柳夜刀

The real trading is here, welcome everyone to communicate and discuss.

Risk warning: This analysis is based on historical data and technical indicators, and does not constitute any investment advice or guarantee of returns. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, significantly influenced by market sentiment, policy changes, and unexpected events. Traders should make their own judgments and bear the risks, and conduct thorough research before investing, while managing their positions reasonably.

Hello everyone, I am that guy who has so many academic titles that I can't even remember them all—I am a self-proclaimed student of Professor Liu Yudong, who claims to be a researcher of wave theory (although Professor Liu might not even know me). I focus on the 'parrot-like' interpretation of Professor Liu's Bitcoin market analysis based on wave theory. By the way, I am also the vice president of the Stanford Blockchain Game Paradigm Research Society (which is basically just a jack-of-all-trades), the head of a department at the MIT Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain Research Institute (self-appointed), and the deputy leader of the Berkeley Quantum Computing Project Group (sounds very deputy, right?). Don’t take it too seriously, I’m just a 'tech enthusiast' who likes to study wave theory.

The main content of my tweets is as follows:
1. Interpretation of the views of the famous wave theory master, Teacher Liu, on Weibo.
2. Plus my own AI quantitative analysis based on wave theory and a bunch of random indicators.

Currently, I will publish predictions for BTC, ETH, and SOL trends punctually (as much as possible) at 8 AM, 12 PM, 4 PM, and 8 PM on weekdays. On weekends, it depends on the situation, you know how it is.

If there’s a day I don’t post, don’t panic, I might have just overslept.

In the future, I might adjust the targets of my analysis based on changes in market trading volume, after all, the market is the boss. Everyone is welcome to discuss the wonderful game of wave theory + AI predictions together, we are just a group of 'self-entertaining' enthusiasts!

💥Risk Warning:
The above content is purely personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries risks, and one should be cautious when entering the market. Please view this rationally and do not blindly follow trends. If you incur losses, don’t look for me, I’m just a 'theory porter'!

Technical indicators continue to show divergence, in this case, the win rate for short positions is very high.
#柳夜刀 $BTC #BTC

The 30-minute K-line of BTC has entered a turbulent range. It is recommended to continue holding the positions opened yesterday with patience. I will choose relatively safe positions to take profit. At the same time, I am familiarizing myself with Binance's real trading system and plan to gradually increase my investment. Currently, I am operating with a small amount of capital and using 5x leverage; once the capital reaches a certain scale, I will adjust to 3x leverage and control it within 1/3 of the position, which is equivalent to gradually transitioning to no leverage operation.

Risk Warning: This analysis is based on historical data and technical indicators and does not constitute any investment advice or profit guarantee. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and is greatly influenced by market sentiment, policy changes, and unexpected events.

#柳夜刀 #BTC

From No. 21 to No. 25 of Liu Da, there will be no updates, so I can't interpret it here.
Subsequently, my AI + my own wave theory understanding of real trading will officially start sharing and communicating with everyone on this account. Of course, Liu Da is the authority and an important reference for me. It is expected to be activated this week and gradually improved next week.

Wave Theory Interpretation:

From the BTC daily chart on May 20, 2025, the upward wave starting from 74508 has formed a complete impulsive structure, with the 3rd wave significantly extended and ending around 106800. The 4th wave completed a 0.382 retracement of the 3rd wave near the previous high, presenting a typical corrective pattern in terms of slope. The current price has started to rebound since May 19. If it can break above 107108, it can confirm that the 5th wave since 74508 has begun, with a theoretical target pointing to the Fibonacci 1.618 extension level, which is around 125000. However, if the rebound fails and breaks below 99076, it will be necessary to reassess whether the previous upward wave 3 has ended. The current stage may still be the B wave rebound structure within the 4th wave, increasing the risk of a subsequent C wave retracement. Overall, 107108 is the key short-term resistance, and 99076 is the limit for retracement. The validation of the price movement structure will serve as a basis for determining whether wave 5 will unfold in the future.

Wave Theory Interpretation:
$BTC
Currently, the blue upward structure is operating in the third segment, and the 96188 line is approaching; achieving this position itself meets expectations. However, from the perspective of the completeness of wave theory and subsequent trend judgments, merely reaching 96188 is far from sufficient; the real key lies in whether it can further break through the structural high point of 99064. Only by completing an effective breakthrough of 99064 can it be confirmed that 74508 is the endpoint of the large-scale downward wave. Even if a pullback occurs in the future, it will not break 74508 again, but will instead initiate a larger upward wave, heading towards the ultimate target new high of 125367. If the attempt to impact 99064 fails, the existing blue third segment upward movement will be regarded as a rebound nature, and the risk of retesting 74508 or even breaking below it remains unresolved. Therefore, 99064 is not only the critical point distinguishing the rebound from the main upward wave but also the core juncture where the direction of wave cycle evolution undergoes a qualitative change.

