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Fortunately, I got in before the data came out yesterday, otherwise I would have missed this wave. The important economic data mentioned earlier had a big drop before, and after the data was announced, it will soar. This pattern is currently effective $ETH
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Generally speaking, if there is a decline before the release of important economic data, the probability of an increase after the release is relatively high, and vice versa. Therefore, this time point can be a good opportunity to go long. If there are short positions, it may also be wise to reduce the short position size first. My short position has basically reached the cost line, so I sold it. Now I have bought some spot, and the Nasdaq futures index is currently rising. I estimate that filling the gap may be delayed now.
Filling the gap may exist, but it may not wait for me to operate, so it's better to be cautious. I did some hedging before, so this wave can be considered a small profit.
Filling the gap may exist, but it may not wait for me to operate, so it's better to be cautious. I did some hedging before, so this wave can be considered a small profit.
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Generally, gaps are filled the next day, and the probability of them being filled within a week is relatively low. Of course, there are also gaps filled after a few months, with even lower probability. For example, the gap from last year's election was filled only in March this year, which has a longer time span. So, from a probabilistic standpoint, if a gap is discovered the next day, one can consider opening a small short position, but the position size should generally be cautious.
Next, BTC is likely to fill the gap, the CME gap is around 114000. When it reaches this level, you can consider buying spot. I previously bought some short positions at 117000, and at that time I judged the pullback too early. However, generally speaking, there will always be a pullback after a rapid rise, especially when the main force pushes the price up at 5 AM, which is exactly when the CME trading is closed for 1 hour (5:00-6:00). The main force's intention is particularly obvious, so there is a need to fill the gap.
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Next, BTC is likely to fill the gap, the CME gap is around 114000. When it reaches this level, you can consider buying spot. I previously bought some short positions at 117000, and at that time I judged the pullback too early. However, generally speaking, there will always be a pullback after a rapid rise, especially when the main force pushes the price up at 5 AM, which is exactly when the CME trading is closed for 1 hour (5:00-6:00). The main force's intention is particularly obvious, so there is a need to fill the gap.
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#BinanceTurns8 $ETH ETH may perform well, the current ETH premium is a bit high, this week the market needs altcoin bulls, of course, the probability of interest rate cuts this month has still decreased.
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#BinanceTurns8together is still BNB stable, not only stable in price, but also has a very good experience
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BTC shows a significant top divergence on the 4-hour candlestick chart, but the MACD red bars are shrinking. Caution is needed when going long here. Although this week is America's crypto week, which may bring some positive news, one should also be wary of the risk of positive news turning into negative outcomes.
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The significant increase this time is mainly due to leveraged futures. In fact, the mechanics are quite simple. We notice that the price spike occurred at 5 AM, which is when CME futures had just paused trading for an hour. When trading resumed at 6 AM, there was a gap up opening. In the past, such situations typically lead to a gap being filled later, usually within a day, although it can sometimes take longer. Therefore, the possibility of a pullback is larger next, and we should pay attention to the price of 114000, which is about where the gap will be filled.
Additionally, once the large short positions (with significant quant and hedging orders here) are liquidated, there will be an imbalance between long and short positions. As a result, any further significant increase will only occur if the spot market takes over. If the spot market takes little or no action, the price will fall. Hence, I will engage in a hedging strategy here and wait for fluctuations.
$BTC
Additionally, once the large short positions (with significant quant and hedging orders here) are liquidated, there will be an imbalance between long and short positions. As a result, any further significant increase will only occur if the spot market takes over. If the spot market takes little or no action, the price will fall. Hence, I will engage in a hedging strategy here and wait for fluctuations.
$BTC
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Why is it that so many BNB tokens are burned every quarter, yet the price doesn't go up?
The main reason is that the burned tokens are not in circulation, meaning they weren't purchased from the market. Therefore, without buying pressure, the price doesn't rise. Additionally, everyone's attention has shifted to other cryptocurrencies, leading to lower expectations and consequently smaller fluctuations in BNB's price $BNB
The main reason is that the burned tokens are not in circulation, meaning they weren't purchased from the market. Therefore, without buying pressure, the price doesn't rise. Additionally, everyone's attention has shifted to other cryptocurrencies, leading to lower expectations and consequently smaller fluctuations in BNB's price $BNB
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The market has risen as expected, and there may be a slight pullback next, but essentially the overall trend has not changed. This rise is mainly due to the Fed's minutes released in the early hours, which hinted at a possible interest rate cut, thus influencing the coin prices. Of course, the probability of a rate cut at the end of July has not decreased, and we still believe there is a high likelihood of interest rate cuts starting in September. Right now is just the prelude, so the market's fluctuations before the rise are quite necessary, as the main forces also need to shake off some floating capital. The coming period may be a good opportunity.
