Crypto 一帆

Public Account: Rough Daily
v+: cucao999

🌐 Important News
🏦 Treasure Global Launches $100 Million Digital Asset Fund to Support its Q3 2025 AI Platform, Allocating BTC, ETH, and Stablecoins.

💳 JPMorgan Chase Will Accept Specific Crypto Assets Like iShares BTC ETF as Loan Collateral for Wealth Clients; and will include cryptocurrency in net worth assessments.

⚡ K Wave Media Signs $500 Million Equity Agreement with KWM LLC to Fund BTC Fund Strategy, Run Lightning Network Nodes, and Build BTC Infrastructure.
📊 Ethereum Foundation Announces Fund Policy: 2.5-Year Operating Cycle, 15% Annual Spending Cap (Targeting 5%), and Quarterly & Annual Internal Reports.

📈 Circle's Initial Public Offering (IPO) Priced at $31 Per Share, Raising Nearly $1.1 Billion, Valuing the Company at $6.9 Billion ($8.1 Billion Fully Diluted), Exceeding Expectations.

🔐 YZi Labs Invests in OneKey (Hardware Wallet), Aiming to Enhance its Self-Custody, Compliance, and Threat Detection Capabilities. Post-Series B Funding, the Company is Valued at $150 Million.

📜 California AB-1052 Bill Passed: Dormant Cryptocurrencies (Unused for 3+ Years) Will be Treated as 'Unclaimed Property.' Held in Cryptocurrency Form, Still Claimable.

Opened a long position of $TRB . $BMT moved the stop loss to tp1, this trade is 1200u. $ZEN a total of 2114u

$SOL Long-term holders' positions have reached the highest level in six months

Long-term holders of SOL have been consistently increasing their holdings over the past four days. This marks the longest period of position growth in the past six months, reflecting their growing confidence in the cryptocurrency. If this trend continues, the increasing support from this group may help drive SOL to break through key resistance levels.

However, new address activity has fallen to the lowest level in six months. This indicates that retail investor interest is declining, suggesting that short-term upward trends may be limited.

More news about retaliatory actions is emerging, which will only escalate the current tariff war. The market became somewhat overly confident after Trump's remarks last night. We are now seeing a common pattern where when the stock market drops significantly, Trump says something bullish, leading to a short-term rebound in the market.
Ultimately, the only situation that can sustain a bottom in the stock market is an agreement between the United States and China, and perhaps the European Union as well. Aside from that, everything else is irrelevant.

I believe a solution will eventually be found, as it is unrealistic to expect such high tariffs to exist in the long term, as they will only harm the economies of both countries.
The question is how long it will take to reach a solution, and how much more will the market price in the tariff war. From a macro perspective, this tariff war will provide us with a good opportunity to enter long positions, but due to the short-term uncertainty in the market, trying to find a bottom in the contracts is not the right approach.

#加密市场回调

Just opened a long position for $SOL , following ak.

Circle submitted an IPO application yesterday. I need to do some more research, but if the stock price rises after going public, it could be a buying opportunity.

European liquidity providers are now unable to exchange fiat/USDT due to Tether's failure to comply with MiCa regulations. This could become an opportunity for Circle and USDC to rise, especially considering it is an American company and still under Trump's administration.

I also noticed that they hold a large amount of $SUI , which is one of the cryptocurrencies I hold. It has relatively strong performance during market lows.


#Circle上市

Market fluctuations of various outcomes!

10%: Assuming the implementation of a 10% comprehensive tariff, while canceling/replacing tariffs on Canada/Mexico, but excluding China: The S&P 500 Index rises by 2% to 2.5%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rises by about 10 basis points. The euro/USD falls to 1.06-1.07 (currently 1.08).

25%: The S&P 500 Index falls by 1.25% to 1.75%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds decreases by 12-14 basis points. The dollar acts as a safe-haven asset, with the euro/USD declining to 1.03-1.05.

35%: The S&P 500 Index falls by 2% to 3%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds decreases by 20 basis points. The euro/USD falls to 1.01-1.03.

Good outcome?
Lower comprehensive tariffs (10% or lower), excluding VAT, and expressing a willingness to discuss partial tariffs, including a 25% tariff on aluminum/steel, a 25% tariff on automobiles, a 200% tariff on champagne/wine from the EU, and possibly a 25% tariff on chips and pharmaceuticals. Additionally, avoiding tariffs on shipping vessels would be a positive factor.

Bad outcome?
Comprehensive tariffs higher than expected, including VAT, plus additional sector tariffs. Furthermore, any sales bans or penalties/tariffs on shipping vessels would be worse outcomes, such as a complete ban on selling chips to China. According to Bloomberg, about 17% of Nvidia's revenue in fiscal year 2024 comes from China. #美国加征关税

#美国加征关税

Today, Trump will announce a new round of tariffs on multiple trading partners. In recent weeks, there has been significant uncertainty in the market, as the scope and magnitude of the tariffs remain unclear. This is clearly a deliberate arrangement by Trump, who hopes to leverage this uncertainty to his advantage. Moreover, if the market were already aware of the upcoming tariff measures, the stock market would have already priced them in, and Trump's aim seems to be to slow down the stock market and economic growth. He can only achieve this by maintaining market panic.

Many expect that today's uncertainty will be resolved and the stock market will rebound accordingly, but I believe things are not that simple. While we will have a clearer understanding of tariff policies today, investors will not underestimate their mid-term impact on the U.S. economy and stock market. The real issue to focus on is whether the high and broad tariffs will persist or just be used as bargaining chips. Whether today's market reaction is a case of "bad news fully priced in leads to good news" is not important. If there are no major surprises, a short-term easing of market sentiment is possible, after all, the market has already priced in some of the tariff news over the past few days.

