Wave Theory Analysis Interpretation:

Combining the price action in the chart with Wave Theory, from the trend on July 18, 2025, BTC has basically completed the main upward phase of the red third wave (red 3) and confirmed 123218 as a local high point. It is currently in the consolidation phase of the fourth wave (red 4). According to the classic retracement ratios of Wave Theory, the fourth wave typically retraces between 0.382 to 0.5 of the third wave amplitude, and in extreme cases should not exceed 0.618. From the measurement in the chart, it can be seen that the current retracement has maximally consumed 0.495 of red 3, close to the theoretical upper limit, and has not caused structural damage, so it can still be judged that we are currently in a horizontal or platform-type consolidation of red 4.

What is more noteworthy is that the recent rebound since 119611 has shown a strong engulfing trend, almost recovering all the losses of red 4, returning to the oscillation zone of 120800–121200, close to the previous high pressure of 120973. If it continues to consolidate horizontally or slowly rise in the coming days, and maintains above 115657, especially above 117789, the probability of red 4 ending is very high, and the subsequent upward structure of red 5 is likely to unfold.

It is expected that if red 5 confirms its departure, its minimum target based on the equivalent advance of red 3 should point to around 132669; if the market enters a phase of emotional strengthening, breaking through 132669 may further challenge the Fibonacci 1.618 extension range of 138000~142000.

If it cannot maintain above 117789 in the coming days, or breaks below the support zone of 115657~113872, then red 4 has not yet ended and may even evolve into a complex adjustment structure of a zigzag + platform combination, potentially extending in time until July 27 to fully conclude.

Currently, red 4 is in the late stage of strong horizontal consolidation. If it can hold above 117789 and break above 120973, then red 5 is expected to fully launch in mid to late July, targeting 132669. Conversely, if it breaks below 115657, precautions should be taken as the structure may re-evolve into an expanding platform, delaying the startup window. #柳夜刀 #btc $BTC