risk of cryptocurrency regulatory policies should not be underestimated. Many countries and regions around the world are gradually strengthening their regulatory measures on cryptocurrencies, from compliance in trading to tax policies. A series of regulatory measures will directly affect the liquidity and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market. If key regions implement strict regulatory policies, the price of Bitcoin will undoubtedly suffer a heavy blow.
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How Will Tonight's U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data Affect the Cryptocurrency Market?
One, The Correlation Mechanism Between Non-Farm Payroll Data and the Cryptocurrency Market
U.S. employment data is an important macroeconomic indicator that influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, affecting market capital flows and investor risk preferences. The quality of the non-farm payroll data directly alters market expectations for monetary policy, which in turn triggers price fluctuations in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Two, Bitcoin: A Dual Game of Fundamentals and Technicals
Bitcoin's trend is highly correlated with U.S. monetary policy expectations.
If non-farm payroll data comes in lower than expected, market interest rate cut expectations will rise, bringing funds into the crypto market, with Bitcoin likely to hit $115,000; strong data may lead the Federal Reserve to raise rates, putting pressure on Bitcoin.
U.S. employment data is an important macroeconomic indicator that influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, affecting market capital flows and investor risk preferences. The quality of the non-farm payroll data directly alters market expectations for monetary policy, which in turn triggers price fluctuations in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Two, Bitcoin: A Dual Game of Fundamentals and Technicals
Bitcoin's trend is highly correlated with U.S. monetary policy expectations.
If non-farm payroll data comes in lower than expected, market interest rate cut expectations will rise, bringing funds into the crypto market, with Bitcoin likely to hit $115,000; strong data may lead the Federal Reserve to raise rates, putting pressure on Bitcoin.
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