Fundamentals
This week, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining the current interest rates is as high as 96.9%.
Trump stated that he plans to set global tariff levels between 15% and 20%. This move may exacerbate friction in the global trade arena, reducing market risk appetite and causing funds to flow more towards safe-haven assets, potentially leading to capital outflows from high-volatility assets in the short term; additionally, this could adversely affect the Fed's rate-cutting process.
The U.S. SEC has decided to postpone the review of the applications for the spot BTC ETF by Truth Social and the spot SOL ETF by Grayscale.
Qubic intends to control 51% of Monero's hashing power, raising market concerns about its security, which could lead to network transactions being interrupted. This incident poses a crisis not only for Monero but also rings alarm bells for all blockchains using the PoW mechanism.
Technical analysis
BTC: The research report from yesterday clearly pointed out that resistance should be noted around the 119.5K region. After reaching a high of 119.8K yesterday, the price began to retreat, and the support level at 117.5K was accurately touched in the early morning, with the overall trend completely in line with expectations. The recent market is in a high-range box oscillation between 120K - 116K, and current trading volume is gradually decreasing, with a strong atmosphere of market wait-and-see, as funds are awaiting clear direction. If there is no significant increase in volume when breaking through 120K later, it is highly likely to form a false breakout. On the daily chart, the price has repeatedly surged to around 120K and then retreated, indicating significant selling pressure above; at the same time, the support at the 116K line is firm, indicating that there is strong bullish defense power near this position. Prolonged horizontal consolidation is likely to form a 'failed breakout' price pattern. Yesterday's daily line retreated after reaching near 120K, closing below the 7 - 14 day moving average, with the support and resistance effects of the moving averages being relatively weak. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the defense situation at the 115K line; once there is a significant volume drop below this level, a short-term bearish market will fully begin. On the 4-hour chart, after three downward tests, the price showed a spike, currently stabilizing above 118K, with clear support below. There is some room for operation today, with key attention on the resistance level of 119K - 120K, where short opportunities can be sought; below, key attention on the support levels of 117K - 116K. The current price is in the middle of the range oscillation box, and it is recommended to patiently wait for quality points before entering operations.
ETH: The research report from yesterday clearly indicated that attention should be paid to the resistance at the 3930 position. The price rose to a high of 3940 yesterday before starting to retreat, gradually decreasing to the 3850 - 3800 levels in two phases, with the overall trend completely in line with the report's expectations. On the daily chart, the price surged and retreated, forming a bearish candle yesterday, continuing the downward trend in the morning. After the K-line retested the daily MA7 moving average support, a slight rebound occurred, and in the short term, it is expected to retest near 3680. From the 4-hour perspective, a low point has formed around the 3600 line recently, which can serve as an important support level for bullish defense. Currently, the 4-hour MA30 moving average at 3750 shows significant support, with the price rebounding after multiple retests of this position. In terms of daily operations, key attention should be paid to the resistance level of 3820 - 3870 above and the support level of 3680 - 3720 below.
Altcoins: The research report mentioned yesterday clearly pointed out that a large number of tokens will experience significant unlocking this week, especially those that saw a sharp increase before unlocking, which requires caution to avoid risks. Among them, SUI dropped 12%, OP retraced nearly 20% of yesterday's gains, and JUP fell nearly 15%. Currently, the rebound of altcoins in the past two days is significantly insufficient and does not conform to the characteristics of a bullish market. Generally, the upward trend of altcoins is accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, and most coins can rise by over 10%, but the recent rebound not only failed to keep up with the volume but also had relatively small gains. For high-volatility risk asset altcoins, it is recommended to patiently wait for the next entry opportunity; if the timing of entry is inappropriate, it will be difficult to achieve desirable holding returns.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and entry must be cautious. The above views are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice, for reference only.