The content of the report by Chuan Ge on July 24 is as follows:
1. The possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate unchanged in July is as high as 97.4%.
2. An agreement on a 15% tariff between the United States and Europe is nearing completion, with preliminary progress made in trade negotiations.
3. The White House has publicly announced Trump's artificial intelligence action plan, aimed at solidifying the United States' leading position in the field of artificial intelligence.
4. Trump stated that he would impose a simplified tariff of 15% to 50% on the vast majority of countries.
Technical analysis:
BTC: From a daily perspective, it is overall in an upward channel (blue trend line) and has recently oscillated within the range of 116 - 120K. The recent high K-lines show a pattern of small bearish and bullish candles alternating, which is a clear reflection of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Trading volume has decreased, indicating a decline in the enthusiasm of fund participation; the current market is in a phase where the main force is testing the waters. The market often does not break without establishing a new order; breaking before establishing a new one, the future market direction will depend on whether we can see a significant bullish candle or a bearish candle with a long upper shadow. The daily MA7 and MA14 moving averages overlap, which means that the time and space for subsequent adjustments are relatively limited; a breakout signal for a significant rise or fall is imminent. The 4-hour chart rebounded after testing the MA90 daily moving average three times in the evening, forming three long lower shadow candles, and after a morning high, it retreated again. In terms of intraday operations, pay attention to the resistance at the 119.5 - 120.5K level above, and focus on the support at the 117.5 - 116.5K level below.
ETH: Currently in a stage of high-level adjustment after a significant rise, the previous upward momentum was rapid, and the volume increased accordingly. However, there are now characteristics of 'volume stagnation at high levels + bearish candle adjustments', indicating signs of a pullback after a rise in the short term. The daily chart had a maximum drop of over 200 points yesterday, with an increase in trading volume, showing notable selling pressure at high levels. The daily line has already broken below the 7-day moving average, and it currently shows a small bullish candle; we need to be cautious of a pullback during the US trading session. The 4-hour chart recently shows an overall trend of oscillating downwards, and is currently in a rebound phase after a significant drop in a short time, with potential for further rebound during the Asian session. For intraday operations, pay close attention to the resistance at the 3680 - 3720 level above, and focus on the support at the 3580 - 3540 level below.
Altcoins: Recently (end of the month and beginning of the next), it is crucial to guard against the risks brought by some tokens' cliff-like unlocks, as there may be situations of arbitrage selling. Meanwhile, net inflows to several major exchanges have shown an upward trend in the past two days, indicating that investors are transferring altcoins to exchanges with the intention to sell. On-chain data shows anomalies, with a decrease in the number of interactive wallets and a decline in market enthusiasm, especially for smaller coins that have seen significant price increases recently, where short-sellers are quick to sell once they appear. The lifespan of such wallets is short and does not reflect real user activity. Recently in spot operations, it is recommended to maintain a strategy of staying in cash and observing, being patient with cash positions, daring, skilled, and willing to stay in cash to avoid unnecessary trouble. The ultimate goal of trading is profit; if there are no suitable opportunities, choose to observe.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and entering the market should be done with caution. The above content is merely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, only for reference and sharing.