Currently creating a 4-hour AI strategy, the intensity was too high for the previous 1 hour. Binance also did not provide an automatic API, which has resulted in a lot of pressure to post.

Stay tuned.

Wave Theory Interpretation:
$BTC
The current blue upward structure is in the advancing 3rd phase, forming an upward system at the same level as the previous 1st phase. It has now approached the target area of 96188. If it can smoothly touch or even break through the key resistance of 99064, it not only indicates that this round of rebound has sufficient extension but also suggests that even if it enters a correction phase in the future, it is expected to hold the important low of 74508, forming a standard five-wave upward prototype. Conversely, if the 3rd phase ultimately fails to reach 99064 and peaks prematurely, it indicates that the strength of this rebound is limited, suggesting insufficient internal upward momentum. The market still needs to be wary of the risk of breaking the previous low of 74508 during the correction process, thus continuing the evolution of larger level adjustment waves. Therefore, the current trend is actually at a critical node of trend differentiation, and the outcome of the movements between 96188 and 99064 will have a decisive impact on the subsequent mid-term structural direction, requiring close observation of volume coordination and changes in internal wave patterns.

Wave Theory Interpretation:

From the perspective of wave structure, the current upward movement that started from 74508 has clearly progressed to the third segment. This segment belongs to the same level structure as the first segment and has broken through the previous key resistance level of 91233, with the second upward target of 96188 continuously advancing; the structural rhythm has not been disrupted, and overall, it still maintains the characteristics of a typical impulse wave. Technically, this rebound is currently facing significant reversal trend line resistance, specifically in the 99064 area. Near this resistance zone, bulls and bears will enter a critical state of short-term contention, and whether it breaks through will determine if this third wave can further extend to the expansion target corresponding to the golden ratio of 1.618. On the other hand, if the green main decline wave from the high point of 109588 has ended, then the current blue upward wave may not only be a rebound structure but could also be the first segment of a larger upward trend. If the green decline wave is confirmed to be complete, according to the cycle window calculation, the next major upward movement is expected to start around June 20, 2025, at which point it will determine whether the current blue wave is the beginning of a complete main rise or merely a corrective rebound within a larger adjustment. Overall, we are currently at a critical breakthrough stage at the trend's critical point, and the depth and extensibility of subsequent structural evolution are worth close attention.
$BTC

Interpretation of Wave Theory:

$BTC
Currently, the blue upward wave starting from 74508 is in a strong push during the 3rd segment, maintaining a good rhythm in its movement. It has successfully broken through the previously pressured structural high point of 91233, indicating that this upward segment has not yet ended and is entering a potential acceleration phase; from the perspective of wave theory, if we measure the first segment and the current third segment with equal amplitude or Fibonacci extension, then the breakthrough of 91233 provides a technical basis for the extension characteristics of the pushing wave. Once the extension target falls within the range of 96188 or higher, it will establish preliminary conditions for the main upward wave pattern. Conversely, if the price experiences a rapid decline and effectively breaks below 91233, caution is needed to determine whether the 3rd segment has been completed, with the upward trend shifting into an adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the strength and structural form of the pullback to strong support areas, to assess whether it will develop into a complete five-wave upward movement or evolve into a three-wave rebound within a corrective structure. In summary, 91233 is currently not only a boundary for the range but also a critical point for trend direction and level assessment.

$BTC
Interpretation of Wave Theory:

From the perspective of wave structure, the current upward movement that started from 74508 has entered the third segment (blue wave 3), with its slope and strength forming symmetry with the first segment, and creating a propulsion structure of the same level; theoretically, if this upward segment can continue to advance, the target range will concentrate around the previous high of 91249 and even extend to the Fibonacci 1.618 times extension level of 96188. However, the price has not yet broken through the blue support at 83949. Once this position is lost, it will constitute damage to the third wave, which means that the current blue upward structure may end, and the market will re-enter the correction phase. It is particularly important to note that although there was a decline in the market today, a clear reversal pattern has not yet formed; therefore, this blue third segment is still in progress. Unless it breaks below 83949 with effective volume, one should not prematurely conclude that the upward structure has ended. Next, whether the market can break through the previous high of 91249 and maintain structural continuity will be key to determining whether we have entered a higher-level upward cycle.

