柳夜刀
Open Trade
High-Frequency Trader
1.4 Years
波浪理论研究者柳玉东教授学生，专注解读柳教授基于波浪理论的比特币行情分析。斯坦福区块链游戏范式研究社副社长。麻省理工人工智能与区块链研究院一院系主任。伯克利量子计算课题组副组长。
0 Following
524 Followers
453 Liked
29 Shared
All
Quotes
See original
PINNED
Hello everyone, I am that guy who has so many academic titles that I can't even remember them all—I am a self-proclaimed student of Professor Liu Yudong, who claims to be a researcher of wave theory (although Professor Liu might not even know me). I focus on the 'parrot-like' interpretation of Professor Liu's Bitcoin market analysis based on wave theory. By the way, I am also the vice president of the Stanford Blockchain Game Paradigm Research Society (which is basically just a jack-of-all-trades), the head of a department at the MIT Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain Research Institute (self-appointed), and the deputy leader of the Berkeley Quantum Computing Project Group (sounds very deputy, right?). Don’t take it too seriously, I’m just a 'tech enthusiast' who likes to study wave theory.
The main content of my tweets is as follows:
1. Interpretation of the views of the famous wave theory master, Teacher Liu, on Weibo.
2. Plus my own AI quantitative analysis based on wave theory and a bunch of random indicators.
Currently, I will publish predictions for BTC, ETH, and SOL trends punctually (as much as possible) at 8 AM, 12 PM, 4 PM, and 8 PM on weekdays. On weekends, it depends on the situation, you know how it is.
If there’s a day I don’t post, don’t panic, I might have just overslept.
In the future, I might adjust the targets of my analysis based on changes in market trading volume, after all, the market is the boss. Everyone is welcome to discuss the wonderful game of wave theory + AI predictions together, we are just a group of 'self-entertaining' enthusiasts!
💥Risk Warning:
The above content is purely personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries risks, and one should be cautious when entering the market. Please view this rationally and do not blindly follow trends. If you incur losses, don’t look for me, I’m just a 'theory porter'!
The main content of my tweets is as follows:
1. Interpretation of the views of the famous wave theory master, Teacher Liu, on Weibo.
2. Plus my own AI quantitative analysis based on wave theory and a bunch of random indicators.
Currently, I will publish predictions for BTC, ETH, and SOL trends punctually (as much as possible) at 8 AM, 12 PM, 4 PM, and 8 PM on weekdays. On weekends, it depends on the situation, you know how it is.
If there’s a day I don’t post, don’t panic, I might have just overslept.
In the future, I might adjust the targets of my analysis based on changes in market trading volume, after all, the market is the boss. Everyone is welcome to discuss the wonderful game of wave theory + AI predictions together, we are just a group of 'self-entertaining' enthusiasts!
💥Risk Warning:
The above content is purely personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries risks, and one should be cautious when entering the market. Please view this rationally and do not blindly follow trends. If you incur losses, don’t look for me, I’m just a 'theory porter'!
See original
If this is a contract killing, how fat the meat must be, oh my goodness. Put on the battle shoes, the audience seats are still exciting.
See original
Haha, I dare not open the comment section. Let me be quiet for a moment. Nine out of ten bets lose, the ancients said this for a reason. Now I have the remaining 200u, and empty sol... If I hit the rhythm right on Sunday, my account traffic will rise! Unfortunately, I spent 400,000 on loneliness.
SOLUSDT
Perp
75X
Opening Short
Unrealized PNL
+57.86USDT
See original
Wave Theory Analysis and Interpretation:
From the perspective of wave theory, the chart clearly shows that 123218 has formed the endpoint of the red third wave, and is currently in the adjustment phase of the red fourth wave. Structurally, after the top has retraced, three adjustment segments have been run, with the second segment's retracement nearing 0.7 of the first segment. This proportional relationship suggests a high possibility of a typical platform-type adjustment or an expanding zigzag structure here, indicating that the adjustment is not yet finished, and there are still time and space digestion requirements.
