The recent drop in BTC has left many people at a loss, exposing the investment risks in the crypto market. For retail investors, the dynamics of large funds are often very crucial. Therefore, today we analyze the price based on miners' mining costs, CME gaps, and ETF holding costs.
Mining Costs
Mining costs primarily include the market share of various types of miners, as well as current mining revenues and shutdown prices, some of which we can find in F2Pool data.
F2Pool provides daily mining income and shutdown prices for various mining machines on its website. This data is based on the current Bitcoin network difficulty, hash rate, and electricity price (default $0.06/kWh).
Below are the daily income and shutdown prices of mainstream mining machines from F2Pool. I will use the S19 Pro as a benchmark, adjusting the income of other models and calculating the shutdown prices.
Antminer S19 Pro
Hash Rate: 110 TH/s
Power Consumption: 3250W
Shutdown Price: $73,239/BTC
Antminer S19 XP
Hash Rate: 140 TH/s
Power Consumption: 3010W
Shutdown Price: $53,242/BTC
Whatsminer M50S
Hash Rate: 126 TH/s
Power Consumption: 3276W
Shutdown Price: $64,481/BTC
Avalon A1566
Hash Rate: 185 TH/s
Power Consumption: 3681W
Shutdown Price: $49,316/BTC
Antminer S21 Pro
Hash Rate: 234 TH/s
Power Consumption: 3510W
Shutdown Price: $37,234/BTC
Mainstream Mining Machine Market Share (S19 series 55%, Whatsminer 22%, Avalon 12%, others like S21 11%):
Overall Shutdown Price: $58,891/BTC
This price represents a broad miners' shutdown price, without considering corresponding costs, including miner costs, venue, operating costs, etc. Therefore, the comprehensive shutdown price is believed to be between $59,000 and $60,000. In fact, when the price exceeds the shutdown price by 30% (some miners have already shut down), the market will feel the pain brought about by the price drop, which is around $62,000.
Price Predictions Due to Filling Gaps
The notion of Bitcoin 'filling gaps' primarily comes from the price gap phenomenon in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market. Since the Bitcoin spot market trades 24/7, while the CME futures market is closed on weekends, there often exists a price difference between Friday's closing price and the following Monday's opening price, forming the so-called 'gap'. It is believed in the market that these gaps tend to be filled, meaning prices will tend to return to the gap area. Similar theories have support in traditional financial markets (like stocks and futures), but whether the reality of Bitcoin fully aligns with this requires analysis of historical data and the current market environment.
Historically, Bitcoin CME gaps have exhibited certain filling patterns, but not all gaps will be filled, and the timing and method of filling depend on market trends:
During the bull markets of 2017 and 2020-2021, many downward forming gaps (i.e., Monday's opening price lower than Friday's closing price) were eventually filled. This typically happens during a sustained price increase, with market sentiment high, and investors pushing prices to break previous highs. For instance, after Bitcoin broke $20,000 in 2020, several previous low gaps were gradually filled.
During the 2018 bear market or the 2022 crypto market downturn, upward gaps (where Monday's opening price is higher than Friday's closing price) may also be filled, but often require a long time and are accompanied by significant price volatility. For example, at the end of 2021, when Bitcoin fell from a high of $69,000, it filled some previous high gaps.
Unfilled Gap Situation
Not all gaps will be filled. If the market enters an extreme trend (such as a sustained rise or fall), some smaller gaps may be overlooked. Statistically, about 70%-80% of CME gaps are filled within weeks to months, but the specific probability varies with cycles.
In summary, the 'tradition' of Bitcoin filling gaps exists to some extent, especially in volatile markets, but in strong trends (such as bull or bear markets), prices may prioritize following the trend rather than strictly filling gaps.
Unfilled Gaps: Recently, there are two gaps on the CME chart, one at a low level (e.g., $70,000 - $80,000 range) and another at a high level (e.g., $90,000 - $95,000 range).
The tradition of Bitcoin filling gaps has certain historical basis, but it is not an absolute rule. Past data shows that most gaps will be filled in the medium to short term, but in strong trends they may be overlooked.
ETF Holding Cost Analysis
Analyze based on key market data:
BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT):
According to Blockworks ETF Tracker and BlackRock's official website, IBIT has accumulated net inflows of over $50 billion since its launch in January 2024, holding approximately 500,000 BTC, with large purchases concentrated from June to November 2024, as BTC prices rose from $60,000 to $100,000, estimating the average buying cost is around $70,000 - $80,000.