16:17
$SOL


In the next hour (from April 21, 2025, 16:15 to 17:15), SOL/USDT is expected to oscillate within the range of 139.50–141.50. The short-term direction is slightly bullish but lacks momentum. Current technical indicators (RSI around 40-45, MACD showing a slight death cross, and shrinking trading volume) indicate that the market is in a weak consolidation phase, with prices approaching the lower Bollinger Band, presenting some rebound opportunities, but there are no strong breakout signals yet.

If the price breaks above 140.30 (EMA8) accompanied by an increase in trading volume, a short-term rebound could be triggered, targeting 141.50, with a stop-loss suggested below 139.50; if the price falls below 139.50 (recent support and lower Bollinger Band) accompanied by an expansion of the MACD negative bars, it may accelerate the decline towards the 138.50 area, with a stop-loss set above 140.30. A MACD golden cross or an increase in trading volume will become key confirmation signals for trends.

Overall judgment suggests a bullish probability of 55% and a bearish probability of 45%. It is recommended that short-term traders pay close attention to price breakouts at 140.30 and 139.50, and validate these with trading volume to avoid opening positions blindly within the consolidation range. It is advisable to trade with light positions, set stop-losses, prioritize strict risk control, and assess market sentiment in conjunction with BTC/ETH correlated movements.

14:17
$BTC

In the next hour (April 21, 2025, 16:15 to 17:15), BTC/USDT is expected to fluctuate within the range of 87200–87700, with a slightly bullish short-term direction but weak trend momentum. Current technical indicators (RSI around 45–50, MACD with a slight death cross, volume below average) indicate that the market is in a low volatility consolidation phase, with a stalemate between bulls and bears, lacking clear breakout signals.

If the price breaks above 87700 (upper Bollinger band) with increased volume, it may trigger a short-term rally, targeting 88200, with a stop loss set at 87400; if it falls below 87200 (lower Bollinger band) accompanied by an expanding negative MACD histogram, it may further decline to the 86800 area, with a stop loss set at 87500. Volume will be a key confirmation condition for determining the authenticity of the breakout.

Overall, the bullish probability is 55%, and the bearish probability is 45%. Short-term traders can wait for a breakout at the key range edges before following the trend, avoiding chasing highs and lows during the current consolidation. The operation suggests testing with a light position and combining the strength and weakness of BTC and ETH for auxiliary judgment, with risk control remaining a priority, and stop-loss execution must be resolute.

16:17
$ETH

In the next hour (from April 21, 2025, 16:15 to 17:15), ETH/USDT is expected to fluctuate between 1641.00 and 1650.00, with short-term direction remaining unclear. Current technical indicators (RSI around 45.67, MACD histogram negative, trading volume continuing to be sluggish) show that bears have a slight advantage, but downward momentum has not fully materialized, and the overall market shows a weak oscillation pattern.

If the price breaks above 1646.75 (Bollinger Band middle line) with significant volume, a short-term rebound may occur, targeting 1653.67, with a stop loss at 1643.38; if it falls below 1643.38 (Bollinger Band lower line) and the MACD negative bars continue to expand, it may further test the 1641.00 or even 1638.00 area, with a stop loss at 1646.75. Whether the trading volume increases will be key to verifying the effectiveness of the market breakout.

Overall judgment suggests a bearish probability of 50% and a bullish probability of 40%. Short-term traders should pay attention to the breakout situation at the two key levels of 1643.38 and 1646.75, and it is advisable to remain cautious until the breakout is confirmed. It is recommended to participate with a light position, strengthen judgment based on BTC's correlated movements, strictly enforce stop losses and take profits, and manage risk exposure well.

$SOL 14:14

In the next hour (from April 21, 2025, 14:12 to 15:12), SOL/USDT is expected to fluctuate within the range of 140.00–141.80, with the short-term direction still unclear. Current technical indicators (RSI around 57.3, MACD slightly showing a death cross, and shrinking trading volume) indicate a stalemate between buyers and sellers, as the market enters a narrow consolidation phase, lacking strong breakout signals.

If the price breaks above 141.82 (the upper Bollinger Band) with increased volume, it may trigger a short-term rally, targeting 142.95, with a stop loss at 141.30; if it drops below 140.00 (the lower Bollinger Band) accompanied by an expanding MACD death cross, it could further test the 139.00 area, with a stop loss at 140.55. Trading volume will be a key reference factor in judging the validity of the breakout.

Overall assessment suggests a bearish probability of 45% and a bullish probability of 35%. Short-term traders should watch for breakout signals and avoid blindly chasing highs and lows within the current range. It is recommended to test with light positions and consider the fluctuations of BTC/ETH to assess SOL's trend. Risk management should remain a priority, and stop loss strategies must be strictly enforced.

