1. Currently, approximately 2.54 billion USD of ETH is waiting to be withdrawn from the Ethereum PoS network, while 1.01 billion USD of ETH is ready to join, indicating a net outflow of staked liquidity, with an increasing willingness for staked funds to 'actively exit'. The amount of new staking is less than half of the amount exiting, indicating that institutions and individuals have less confidence in 'continuing to lock up'. Once a large amount of ETH is unlocked and flows into exchanges, it may create expectations of liquidity selling pressure. Currently, ETH is near a temporary high; if the structural liquidity deteriorates further, it is likely to encounter dual pressure from 'profit-taking + liquidity shock'.
2. This week, tokens such as SUI, JUP, ENA, and OP will see a large-scale unlocking, with a total value exceeding 100 million USD.
3. The US and EU have reached a tariff agreement with a 15% tax rate: this agreement alleviates trade friction, improves dollar liquidity, and enhances market risk appetite, leaning towards a positive sentiment in the short term; however, from a mid-term perspective, the unification of tariffs between the US and EU may prompt the global value chain to flow more back to the US and EU, putting pressure on the Asia-Pacific region and further exacerbating the global divide, which will also narrow the 'arbitrage environment' for cryptocurrencies.
BTC: The weekly chart is currently in a period of upward fluctuation, and from the trading volume perspective, the volume during the recent two weeks of fluctuation has increased compared to the previous upward trend; the subsequent market needs to be cautious of the risk of trend reversal during high-level fluctuations. The daily chart is overall in a box fluctuation within the range of 120K-116K, with a noticeable decrease in trading volume over the past three days, and upward momentum appears slightly insufficient. On July 25, a反日放量长下影线 appeared, indicating profit-taking behavior at high levels, but no continuous decline has formed. It is currently in a state of shrinking fluctuations, and whether it is a consolidation phase or a top signal still requires volume signals for verification. If it breaks through and stands firm above 120K again, approaching a new high, it will initiate a new round of upward trend; if it breaks below the MA30 daily average line at 114.8K with volume, it may retest around 107.8K in the short term. The current fluctuation cycle will not last long; if there is no breakthrough upward in the next two days, there is a need to be cautious of downward risks. The 4-hour chart shows a delay in growth near 120K and has produced a bearish candle; in terms of daily operations, pay close attention to the resistance level of 119.5K-120.5K above, and the support level of 118K below. If it falls below 1175, further attention should be directed to the 116K support level.
ETH: On the positive side, the Ethereum 10th anniversary live broadcast and the open torch BFT minting event will take place on July 30, which will stimulate on-chain activity; at the same time, the total amount of Ethereum staked on-chain remains high, indicating that the market still acknowledges the medium- to long-term logic of Ethereum. On the negative side, over 2.5 billion USD of ETH is waiting to exit POS staking, which may bring some selling pressure to the market in the short term; the willingness to stake has weakened, showing that the market is becoming increasingly cautious; on-chain GAS fees have not significantly risen, and the enthusiasm for NFTs has not led to a substantial increase in trading volume. From a technical perspective, ETH has risen nearly 180% in the past three months, entering a strong primary upward wave; however, the trading volume has remained high over the past week, with the price oscillating at a temporary high, and upward momentum has weakened in the short term. If the market can increase in volume and maintain above the 4000 level driven by positive factors, it is expected to challenge around 4500 points in the short term. If the positive factors materialize and Bitcoin consolidates or retreats, and ETH falls below the 3750 level, it will be necessary to watch for a potential market correction. The 4-hour chart currently shows a steady upward trend, with trading volume matching the upward pace, indicating a healthy upward trend. In terms of daily operations, focus on the support level of 3850-3800 below, and the resistance level of 3930-3980 above.
Altcoins: Driven by Ethereum, most altcoins have seen a three-day rebound, but the gains are limited. It is worth noting that the altcoins that will be unlocked this week have experienced significant increases today, and it is advisable to avoid tokens with large unlocking plans in the near future. The current altcoin market has not clearly entered a 'main upward wave'; it is essential to adhere to the principle of 'better to miss than to take the risk of loss', following the principle of 'logic first, price lags behind', and not to pursue capturing all gains, but to grasp the phases of certain upward trends, which is the approach of mature investors.
