Last night's non-farm payroll data stunned the market, with the reported employment numbers being only about one-tenth of expectations. Even more bizarrely, from US stocks to BTC, risk assets did not follow the pattern of 'employment collapse => economic recession => risk assets decline', but instead all rose sharply. Thus, it had to be forcibly explained as 'employment collapse => the Federal Reserve must cut rates => risk assets rise.'

However, before the non-farm payroll data was released, the market had already priced in over a 90% probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. Such bad data coming out only adds another 10%, making it a certainty of a rate cut. How can the risk of recession be erased? Look closely at the intra-day data. It turns out that a pattern of rising first and then falling has played out.

This naturally also linked BTC to a roller coaster ride, surging from 70k to nearly 71.5k at 20:30, then suddenly plunging at 22:30, diving sharply from above 71k down to 69k.

Last night's surge and pullback directly led to a sharp decline in positions on the three major derivatives exchanges: Binance, OKEx, and Bybit; this shows that smart money on both the long and short sides significantly exited the market last night to avoid the impending volatility, so everyone may consider reducing their positions next.

This weekend may be different from usual; with the election day approaching, market manipulation is becoming more frequent, so everyone must pay attention to the volatility.

The panic from the news has already triggered some whales to sell off large amounts, and the market is becoming increasingly unstable. Currently, regardless of who is in charge of the White House, the market is highly likely to flash crash. Of course, these are just some of the things the market is reflecting to us right now. What the outcome will be is still left to time to decide. What we need to do is to firmly protect our principal and seize the opportunity for a decisive victory.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin shows very strong resistance above on the daily chart. The continuous three bearish candles have formed a descending box pattern, and the 69,700 position is currently still the upper edge of this box. According to the trend, the probability of a bearish engulfing candle following this is quite high.

So pay attention to the downward trend in the next couple of days, but I suggest not to chase too aggressively. The technical aspect is minor compared to the news; you must recognize the larger trend! Each time there is a decline, I advise you not to cut losses indiscriminately. Never reverse your operations; we slowly sell off chips during a large increase and bravely buy bloodied chips during a large decline. Why do so many people lose money in a bull market?

In the current environment, the market is in a bottom area, but it may not necessarily be the lowest point. We can't buy at the lowest point, and it doesn't matter that much if we do; what you can actually eat is what is real for you—can one person finish a whole pot of rice?

Being at the bottom doesn't mean it will reverse immediately; most of the time it won't. How much confidence do you have in your assets? What if it stays at the bottom for a long time without rising? While others' coins are flying, can you resist the temptation? When you hear certain news, does your heart race?

In the long cycle of spot trading, my best strategy is to hold mainstream stable coins. For example, the mainstream coins really don't pull back much during corrections, and then add leading coins, while taking small positions in some potential early developing assets, without making any swings.

If you want to layout strategies together and harvest from market makers, come find me! We provide daily market strategy analysis, quality coin recommendations, and also recommend coins with favorable news, with advance positioning. We also provide live market analysis for students from time to time! If you have any questions, you can directly consult me for the best answers!

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