Wave Theory Analysis and Interpretation:
From the perspective of wave theory, the chart clearly shows that 123218 has formed the endpoint of the red third wave, and is currently in the adjustment phase of the red fourth wave. Structurally, after the top has retraced, three adjustment segments have been run, with the second segment's retracement nearing 0.7 of the first segment. This proportional relationship suggests a high possibility of a typical platform-type adjustment or an expanding zigzag structure here, indicating that the adjustment is not yet finished, and there are still time and space digestion requirements.
From a price point perspective, 120973 has formed a clear short-term resistance, with highs stalling and multiple failed retests, confirming the resistance strength in this area. On the support side, the range set in the chart of 115657–113872 is a key platform level from the previous upward process of the red third wave, and it is also the Fibonacci retracement area of 0.382 to 0.5, showing clear support expectations. Therefore, as long as it does not effectively break below 113872, the adjustment of the red fourth wave remains “healthy” and does not damage the medium-term upward main structure.
In terms of time, this round of adjustment started on July 14, with the target to be completed around July 27. From a rhythm perspective, it belongs to a typical medium wave level slow decline and sideways structure. Before the adjustment is completed, there is hope for maintaining fluctuations within the range in the short term. If subsequent pullbacks do not break the support and show strong upward volume, it is expected to initiate the rise of the red fifth wave, with the target still locked in the 132669 area or even higher.
If subsequent adjustments break below the 113872 support, it will be necessary to reassess the validity of the endpoint of the red third wave and whether there is a risk of a main trend reversal, but so far, such structural damage has not occurred. The overall strategy still leans towards 'structure first, price point validation', maintaining vigilance for the potential initiation of the red fifth wave.