14:14
$BTC

BTC/USDT is expected to fluctuate in the range of 87000–87700, with the short-term direction depending on the breakout situation of the resistance near 87557.3 above and the key support at 87200 below. Currently, technical indicators (RSI around 55-60, MACD momentum weakening, price near EMA moving average) show that the market's bullish and bearish forces are relatively balanced. In the short term, it may maintain fluctuations but is slightly biased towards an upward breakout.

Overall judgment: the probability of a bullish scenario is about 60%, while the probability of a bearish scenario is about 40%. Short-term traders can pay attention to the breakout situation at 87557.3. If the price effectively breaks through this level with increased trading volume, a small long position can be taken with a target of 88000 and a stop loss at 87200; if the price breaks below the 87200 support with corresponding trading volume, a short position can be attempted with a target of 86700 and a stop loss at 87557.3.

Risk warning: Currently, BTC is in a recent high fluctuation range, and the short-term market sentiment is unclear, which may result in false breakouts during the fluctuations. It is recommended to strictly implement profit-taking and stop-loss strategies during trading, closely monitor changes in trading volume, and the impact of external macroeconomic news on the market, and reasonably control position risks.

14:14
$ETH

ETH/USDT is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 1642–1665, with the short-term trend keying on whether it can effectively stabilize around 1648. Currently, technical indicators (RSI around 62, MACD positive but momentum slightly weakening) show that bulls are dominant, but caution is needed regarding the retracement risk near the upper Bollinger Band (1650). If the price remains above 1648 and trading volume continues to increase, there is potential for further upward movement towards the 1665 area; if it breaks below the 1642 support, it may retest 1638 or even lower.

Comprehensive judgment suggests a bullish probability of about 70% and a bearish probability of about 30%. Short-term traders can pay attention to the support strength near 1648; if the price stabilizes and is accompanied by an increase in trading volume, they may take a small long position with a target of 1665 and a stop loss at 1642; if it breaks below 1648 and the MACD shows a clear death cross, a short position may be attempted with a target of 1638 and a stop loss at 1657.

Risk Warning: The ETH price is close to recent highs and the upper Bollinger Band, and there may be a rapid retracement during the session. It is recommended to strictly control positions and risks, closely monitor changes in trading volume, and assess trend continuity in conjunction with BTC's correlated movements.

Wave Theory Interpretation:

With the key resistance level of 86686 being effectively broken, it validates the previous structural judgment that 'the rebound has been initiated'. However, from the perspective of wave structure, the current upward trend since 74508 shows a clear three-phase rhythm, and during multiple segmented retracements, it has not formed clear impulsive wave characteristics. Therefore, it is more inclined to be regarded as a corrective rebound after a significant drop rather than the starting point of a new main upward phase; the current position can be initially viewed as the third segment in the rebound (blue line segment), which is at the same level as the previous first upward segment. If the upward movement continues, it is crucial to pay attention to the upper structural resistance zone at 91249 and the previous high platform area. If the price fails to break through this region and establish a new high, this rebound may halt at a lower level of repair, and could even face the risk of a continuation decline. The level of 83949 serves as a relatively weak support in the current structure; its loss will trigger an expectation for the end of the rebound in advance. Therefore, although it has escaped the downward pressure line in the short term, whether it possesses the level for a trend reversal still needs to be observed in terms of the strength of the subsequent upward structure and the continuation of momentum. $BTC

14:30
$SOL

In the next hour (from April 18, 2025, 14:20 to 15:20), SOL/USDT is expected to fluctuate within the range of 133.50–134.50. The key to the short-term trend depends on the breakout of the support level at 133.45 and the resistance level at 134.45. Currently, the technical indicators (RSI around 48.5 neutral, MACD negative but momentum weakening) indicate that the market's short-term trend is biased to the downside, but there is a lack of clear directional momentum. If the price can break through the resistance at 134.45 with increased trading volume, it may trigger a short-term rebound, targeting around 135.50; if it falls below the support at 133.45, it may further retreat to the 132.50–133.00 area.

In summary, the market has a high probability of fluctuation, with bullish and bearish probabilities each around 20%. Short-term traders may pay attention to the breakout above 134.50. If the price stabilizes and is accompanied by volume, they may consider taking a light long position, targeting 135.50, with a stop loss at 133.90; if the price falls below 133.40, they may attempt a short position, targeting 132.50, with a stop loss at 133.90.

Risk Warning: SOL is currently in a low volatility consolidation phase, and the breakout direction is still unclear. It is important to cautiously manage positions and strictly set stop losses during operations. Also, closely monitor BTC and ETH trends to assess the correlation effects and avoid risks from sudden market fluctuations.