As one of the core platforms in the blockchain world, Ethereum's continuous evolution and market performance are closely monitored. Currently, the market is not very optimistic about ETH's performance, and many believe that ETH has dragged down the altcoin bull market. Therefore, for investors and institutions, understanding the cost of ETH under significant declines and determining whether the current price has reached the bottom is crucial.
During the POW period, we could calculate the production cost of each ETH through mining input and output, but during the POS era, it is harder to determine the cost moat of ETH. Coupled with ETF holdings, this is also an important reference factor for short-term market support for investors. Today, we will analyze the cost of Ethereum from the perspectives of staking mechanisms and ETF inflows, as well as their impact on investors and the ecosystem.
Staking Cost
The staking yield of Ethereum will fluctuate based on the total amount of ETH staked in the network, the number of validators, and network activity. I cannot access real-time on-chain data directly but can obtain the latest estimates as of February 26, 2025, from publicly available and credible sources. Here is information provided by several authoritative sources:
Staking Rewards: As of February 15, 2025, the reported average staking yield for Ethereum is approximately 2.93%.
Coinbase July 2023 data updated to February 2025, showing the current estimated yield is 2.03%, mentioning that 30 days ago it was 1.87%.
Bitcoin Market Journal (October 2024): Points out that the yield fluctuated between 4%-6% after the Merge in 2023, reaching over 10% under optimal conditions, but the average for 2024 is closer to 4.4%.
Compass Financial Technologies (January 2025): The STYETH index tracks daily net staking yields, indicating that yields vary with network usage, with recent data trending towards 3%-4%.
Considering all these sources, due to the continuous growth of the total amount of staked ETH (reaching 31.4 million ETH by April 2024, accounting for 26% of total supply, possibly higher in 2025), the yield has gradually decreased. Assuming that the average APY in February 2025 is between 2.5%-3.5%, I will use 3% as a baseline for calculations and will provide range adjustments later.
Net Cost = Initial Investment Cost - Cumulative Revenue as of now.
December 2020 - June 2021
Staked Amount: 5 million ETH
Average Price: $600/ETH
Total Investment: 3 billion USD
Staking Duration: 4.2 years
Yield: Early stage 10% (2 years, 2020-2022), later stage 3% (2.2 years, 2023-2025):
Net Cost: 3 billion - 4.5 billion = -1.5 billion USD
July 2021 - December 2021
Staked Amount: 10 million ETH
Average Price: $3500/ETH
Total Investment: 35 billion USD
Staking Duration: 3.6 years
Net Cost: 35 billion - 4.95 billion = 30.05 billion USD
January 2022 - December 2022
Staked Amount: 6 million ETH
Average Price: $1300/ETH
Total Investment: 7.8 billion USD
Staking Duration: 3 years
Yield: Average 3%:
Net Cost: 7.8 billion - 1.68 billion = 6.12 billion USD
January 2023 - December 2023
Staked Amount: 8 million ETH
Average Price: $2000/ETH
Total Investment: 16 billion USD
Staking Duration: 2 years
Yield: 3%:
Net Cost: 16 billion - 1.47 billion = 14.53 billion USD
January 2024 - February 2025
Staked Amount: 7 million ETH
Average Price: $3000/ETH
Total Investment: 21 billion USD
Staking Duration: 1.2 years
Yield: 3%:
Net Cost: 21 billion - 0.75 billion = 20.25 billion USD
Total Net Cost and Average Price
Total Investment: 82.8 billion USD
Total Revenue: 4.5 + 4.95 + 1.68 + 1.47 + 0.75 = 13.35 billion USD
Total Net Cost: 82.8 billion - 13.35 billion = 69.45 billion USD
Total Staked Amount: 36 million ETH (as of early February)
Net Average Price: 69.45 billion / 36 million ≈ $1930/ETH
If the yield fluctuates between 2.5%-3.5%:
According to the latest network data (average APY of 3% in 2025), the net cost for staking Ethereum is approximately $1930/ETH.
ETF Net Inflow Cost
Since ETFs are spot products, their prices closely track the market price of Ethereum. We can estimate this cost through historical net inflow data and Ethereum prices during the same period.
As of February 26, 2025:
Total Net Inflows: According to recent data, the historical cumulative net inflow for the Ethereum Spot ETF is $3.154 billion (as of February 21). Considering recent fluctuations (e.g., a net inflow of $19.0192 million on February 19, a net outflow of $8.9166 million on February 21), assuming the net inflow changes little from February 22 to 26, the total could be between $3.15 billion and $3.17 billion.
Total Net Asset Value: As of February 21, it is $9.981 billion, adjusted slightly on February 25, close to $10 billion.
Ethereum Price: As of February 24, the Ethereum price is approximately $2722/ETH.
Since the ETF has gradually accumulated net inflows since its listing on July 23, 2024, we need to consider the price changes of Ethereum during this period:
Historical Price Range:
July 23, 2024 (Listing Day): Ethereum price is approximately $3400/ETH.
November 2024 (Low Point): The price once dropped to about $2500/ETH.
February 25, 2025: Price approximately $2722/ETH.
Net inflows are primarily concentrated after November 2024 (accelerated inflows after Trump's election), when the price gradually rebounded from $2500 to above $3000.
Average Purchase Price:
The net inflows of ETFs do not happen all at once but are distributed over time. Assuming that funds flow in roughly evenly with price changes (which may actually be concentrated on certain high inflow days, such as $295 million on November 11), a weighted average price can be used for approximation.
According to market observations, the average price of Ethereum from July 2024 to February 2025 is approximately $2800-$3000/ETH (considering a summer peak of $3400 and an autumn low of $2500).
The $3.154 billion of net inflows, when calculated at an average price of $2900/ETH, corresponds to the purchase of approximately 1.08 million ETH.
Initial holdings (such as assets during the conversion of Grayscale ETHE) may have been purchased at higher prices (such as above $4000), resulting in an overall average cost higher than the net inflow cost.
Results of the price cost of net inflows
In summary, as of February 24, 2025, the estimated average price cost of net inflows into the Ethereum ETF is:
Approximately $2800-$3000/ETH.
This range is based on historical price fluctuations and the time distribution of net inflows. Assuming a price of $2500/ETH, the 'paper gains' on the net inflow portion may be slightly negative or flat, but overall ETF assets may be in a state of unrealized losses due to the initial high-cost holdings.
Overall, as of now, the average price cost for net inflows into the Ethereum ETF is approximately between $2800-$3000/ETH. This cost reflects the average price at which investors have injected funds to buy Ethereum since its listing.
Summary
Overall, the difference between Ethereum's staking cost (approximately $1930) and the ETF net inflow cost ($2800-$3000) reflects the differing perceptions of ETH's value between retail participants and institutional investors. The relatively low staking cost provides more users with opportunities to participate in network security and earnings, while the high inflow cost of ETFs indicates institutional confidence in Ethereum's long-term potential. However, this difference may also signal market fragmentation: whether the appeal of staking ecosystem yields can synchronize with the market boom driven by ETFs still depends on Ethereum's performance under technological upgrades (such as scalability) and regulatory environments. In the future, if Ethereum can balance the decentralized characteristics driven by the community with institutional capital inflows, its leadership position in the blockchain space may be further solidified.