#美国加征关税

Today, Trump will announce a new round of tariffs on multiple trading partners. In recent weeks, there has been significant uncertainty in the market, as the scope and magnitude of the tariffs remain unclear. This is clearly a deliberate arrangement by Trump, who hopes to leverage this uncertainty to his advantage. Moreover, if the market were already aware of the upcoming tariff measures, the stock market would have already priced them in, and Trump's aim seems to be to slow down the stock market and economic growth. He can only achieve this by maintaining market panic.

Many expect that today's uncertainty will be resolved and the stock market will rebound accordingly, but I believe things are not that simple. While we will have a clearer understanding of tariff policies today, investors will not underestimate their mid-term impact on the U.S. economy and stock market. The real issue to focus on is whether the high and broad tariffs will persist or just be used as bargaining chips. Whether today's market reaction is a case of "bad news fully priced in leads to good news" is not important. If there are no major surprises, a short-term easing of market sentiment is possible, after all, the market has already priced in some of the tariff news over the past few days.

However, if tariffs remain long-term or if trading partners take strong retaliatory measures, market concerns will intensify further. The general consensus is that higher and broader tariffs will weaken the profitability of publicly traded companies. As corporate performance declines, the stock market may experience a valuation reset in the coming weeks or months, and even a positive short-term response cannot change the overall trend. Remember, economic growth slowing not only can lead to a stock market correction but could also push it into a bear market, which is exactly what happened in 2018. If today's tariff policy is postponed, the short-term market may experience some relief, but uncertainty will still be deferred to some point in the future.