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More and more US stock listing formulas are starting to use MicroStrategy's approach to accumulate ETH, which is positive for ETH in the long term. However, these companies generally have not performed well before, so their stock prices seem to rise more sharply than MicroStrategy's. However, for ETH, there hasn't been much increase. Therefore, in the short term, ETH still needs to continue to consolidate below 3000 for a while, and it can only surpass 3000 when the time is right. Being conservative, it should be able to reach a new high this year, but I estimate it will take a few months.
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Cryptocurrency Market Observation: Weakened Tariff Impact and Market Trends Under Rate Cut Expectations
$BTC $ETH
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown new dynamics amid multiple factors at play. On one hand, the impact of traditional financial market tariff policies on cryptocurrencies is gradually weakening; on the other hand, the expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have become the market's focus. Although the likelihood of a rate cut at the end of July is low, the probability of a rate cut in September is increasing. Coupled with the fact that the market has just gone through a round of adjustments, prices may see a rebound in the short term. However, due to the popularity of 'crypto-stocks' (the enhanced correlation between cryptocurrencies and the stock market), a comprehensive bull market for altcoins is unlikely to reoccur, and market funds will still concentrate on mainstream assets, especially BTC, ETH, and SOL.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown new dynamics amid multiple factors at play. On one hand, the impact of traditional financial market tariff policies on cryptocurrencies is gradually weakening; on the other hand, the expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have become the market's focus. Although the likelihood of a rate cut at the end of July is low, the probability of a rate cut in September is increasing. Coupled with the fact that the market has just gone through a round of adjustments, prices may see a rebound in the short term. However, due to the popularity of 'crypto-stocks' (the enhanced correlation between cryptocurrencies and the stock market), a comprehensive bull market for altcoins is unlikely to reoccur, and market funds will still concentrate on mainstream assets, especially BTC, ETH, and SOL.
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On the daily chart level, BTC is currently between the BOLL middle band and upper band, with the price on its way back to the middle band, specifically around 105,000 to 106,000. MACD and other indicators are trending downwards, so the first support level can be expected at 105,000, mainly depending on the news front.
The core news for this week is the U.S. tariffs on the 9th. Although the enforcement period has been extended to August 1st, July 9th remains an important time node, and the market is likely to react.
Another key point is the interest rate meeting at the end of this month. Currently, the market predicts a very low possibility of a rate cut, so if one wants to wait for a rate cut, it would be in September. The market funds in July are in a recovery process, so there generally won't be significant changes this month. The market continues to maintain low popularity and trading volume.
The core news for this week is the U.S. tariffs on the 9th. Although the enforcement period has been extended to August 1st, July 9th remains an important time node, and the market is likely to react.
Another key point is the interest rate meeting at the end of this month. Currently, the market predicts a very low possibility of a rate cut, so if one wants to wait for a rate cut, it would be in September. The market funds in July are in a recovery process, so there generally won't be significant changes this month. The market continues to maintain low popularity and trading volume.
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This week, the market is worth paying attention to the trade negotiations on July 9th led by Trump. So, will there be a delay this time? Currently, opinions are divided. In fact, it is easy to determine whether there will be a delay.
It mainly depends on the progress of negotiations with China, India, the European Union, and Japan and South Korea. As of now, the negotiations with China and India have been completed, so the next critical progress lies with Japan, South Korea, and the EU. If these are completed smoothly, then it is highly likely there will not be a delay, and the market outlook will be quite clear, with a high probability of a significant increase.
Conversely, if things do not go smoothly, there is a high probability of a delay, and market expectations will be much smaller, with a high likelihood of a modest increase or even a potential decrease.
As for the other countries, they are not as significant in trade with the U.S., so they can be selectively ignored #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH
It mainly depends on the progress of negotiations with China, India, the European Union, and Japan and South Korea. As of now, the negotiations with China and India have been completed, so the next critical progress lies with Japan, South Korea, and the EU. If these are completed smoothly, then it is highly likely there will not be a delay, and the market outlook will be quite clear, with a high probability of a significant increase.
Conversely, if things do not go smoothly, there is a high probability of a delay, and market expectations will be much smaller, with a high likelihood of a modest increase or even a potential decrease.
As for the other countries, they are not as significant in trade with the U.S., so they can be selectively ignored #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH
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Don't ask 'Where is the next BSC hotspot?' anymore — the last trend was MEME, and the next one will definitely be chain games + MEME.
And Playfun has already built the entire ecosystem without telling stories or making empty promises.
🔥 They are currently launching a $50,000 cash pool to hold a Web3 creation competition!
📅 Event time: July 7th 14:00 - July 12th 14:00
🏆 Rewards:
1st place $5000
2nd-5th place $3000 each
6th-10th place $500 each
11th-20th place $300 each
11th-2000th place Random airdrop!
📸 How to participate:
Just share a picture or share your Playfun gaming experience or screenshots
📲 Post on any platform like X, Douyin, Xiaohongshu, Weibo, etc.
🏷️ Include the topic #PLAYFUN
📩 Then send a screenshot or link to the judge @ALE (TG)
Playfun is not a project that just shouts slogans, it truly treats GameFi as a product to develop and a career to promote.