However, if tariffs remain long-term or if trading partners take strong retaliatory measures, market concerns will intensify further. The general consensus is that higher and broader tariffs will weaken the profitability of publicly traded companies. As corporate performance declines, the stock market may experience a valuation reset in the coming weeks or months, and even a positive short-term response cannot change the overall trend. Remember, economic growth slowing not only can lead to a stock market correction but could also push it into a bear market, which is exactly what happened in 2018. If today's tariff policy is postponed, the short-term market may experience some relief, but uncertainty will still be deferred to some point in the future.

#美国加征关税

What we see in the market are just the manipulation phenomena of altcoins due to low trading volume... Currently, trading volume is still concentrated on BTC, simply because BTCD has not yet reached its peak...

When BTCD peaks, we will witness the top of BTC in this cycle, followed by a rebound in some altcoins, and significant surges in some potential coins. After a few weeks of growth, the market will eventually face a comprehensive collapse.

This is the cycle... Then, after experiencing a few months of silence, a new cycle will begin again.

Secondly, price trends are usually just early bulls and late bears fighting over a meaningless range, laying out their strategies in advance for the arrival of events. Then, when the event occurs, all these games become irrelevant, and the real market movement will begin.

Trading events are like trading FOMC—first a rise, then a drop, followed by back-and-forth fluctuations, washing out those who entered early... Only when everyone is exhausted from the turmoil does the real market begin.

What we need is just a sustained trading volume near price X, so we can see the ultimate actual trend.

Placed some buy orders at $CHR 0.0912, stop loss set at 0.086
Let's see if I can make a short-term trade 😉

Many small market cap coins on Binance have experienced some strange situations, all plummeting at the same time, with a large number of positions being liquidated.
If you are trading these coins, it is advisable to be cautious. You can take a look at $ACT , $DEXE , $DF , $HIPPO, etc.

It feels like a certain market maker has been banned or liquidated.

$BTC - Short covering market is unfolding, with prices rising while OI is decreasing. This is because we confirmed the support role of dvwap.

After the New York opening, the trend is weak, many people have become impatient and excited to short the breakdown, but now they are trapped and being squeezed.

If the price retraces to 85/87K, we can gradually increase short positions because I do not believe the bottom has formed yet; this wave of increase is purely a mechanical rebound.

This week, a series of macroeconomic events will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. As the market anticipates the official implementation of tariffs on April 2, the cryptocurrency market has already preemptively reflected the fluctuations of the stock market. Last week, Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars and medical products, hinting that similar measures may be taken against more countries, which has shocked the market. Currently, the market expects over 25 countries to face tariffs exceeding 20%.

If the final tariffs are lower than expected, or if there are further delays, the market may rebound. However, it is still uncertain which specific countries will be affected, and more importantly, how these countries will retaliate. Especially the latter could lead to an escalation in the trade war. Although the recent decline in the cryptocurrency market and the stock market has somewhat priced in the impact of tariffs, due to the uncertainty surrounding April 2, I believe there will still be significant market volatility this week; hence, the tension over tariffs has not been fully digested.

Unlike the past few weeks where trade tensions were mainly reflected in the U.S. stock market, global markets have also begun to decline sharply, with investors expecting multiple countries to be included in the list affected by tariffs. For example, Japan's export-oriented index, the Nikkei, fell 4% today, as the market worries that Japan's exports may be restricted due to tariffs. This downward trend in global financial markets is likely to affect the cryptocurrency market as well, making risk management this week more important than ever.

In addition to the implementation of tariffs on April 2, there are several macroeconomic events this week that may affect market price movements, including tomorrow's U.S. job openings data and Friday's employment data. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also speak on Friday. Before the formal implementation of the tariff policy, it remains difficult to make clear judgments on these events. However, traditionally, if employment data is weak, it may exacerbate market concerns about economic recession and stagflation (concurrent economic growth slowdown and rising inflation), especially given that the previously released PCE inflation data exceeded expectations.

$CRV Give me the bottom again
I think the market will quickly hit the bottom within the next 10 days

#BSC链热浪来袭

BSC/Base has been performing well on-chain, and I believe that if (importantly, 'if') Base can maintain enough users and ensure sufficient player participation, it will eventually reflect the utility season mentioned by the community.

Seeing projects like KTA stand out in this space, along with other past utility projects, are all positive signs.

BSC is more oriented towards junk projects; CZ is trying hard to promote and force attention on them. However, as the mainnet and Sol are currently outdated, it is still doing well.
If you can get involved early and make money, I recommend playing the projects they promote and then moving on to the next recommended project after making a profit.

$SUI is what I bought from AK's recommendation yesterday, and I've currently eaten 7%. I just saw him say I can sell some, so I sold a bit, just in case it pulls back again, so I won’t end up with nothing.
I've also moved the stop loss for the remaining spot to my entry price, so if BTC doesn't crash, the remaining target range will be between 3.4-3.6 as AK mentioned.

$FLUX has finally welcomed a wave of increase, but I don't know how high this scam can go. Currently, it has gained 6%. I hope BTC doesn't encounter obstacles that drag down the market, otherwise we will have to wait....

$BTC Key resistance level at 0.75, remember... below this level, it is unfavorable for the bullish scenario

$BERA very strong, if the market maintains its upward trend, we will achieve substantial returns, currently looks very good, approaching the upper range.

If BTC breaks through 88k and drives altcoins to soar, we will achieve substantial returns!