Market fluctuations of various outcomes!

10%: Assuming the implementation of a 10% comprehensive tariff, while canceling/replacing tariffs on Canada/Mexico, but excluding China: The S&P 500 Index rises by 2% to 2.5%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rises by about 10 basis points. The euro/USD falls to 1.06-1.07 (currently 1.08).

25%: The S&P 500 Index falls by 1.25% to 1.75%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds decreases by 12-14 basis points. The dollar acts as a safe-haven asset, with the euro/USD declining to 1.03-1.05.

35%: The S&P 500 Index falls by 2% to 3%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds decreases by 20 basis points. The euro/USD falls to 1.01-1.03.

Good outcome?

Lower comprehensive tariffs (10% or lower), excluding VAT, and expressing a willingness to discuss partial tariffs, including a 25% tariff on aluminum/steel, a 25% tariff on automobiles, a 200% tariff on champagne/wine from the EU, and possibly a 25% tariff on chips and pharmaceuticals. Additionally, avoiding tariffs on shipping vessels would be a positive factor.

Bad outcome?

Comprehensive tariffs higher than expected, including VAT, plus additional sector tariffs. Furthermore, any sales bans or penalties/tariffs on shipping vessels would be worse outcomes, such as a complete ban on selling chips to China. According to Bloomberg, about 17% of Nvidia's revenue in fiscal year 2024 comes from China. #美国加征关税