This is not 'watching the excitement', it's 'seizing the trend'. Don't miss this wave.
@PLAYFUN__BSC
And Playfun has already built the entire ecosystem without telling stories or making empty promises.
🔥 They are currently launching a $50,000 cash pool to hold a Web3 creation competition!
📅 Event time: July 7th 14:00 - July 12th 14:00
🏆 Rewards:
1st place $5000
2nd-5th place $3000 each
6th-10th place $500 each
11th-20th place $300 each
11th-2000th place Random airdrop!
📸 How to participate:
Just share a picture or share your Playfun gaming experience or screenshots
📲 Post on any platform like X, Douyin, Xiaohongshu, Weibo, etc.
🏷️ Include the topic #PLAYFUN
📩 Then send a screenshot or link to the judge @ALE (TG)
Playfun is not a project that just shouts slogans, it truly treats GameFi as a product to develop and a career to promote.
This is not 'watching the excitement', it's 'seizing the trend'. Don't miss this wave.
@PLAYFUN__BSC
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From the perspective of market sentiment, it is still recovering. June is generally a period of market stagnation, mainly due to companies' semi-annual reports leading to reduced market liquidity in June, which is why the market does not pick up. By July, things usually improve significantly, as has been the case in previous years. Therefore, this month is a good opportunity for positioning $BTC $ETH
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How Does the Nasdaq Affect Cryptocurrency Price Fluctuations?
The Nasdaq, as a leading global technology stock index and stock exchange, has recently influenced the price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies (such as Bitcoin BTC and Ethereum ETH) to some extent. However, this influence is not a direct causal relationship but is transmitted indirectly through market sentiment, investor behavior, and macroeconomic factors. In this case, how exactly does the Nasdaq influence cryptocurrencies?
We believe this can be summarized in the following points:
Linkage of market sentiment and risk appetite
The Nasdaq is primarily composed of technology stocks, and its fluctuations usually reflect investor confidence and preference for high-risk assets. Cryptocurrencies, as a class of highly volatile and high-risk assets, share psychological similarity with tech stocks. When the Nasdaq rises, investors are often more willing to chase high-return assets, driving funds into the cryptocurrency market; conversely, when the Nasdaq falls, risk-averse sentiment rises, and funds may exit from cryptocurrencies.
We believe this can be summarized in the following points:
Linkage of market sentiment and risk appetite
The Nasdaq is primarily composed of technology stocks, and its fluctuations usually reflect investor confidence and preference for high-risk assets. Cryptocurrencies, as a class of highly volatile and high-risk assets, share psychological similarity with tech stocks. When the Nasdaq rises, investors are often more willing to chase high-return assets, driving funds into the cryptocurrency market; conversely, when the Nasdaq falls, risk-averse sentiment rises, and funds may exit from cryptocurrencies.
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V didn't attend the cryptocurrency conference at the White House
很大很大的橙子
--
Trump's son tells you to hold long-term, families
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Where is the price support for BTC? An analysis from miners' costs, CME gaps, and ETF costs.
The recent drop in BTC has left many people at a loss, exposing the investment risks in the crypto market. For retail investors, the dynamics of large funds are often very crucial. Therefore, today we analyze the price based on miners' mining costs, CME gaps, and ETF holding costs.
Mining Costs
Mining costs primarily include the market share of various types of miners, as well as current mining revenues and shutdown prices, some of which we can find in F2Pool data.
F2Pool provides daily mining income and shutdown prices for various mining machines on its website. This data is based on the current Bitcoin network difficulty, hash rate, and electricity price (default $0.06/kWh).
Mining Costs
Mining costs primarily include the market share of various types of miners, as well as current mining revenues and shutdown prices, some of which we can find in F2Pool data.
F2Pool provides daily mining income and shutdown prices for various mining machines on its website. This data is based on the current Bitcoin network difficulty, hash rate, and electricity price (default $0.06/kWh).
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Discussing Ethereum's Price: An Analysis of Costs from Staking to ETFs
As one of the core platforms in the blockchain world, Ethereum's continuous evolution and market performance are closely monitored. Currently, the market is not very optimistic about ETH's performance, and many believe that ETH has dragged down the altcoin bull market. Therefore, for investors and institutions, understanding the cost of ETH under significant declines and determining whether the current price has reached the bottom is crucial.
During the POW period, we could calculate the production cost of each ETH through mining input and output, but during the POS era, it is harder to determine the cost moat of ETH. Coupled with ETF holdings, this is also an important reference factor for short-term market support for investors. Today, we will analyze the cost of Ethereum from the perspectives of staking mechanisms and ETF inflows, as well as their impact on investors and the ecosystem.
During the POW period, we could calculate the production cost of each ETH through mining input and output, but during the POS era, it is harder to determine the cost moat of ETH. Coupled with ETF holdings, this is also an important reference factor for short-term market support for investors. Today, we will analyze the cost of Ethereum from the perspectives of staking mechanisms and ETF inflows, as well as their impact on investors and the ecosystem.
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