After BTC broke 68,000 yesterday morning, it retraced and then started to rise, reaching 69,000 by 9 PM before slightly pulling back. In the early hours, it surged again and hit the 70,000 USD mark at 6 AM. After a decline since July 29, exactly three months later, BTC has once again crossed 70,000, aligning with my expectations for BTC from late last month.
BTC is strongly consolidating, strongly rising, and strongly adjusting.
70,000 is an important psychological level. Here, the MACD bars show divergence; divergence can lead to consolidation or a pullback, but shorting before a right-side signal appears is a very low-cost choice. Since 49,000, it has been an upward trend; do not short, do not fight the trend; going with the trend is the way to make money.
Altcoins have been my fleeting passion, BTC will always be my moonlight!
In recent years, there have been not just thousands of new coins in the crypto market? Just the meme generators on Solana can launch tens of thousands of coins in a day. More monks are appearing, but the meat is becoming scarcer. Coupled with new retail investors adhering to the principle of 'trading new, not old' and 'not taking over from each other', one can imagine how thoroughly disheartened those holding a lot of altcoins must feel!
It has been exactly 7 months since BTC broke new highs in March, and now BTC has returned to the throne of 70,000. Meanwhile, ETH has dropped 40% from its March peak.
BTC hits 70,000 for the first time, ETH at 4000.
BTC hits 70,000 for the second time, ETH at 3900.
BTC hits 70,000 for the third time, ETH at 3300.
BTC hits 70,000 for the fourth time, ETH at 2500.
This round of ETH seems to be caught in a crisis; the value of Ethereum is either 10,000 or zero. This round of ETH is heading towards such a turning point.
I summarized several reasons for the sluggishness of ETH:
1, Vitalik focusing on women, the foundation focusing on selling coins.
2, The 2% sell-off issue of Grayscale's holdings; so far, Grayscale has sold over 1 million ETH.
3, ETHFI, LDO, ENA, BB, and other series of new and old Ethereum concepts generate huge profits, but also huge bubbles.
ETH looks like its price isn't high, but many large stakers have obtained significant profits from other platforms while holding. In the low phase of ETH itself, the airdrops earned from staking will also be sold, and when large holders feel that staking and selling ETH prices are no longer suitable, they will continue to sell Ethereum. This will, in turn, affect the prices of Ethereum ecosystem tokens, forming a vicious cycle. About half a month ago, a large staker sold over 10,000 ETH after their staking expired; this is not an isolated case.
4, Losing left and right arms (ICO and DEFI)
In the last round, ETH almost had the largest bull market, and despite competition, it still dominated. In this round, it is mainly because SOL is too strong, along with other public chains. As ETH has lost its advantages in ICO and DEFI, and MEME can't keep up with SOL, it has been squeezed for living space; it is also a matter of the times.
Does ETH still have a chance in the future?
First, see if Vitalik returns to shore, innovates positively, and strengthens ETH's competitiveness.
Second, pay attention to when Grayscale's ETF reaches outflow balance. If the outflow does not reach balance, the institutions will not be willing to give Grayscale the opportunity to exit at high positions. From the data, Grayscale still has 2.63 million tokens, and the outflow speed is slow, which may take a long time.
Three also need to pay attention to the development of competitive products, which rise and fall.
So does Ethereum still have a chance?
Simply put: Yes, it might disappoint everyone in the short term, but there are still opportunities in the long term.
Lastly, after BTC breaks 70,000, here are some points the market needs to pay attention to:
(1) When BTC runs out of space, we need to focus on altcoins; what are altcoins? Everything except BTC;
(2) Pay attention to the counterattack of VC coins, which may be fierce;
(3) Pay attention to potential new narrative-level track opportunities; no fresh stories? ETH narrative? SOL's meme?
(4) The above is the overall thinking of expanding the results of the overall trend market; BTC's beta will always be there, and the barbell strategy is applicable;
(5) After the second-level market becomes active, the trading players who have recently been outshone by on-chain players may regain some momentum; the strategy of switching from altcoins back to Bitcoin will still be very useful.
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