From a price point perspective, 120973 has formed a clear short-term resistance, with highs stalling and multiple failed retests, confirming the resistance strength in this area. On the support side, the range set in the chart of 115657–113872 is a key platform level from the previous upward process of the red third wave, and it is also the Fibonacci retracement area of 0.382 to 0.5, showing clear support expectations. Therefore, as long as it does not effectively break below 113872, the adjustment of the red fourth wave remains “healthy” and does not damage the medium-term upward main structure.
In terms of time, this round of adjustment started on July 14, with the target to be completed around July 27. From a rhythm perspective, it belongs to a typical medium wave level slow decline and sideways structure. Before the adjustment is completed, there is hope for maintaining fluctuations within the range in the short term. If subsequent pullbacks do not break the support and show strong upward volume, it is expected to initiate the rise of the red fifth wave, with the target still locked in the 132669 area or even higher.
If subsequent adjustments break below the 113872 support, it will be necessary to reassess the validity of the endpoint of the red third wave and whether there is a risk of a main trend reversal, but so far, such structural damage has not occurred. The overall strategy still leans towards 'structure first, price point validation', maintaining vigilance for the potential initiation of the red fifth wave.
#柳夜刀 $BTC #btc
From the perspective of wave theory, the chart clearly shows that 123218 has formed the endpoint of the red third wave, and is currently in the adjustment phase of the red fourth wave. Structurally, after the top has retraced, three adjustment segments have been run, with the second segment's retracement nearing 0.7 of the first segment. This proportional relationship suggests a high possibility of a typical platform-type adjustment or an expanding zigzag structure here, indicating that the adjustment is not yet finished, and there are still time and space digestion requirements.
From a price point perspective, 120973 has formed a clear short-term resistance, with highs stalling and multiple failed retests, confirming the resistance strength in this area. On the support side, the range set in the chart of 115657–113872 is a key platform level from the previous upward process of the red third wave, and it is also the Fibonacci retracement area of 0.382 to 0.5, showing clear support expectations. Therefore, as long as it does not effectively break below 113872, the adjustment of the red fourth wave remains “healthy” and does not damage the medium-term upward main structure.
In terms of time, this round of adjustment started on July 14, with the target to be completed around July 27. From a rhythm perspective, it belongs to a typical medium wave level slow decline and sideways structure. Before the adjustment is completed, there is hope for maintaining fluctuations within the range in the short term. If subsequent pullbacks do not break the support and show strong upward volume, it is expected to initiate the rise of the red fifth wave, with the target still locked in the 132669 area or even higher.
If subsequent adjustments break below the 113872 support, it will be necessary to reassess the validity of the endpoint of the red third wave and whether there is a risk of a main trend reversal, but so far, such structural damage has not occurred. The overall strategy still leans towards 'structure first, price point validation', maintaining vigilance for the potential initiation of the red fifth wave.
#柳夜刀 $BTC #btc
See original
Today short Ethereum with 800 dollars to 3200, or even 3000, compared to 50,000 dollars, 800 dollars is no pressure at all. First, short with 75 times leverage, then switch to 20 times rolling margin short, to increase fault tolerance.
I am really angry, the drop of Ethereum to 3200 is a certainty. Once the leverage is high, it will affect the mindset. However, I have been thinking about a question: if we are trading coins, what's the point of not using some leverage to earn those few points? Can't I just go for the A9? The reality is harsh, so those who come out with high leverage are all elites, and I admire them. They not only need market sense and courage, but also luck, and they must understand when to stop. Looking at the entire cryptocurrency circle, such people are rare; however, losses and gains are two sides of the same coin. Since it has happened, I should reflect on it and accept the arrangement of fate. For example, I can avoid staying up late, rest well, and it might save my life. Moving forward, I will continue to focus on Bitcoin, achieving compound profits in the long term. Bitcoin could reach 300,000 dollars in the next few years. The opportunities are still there!