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC):
Fidelity reports that FBTC holdings are approximately 200,000 BTC, with AUM around $20 billion. Inflows peaked in the first quarter of 2024 (between $50,000 - $60,000) and the fourth quarter (between $80,000 - $100,000), with an estimated average cost of $65,000 - $75,000.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC):
GBTC holds approximately 300,000 BTC, with early buying costs extremely low ($20,000 - $40,000), but significant outflows occurred after transitioning to an ETF in 2024. New funds are concentrated in the $80,000 - $100,000 range, with a comprehensive cost around $50,000 - $70,000 (affected by the early low costs).
Other ETFs (e.g., Bitwise BITB, VanEck HODL):
Total holdings of 150,000 - 200,000 BTC, AUM approximately $15 billion - $20 billion, mostly accumulated in the second half of 2024, with costs around $70,000 - $90,000.
Investopedia (2024-12-02) indicates that the average buying cost of BTC ETFs varies due to economies of scale and management fee differences, estimated to be between $70,000 - $85,000.
Analysis by Swan Bitcoin (2024-07-13) shows that institutional accumulation is concentrated after the 2024 halving (between $50,000 - $70,000) and during the end-of-year rally (between $90,000 - $100,000).
Comprehensive estimates based on inflow timing and BTC price trends suggest that the average holding cost of BTC ETFs is roughly $70,000 - $85,000 per coin.
As of February 26, 2025, BTC spot ETFs have become the main tool for institutional investment in Bitcoin since their approval in January 2024. Below is the holding situation of major institutions (based on public data and trend extrapolation):
BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT):
Position: Approximately 500,000 BTC (as of early 2025).
Assets Under Management (AUM): Over $50 billion (exceeded in December 2024).
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC):
Position: Approximately 200,000 BTC.
AUM: Approximately $20 billion.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC):
Position: Approximately 300,000 BTC (down from 600,000 BTC at the beginning of 2024 due to outflows after transitioning to ETF).
AUM: Approximately $30 billion.
Other ETFs (Bitwise BITB, VanEck HODL, ARK 21Shares, etc.):
Total Holdings: Approximately 150,000 - 200,000 BTC.
AUM: Approximately $15 billion - $20 billion.
Total: BTC ETF holdings are approximately 1.15 million - 1.2 million BTC, accounting for 5.5% - 5.7% of the total BTC supply (21 million).
Composition of BTC ETF Holding Costs
Historical Buying Range:
When the ETF was approved in January 2024, the BTC price was approximately $45,000.
In November 2024, after Trump's victory, BTC broke through $100,000.
In February 2025, price fluctuations were between $95,000 - $105,000.
Institutional Average Cost Estimate:
BlackRock IBIT: Large purchases were concentrated in mid-2024 (between $60,000 - $80,000), with an average cost of approximately $70,000 - $80,000.
Fidelity FBTC: Accumulation began at the 2024 low ($50,000 - $60,000), with an average cost of approximately $65,000 - $75,000.
Grayscale GBTC: Early holding costs were low ($20,000 - $40,000), but after outflows in 2024, the re-entry cost increased to $80,000 - $90,000.
Average Cost: Approximately $70,000 - $80,000 per coin.
This is close to the costs we previously found in the data, which also indirectly indicates the reliability of the data.
Summary
Based on the above three dimensions, Bitcoin's price support can be divided into the following levels:
First Support Level: $77,000 - $85,000 (ETF holding cost + CME gap)
This is the core cost range for institutional investors. The current price of $84,000 is at the upper end of this range, indicating that the market may be testing the institutional floor. If it stabilizes, a short-term rebound may occur; if it falls below $77,000, it could trigger more selling.
Second Support Level: $62,000 (mining cost)
The mining cost ($62,000) is a stronger technical support. If the price falls further to this level, it may trigger miners to reduce production and attract bottom-fishing funds, forming a 'double bottom'.
Third Support Level: $59,000 - $60,000 (comprehensive shutdown price)
If the market is extremely fearful and falls below $62,000, the shutdown price range could become the last line of defense, but this probability is low (generally at the end of a bear market).
