Currently, BTC is still trying to hit the $70,000 pressure level, but has not been able to break through it effectively. However, from a technical point of view, for example, the EMA20 daily line has risen to around $66,000, indicating that the daily bulls still have a slight advantage, so this week BTC will continue to run at a high level in the $65,000-70,000 range. Only when it breaks out of the $65,000-70,000 range can a new trend be opened.

The recent rise is the market digesting the positive news based on Trump's election expectations in advance. Once it is realized, it will rise and fall in the short term. However, if Trump wins, the medium-term trend is bullish. Otherwise, it will fall unilaterally. There is no need to guess how the market will go, we just need to be prepared to meet it at any time. When the enemy comes, we will stop him; when the water comes, we will block it with earth. The short-term high-level fluctuations are because the election results have not yet been announced, and most of the main players choose to wait and see. High-leverage traders need risk control.


There may be needles on Thursday and Friday this week. The volatility this week will be very violent.


Thursday: September core PCE, weekly unemployment benefit data, Japan interest rate meeting. The last day of the month, bearish. All long orders were completed one day in advance.


Friday: Non-farm payrolls, the last non-farm payrolls before the election.


The shock will be very violent, mainly low-long, and the position will be reduced. If there is a large increase in volume due to good news, you cannot chase it halfway. For example, near 7w, the high-throw area, there must be a rapid drop. It is safest to add positions when it drops.

At present, there is no sign that BTC will break 100,000, and it is around 80,000 at most. The probability of breaking 100,000 before the end of the year is very low, so there is no need to be too fomo. Those KOLs will not tell you how to do the contract and spot when the short-term shock occurs. They keep shouting that the end of the year will hit 100,000 and they are asking you to die. No matter how strong your faith is, it is meaningless. Trading is never a one-time deal, and compound interest is the most important. The most critical link in the short and medium term is to stabilize 72,300-73,300 before you can see 80,000. It is too ambitious to look too high for the time being, and the road is long and arduous.


Recently, the on-chain meme market has been booming, and my focus has shifted from the secondary market to the on-chain. The secondary market and the on-chain are completely different fields, each with its own advantages and problems, and different cycles. There is no need to underestimate each other.


If BTC breaks through consolidation, the secondary market will have more certainty and opportunities with large capital capacity. However, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate, and the alt season is not coming. There are more opportunities on the chain, and there are targets for getting rich from time to time, but they are also more bloody and cruel. Except for a small number of sustainable targets, they are basically gone after a wave of flows. In the process of playing on-chain memes, my thinking has also changed: memes only look at narratives. The following are the components of narratives:


1. Sponsor


That is the source, who is leading this narrative? Musk tells you that he bought a coin, do you dare to go all in? But if I tell you that I bought a coin, do you dare to go all in?


2. Narrative Connotation


Highbrow or lowbrow? Is the connotation of the narrative of crowdfunding to buy the Constitution better than that of a kol telling you the name of his dog?


3. Audience of Narrative


Generally speaking, if your narrative can impress old money, the kind of people who really don’t care about profit or loss, then your narrative is top-notch. Ordinary memes can only attract gamblers, while top-notch memes will only attract true believers.


4. Narrative consensus


Take fight as an example. The consensus of fight is very good. You see, once a slogan is shouted, we all become fomo. The consensus of fight originates from the consensus of Trump fans and then is transferred to the consensus of the currency.


5. Narrative funding capacity


Large narratives have large capital capacity, and these funds will not only stay in this narrative, but will instead overflow to the surrounding “copycats” of this narrative, such as Dogecoin. There are many Dogecoin copycats, and many of them are successful.


Is this also why I pay attention to the AI+MEME track?



1. Isn’t playing with MEME just a matter of hyping concepts and telling stories? Apart from MEME, what is the market’s favorite narrative? It is AI. No matter how weak this AI is, as long as it is covered with the appearance of AI, it will be the darling of the market.



2. Some narratives may soon become less popular. I would like to predict that it is difficult for art-type MEME narratives like $Ban to establish "stickiness" with retail investors and fail to give people a sense of vitality. It is likely that they will become quiet after the popularity has passed, and the funds will eventually return to the zoo or MEME+AI.



3. In the secondary track, only MEME and AI are version T0. This logic is also very imaginative in telling stories on the chain. Some narratives are only suitable for a love affair with it, and some narratives can be married to it. Currently, the one that has been verified to be able to marry is the zoo, and from the perspective of imagination, the best answer is MEME+AI.

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