See original
I am really angry, the drop of Ethereum to 3200 is a certainty. Once the leverage is high, it will affect the mindset. However, I have been thinking about a question: if we are trading coins, what's the point of not using some leverage to earn those few points? Can't I just go for the A9? The reality is harsh, so those who come out with high leverage are all elites, and I admire them. They not only need market sense and courage, but also luck, and they must understand when to stop. Looking at the entire cryptocurrency circle, such people are rare; however, losses and gains are two sides of the same coin. Since it has happened, I should reflect on it and accept the arrangement of fate. For example, I can avoid staying up late, rest well, and it might save my life. Moving forward, I will continue to focus on Bitcoin, achieving compound profits in the long term. Bitcoin could reach 300,000 dollars in the next few years. The opportunities are still there!
Brothers, I share, never just talk big. Yesterday I lost about 50,000 dollars in empty Ethereum, nearly 400,000 RMB. I got too carried away yesterday... If only I had a girlfriend, I really need to find one... Someone to advise me, or just to tackle me directly.
See original
Brothers, I share, never just talk big. Yesterday I lost about 50,000 dollars in empty Ethereum, nearly 400,000 RMB. I got too carried away yesterday... If only I had a girlfriend, I really need to find one... Someone to advise me, or just to tackle me directly.
See original
It seems that 3800 was the small peak, luck is not on my side, what can I say. Now I can only open a short of 16 Ethereum, I can't even... speechless. But in a while, I will roll over the position to see if I can roll out a few tens of thousands of dollars.
This one is even more serious than the previous one!
I reopened a short position on Ethereum. If it breaks 3700 and can't go up, it will definitely plummet within 48 hours.
Unfortunately, I can't open 600 shorts, not even 200, I can only open 60.
Targeting between 3150 and 3300. If you make money after seeing the shorts, please feel free to reward me. I used a loss of 50,000 dollars to test this for you. Damn it!
I reopened a short position on Ethereum. If it breaks 3700 and can't go up, it will definitely plummet within 48 hours.
Unfortunately, I can't open 600 shorts, not even 200, I can only open 60.
Targeting between 3150 and 3300. If you make money after seeing the shorts, please feel free to reward me. I used a loss of 50,000 dollars to test this for you. Damn it!
See original
This one is even more serious than the previous one!
I reopened a short position on Ethereum. If it breaks 3700 and can't go up, it will definitely plummet within 48 hours.
Unfortunately, I can't open 600 shorts, not even 200, I can only open 60.
Targeting between 3150 and 3300. If you make money after seeing the shorts, please feel free to reward me. I used a loss of 50,000 dollars to test this for you. Damn it!
I reopened a short position on Ethereum. If it breaks 3700 and can't go up, it will definitely plummet within 48 hours.
Unfortunately, I can't open 600 shorts, not even 200, I can only open 60.
Targeting between 3150 and 3300. If you make money after seeing the shorts, please feel free to reward me. I used a loss of 50,000 dollars to test this for you. Damn it!
See original
Alright, ETH is awesome, I stopped my loss. Lost 50,000 U. Heartbroken. I need to take a break for a while. If it crashes later, it will be a double humiliation for me.
The empty ether is really😭, if it breaks 3700, I must stop loss. In the future, I will still trade Bitcoin steadily. I hope it doesn't break 3700. A pullback, a pullback, this kind of rise is not conducive to long-term stable development.
See original
The empty ether is really😭, if it breaks 3700, I must stop loss. In the future, I will still trade Bitcoin steadily. I hope it doesn't break 3700. A pullback, a pullback, this kind of rise is not conducive to long-term stable development.
Based on my years of experience in short selling, Ethereum will definitely drop, the fastest by 4 PM, target 3200. If Bitcoin also drops, it might touch 3000. Short 200 units here, around 3640, and the short must be aggressive to work. Stop loss at 3700.
See original
Based on my years of experience in short selling, Ethereum will definitely drop, the fastest by 4 PM, target 3200. If Bitcoin also drops, it might touch 3000. Short 200 units here, around 3640, and the short must be aggressive to work. Stop loss at 3700.
I was just testing, wondering if there is a dog house monitoring, sure enough, as soon as I opened a position, it triggered my stop loss. The exchange is really bad. Now I'm keeping my long and short secret, and I'll share the results once I get them.
See original
Wow, so many people enjoy watching me get liquidated!? Really… I've already set my stop loss, okay? Am I really that easy to get liquidated? Torturing dog traders is my specialty.
Mrs. is amazing, I was wrong. One hundred thousand just disappeared so easily. Shopping. My heart doesn't hurt at all. Haha. I'll continue to empty him in a while. The air force will never be enslaved.
See original
I was just testing, wondering if there is a dog house monitoring, sure enough, as soon as I opened a position, it triggered my stop loss. The exchange is really bad. Now I'm keeping my long and short secret, and I'll share the results once I get them.
See original
I day, what can’t be empty in the ether...
Everyone, after a week of intense trading on the big pancake, let's take a gamble this weekend, with a stop loss at 3692. What if it drops to over 3200? Haha.
See original
Wave Theory Analysis Interpretation:
Combining the price action in the chart with Wave Theory, from the trend on July 18, 2025, BTC has basically completed the main upward phase of the red third wave (red 3) and confirmed 123218 as a local high point. It is currently in the consolidation phase of the fourth wave (red 4). According to the classic retracement ratios of Wave Theory, the fourth wave typically retraces between 0.382 to 0.5 of the third wave amplitude, and in extreme cases should not exceed 0.618. From the measurement in the chart, it can be seen that the current retracement has maximally consumed 0.495 of red 3, close to the theoretical upper limit, and has not caused structural damage, so it can still be judged that we are currently in a horizontal or platform-type consolidation of red 4.
What is more noteworthy is that the recent rebound since 119611 has shown a strong engulfing trend, almost recovering all the losses of red 4, returning to the oscillation zone of 120800–121200, close to the previous high pressure of 120973. If it continues to consolidate horizontally or slowly rise in the coming days, and maintains above 115657, especially above 117789, the probability of red 4 ending is very high, and the subsequent upward structure of red 5 is likely to unfold.
It is expected that if red 5 confirms its departure, its minimum target based on the equivalent advance of red 3 should point to around 132669; if the market enters a phase of emotional strengthening, breaking through 132669 may further challenge the Fibonacci 1.618 extension range of 138000~142000.
If it cannot maintain above 117789 in the coming days, or breaks below the support zone of 115657~113872, then red 4 has not yet ended and may even evolve into a complex adjustment structure of a zigzag + platform combination, potentially extending in time until July 27 to fully conclude.
Currently, red 4 is in the late stage of strong horizontal consolidation. If it can hold above 117789 and break above 120973, then red 5 is expected to fully launch in mid to late July, targeting 132669. Conversely, if it breaks below 115657, precautions should be taken as the structure may re-evolve into an expanding platform, delaying the startup window. #柳夜刀 #btc $BTC
Combining the price action in the chart with Wave Theory, from the trend on July 18, 2025, BTC has basically completed the main upward phase of the red third wave (red 3) and confirmed 123218 as a local high point. It is currently in the consolidation phase of the fourth wave (red 4). According to the classic retracement ratios of Wave Theory, the fourth wave typically retraces between 0.382 to 0.5 of the third wave amplitude, and in extreme cases should not exceed 0.618. From the measurement in the chart, it can be seen that the current retracement has maximally consumed 0.495 of red 3, close to the theoretical upper limit, and has not caused structural damage, so it can still be judged that we are currently in a horizontal or platform-type consolidation of red 4.
What is more noteworthy is that the recent rebound since 119611 has shown a strong engulfing trend, almost recovering all the losses of red 4, returning to the oscillation zone of 120800–121200, close to the previous high pressure of 120973. If it continues to consolidate horizontally or slowly rise in the coming days, and maintains above 115657, especially above 117789, the probability of red 4 ending is very high, and the subsequent upward structure of red 5 is likely to unfold.
It is expected that if red 5 confirms its departure, its minimum target based on the equivalent advance of red 3 should point to around 132669; if the market enters a phase of emotional strengthening, breaking through 132669 may further challenge the Fibonacci 1.618 extension range of 138000~142000.
If it cannot maintain above 117789 in the coming days, or breaks below the support zone of 115657~113872, then red 4 has not yet ended and may even evolve into a complex adjustment structure of a zigzag + platform combination, potentially extending in time until July 27 to fully conclude.
Currently, red 4 is in the late stage of strong horizontal consolidation. If it can hold above 117789 and break above 120973, then red 5 is expected to fully launch in mid to late July, targeting 132669. Conversely, if it breaks below 115657, precautions should be taken as the structure may re-evolve into an expanding platform, delaying the startup window. #柳夜刀 #btc $BTC
See original
Dear friends, today I want to talk to you about the upcoming operational ideas and share some insights, hoping to inspire everyone:
😀 Maintain a calm mind and focus on your own pace.
Recently, I've seen news about some internet celebrities making millions or even tens of millions of dollars, which is indeed dazzling. But I want to tell everyone that such success often comes with elements of fate and is hard to replicate. I have also experienced such shining moments, but the market will always teach you a lesson — if you don't pull back in time, one day you will lose the courage to even place a trade. So, don't be anxious, don't envy, and certainly don't be discouraged by account drawdowns. Trading is a marathon; maintaining your mindset and finding your own rhythm is the key.
😀 Combine wave theory with reality and stay alert.
Wave theory is a good tool that can help us predict market trends, but it is not infallible; public sentiment and events are equally important, and we need to remain vigilant at all times. Currently, there is a significant event that everyone needs to pay special attention to: the Epstein incident is brewing, and divisions have emerged within Trump's MAGA camp as a result. His political compromises are too radical, and the Democrats are likely to capitalize on this (they missed opportunities during previous controversies). Therefore, if the market rebounds after a decline, do not rush to chase long positions; observe cautiously and protect your capital.
😀 Maintain a calm mind and focus on your own pace.
Recently, I've seen news about some internet celebrities making millions or even tens of millions of dollars, which is indeed dazzling. But I want to tell everyone that such success often comes with elements of fate and is hard to replicate. I have also experienced such shining moments, but the market will always teach you a lesson — if you don't pull back in time, one day you will lose the courage to even place a trade. So, don't be anxious, don't envy, and certainly don't be discouraged by account drawdowns. Trading is a marathon; maintaining your mindset and finding your own rhythm is the key.
😀 Combine wave theory with reality and stay alert.
Wave theory is a good tool that can help us predict market trends, but it is not infallible; public sentiment and events are equally important, and we need to remain vigilant at all times. Currently, there is a significant event that everyone needs to pay special attention to: the Epstein incident is brewing, and divisions have emerged within Trump's MAGA camp as a result. His political compromises are too radical, and the Democrats are likely to capitalize on this (they missed opportunities during previous controversies). Therefore, if the market rebounds after a decline, do not rush to chase long positions; observe cautiously and protect your capital.
Wave Theory Analysis Interpretation:
Combining the current chart (July 17, 2025) and the previous analytical structure, it is confirmed that 123218 has completed the red third wave endpoint, and we are currently in the correction phase of the red fourth wave. From a structural perspective, it presents a typical rhythm of five-wave upward movement + three-wave adjustment. According to the core rule of wave theory - the fourth wave cannot enter the price area of the first wave, and usually does not exceed the 0.382 retracement zone of the third wave, we should focus on assessing the reasonableness and potential changes of the space and time for this adjustment.
Firstly, the red third wave rose from 104274 to 123218, with an increase of 18944. If we consider the 0.236 and 0.382 retracement as reasonable correction space, then the support zone for the red fourth wave roughly falls within the key support area of 115657~113872 in the chart, thus the effectiveness of this range as the endpoint zone for the red fourth wave correction is extremely high.
Currently, the short-term low point seen around 119050 last midnight has touched the shallow correction range. If it breaks below 117789 in the short term, it will confirm the completion of the red fourth wave B wave peak, and the next C wave target will point to the range of 115800~114000, and it may even drop to the line of 113872 to complete the ultimate confirmation.
In terms of time structure, since the red third wave lasted about 41 days, the adjustment of the red fourth wave generally does not exceed twice that duration. Considering that the adjustment started on July 14, the theoretical endpoint time window should be concentrated around July 27. If the retracement is not completed beyond this time frame, the structure may turn into a more complex horizontal platform.
If future prices stabilize above 115600 and show continuous increasing volume, then it can be judged that the red fourth wave has ended, and the red fifth wave upward will begin, targeting directly at 132669, and may further impact the range of 138000~141000 to form a larger wave peak.
If short-term prices break through 120973 again, accompanied by continuous volume expansion, then it will be necessary to reassess whether the red fourth wave has ended and has prematurely transitioned into the main upward phase. Otherwise, it is still advisable to cautiously view the current structure as a B wave rebound in a bottoming process, and subsequent precaution should be taken against a downward terminal adjustment action.
In summary, we are currently in a key transition window, with support primarily focused on the range of 115657~113872, while resistance is still based on the double top structure of 120973 and 123218. A clear breakthrough of this will be necessary to determine the start of the fifth wave.
#柳夜刀 #btc $BTC
Combining the current chart (July 17, 2025) and the previous analytical structure, it is confirmed that 123218 has completed the red third wave endpoint, and we are currently in the correction phase of the red fourth wave. From a structural perspective, it presents a typical rhythm of five-wave upward movement + three-wave adjustment. According to the core rule of wave theory - the fourth wave cannot enter the price area of the first wave, and usually does not exceed the 0.382 retracement zone of the third wave, we should focus on assessing the reasonableness and potential changes of the space and time for this adjustment.
Firstly, the red third wave rose from 104274 to 123218, with an increase of 18944. If we consider the 0.236 and 0.382 retracement as reasonable correction space, then the support zone for the red fourth wave roughly falls within the key support area of 115657~113872 in the chart, thus the effectiveness of this range as the endpoint zone for the red fourth wave correction is extremely high.
Currently, the short-term low point seen around 119050 last midnight has touched the shallow correction range. If it breaks below 117789 in the short term, it will confirm the completion of the red fourth wave B wave peak, and the next C wave target will point to the range of 115800~114000, and it may even drop to the line of 113872 to complete the ultimate confirmation.
In terms of time structure, since the red third wave lasted about 41 days, the adjustment of the red fourth wave generally does not exceed twice that duration. Considering that the adjustment started on July 14, the theoretical endpoint time window should be concentrated around July 27. If the retracement is not completed beyond this time frame, the structure may turn into a more complex horizontal platform.
If future prices stabilize above 115600 and show continuous increasing volume, then it can be judged that the red fourth wave has ended, and the red fifth wave upward will begin, targeting directly at 132669, and may further impact the range of 138000~141000 to form a larger wave peak.
If short-term prices break through 120973 again, accompanied by continuous volume expansion, then it will be necessary to reassess whether the red fourth wave has ended and has prematurely transitioned into the main upward phase. Otherwise, it is still advisable to cautiously view the current structure as a B wave rebound in a bottoming process, and subsequent precaution should be taken against a downward terminal adjustment action.
In summary, we are currently in a key transition window, with support primarily focused on the range of 115657~113872, while resistance is still based on the double top structure of 120973 and 123218. A clear breakthrough of this will be necessary to determine the start of the fifth wave.
#柳夜刀 #btc $BTC
Login to explore more contents
Explore the latest crypto news
⚡️ Be a part of the latests discussions in crypto
💬 Interact with your favorite creators
👍 Enjoy content that interests you
Email / Phone number
Trending Topics
BTCvsETH
362,342 views
12,032 Discussing
Ethereum reserves held by institutions have surged past $6.25 billion, marking a historic shift. Ethereum’s versatility and yield opportunities are attracting capital that once flowed primarily into Bitcoin, signaling a potential long-term change in crypto market leadership and utility.
💬Will ETH eventually dethrone BTC as the king of crypto or will BTC’s status prevail in the face of this shift?
👉 Complete daily tasks on Task Center to earn Binance Points:
• Create a post using #BTCvsETH ,
• Share your Trader’s Profile,
• Or share a trade using the widget to earn 5 points!
(Tap the “+” on the Binance App homepage and select Task Center)
Activity Period: 2025-07-21 06:00 (UTC) to 2025-07-22 06:00 (UTC)
Binance Square Official
118 Likes
30.8k views
ETHBreaks3700
1.9M views
8,736 Discussing
StablecoinLaw
2.4M views
22,056 Discussing
