大眼睛

The United States takes a big move: Israel and Iran are fighting, oil prices surge by 35%, the world enters an energy crisis. It seems that Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia are the apparent beneficiaries, but in reality, the biggest beneficiaries are the military, energy capitalists behind the United States.

Countries without oil will see their GDP shrink, and their economies will stagnate.

The rise in oil prices is supported by the fact that oil purchases will definitely require exchanging for US dollars, so everyone will need to stockpile dollars. As everyone stocks up on dollars, the US can justifiably print more dollars. Therefore, now that oil prices are rising, you not only need dollars but also more dollars. With the demand for dollars comes the demand for US Treasury bonds. Thus, the US debt crisis means that the US has once again stabilized!

Secondly, with the demand for US Treasury bonds, interest rates on these bonds will decrease. To balance the interest rates between banks and US Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve will inevitably lower interest rates!

Additionally, the easing of tariffs will expire in July. It is estimated there will be another significant drop. Then it will begin to rise...
#美国加征关税

The Federal Reserve's rate cut script has no ups and downs! It's still reheating old leftovers!

This time the Federal Reserve has still kept interest rates unchanged! This aligns with market expectations! Regarding rate cut expectations: it remains that there will be two rate cuts this year, with a reduction of 50 basis points.

However, the number of officials hoping for no rate cuts is increasing.

From the Federal Reserve's dot plot: among 19 officials, 7 believe there will be no rate cuts in 2025 (4 in March), 2 believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points by 2025, meaning one rate cut (4 in March), 8 officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025, meaning two rate cuts (9 in March), and 2 officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by 2025, meaning three rate cuts (2 in March).

Sigh, just sleep peacefully, the market will digest the expected negative news and have a slight rebound, then continue to decline. It’s still more reassuring to operate from a higher position. After all, there won't be any strong liquidity injection in the next three months!

Today is Trump's birthday, and here is the 'birthday gift' list prepared for Trump:

1. Political Chaos: The Russia-Ukraine war remains deadlocked, U.S. mediation has borne no fruit, resources invested have gone down the drain, and trust among allies is precarious.

2. Military Conflict: The conflict between Israel and Iran is raging, and the U.S. has a 'double standard' siding with Israel, inciting anger from Iran and several Arab countries, worsening the situation in the Middle East.

3. Domestic Turmoil: Protests erupt in various places, with diverse public demands ranging from immigrant rights to economic policies, extreme dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, and severe social division.

4. Financial Minefield: The peak of government debt maturities is approaching, interest expenditures are suffocating the finances, the bond market is in turmoil, and a slight misstep could lead to a major economic crisis.

5. Trade Dilemma: Tariffs are being wielded like a club, global trade partners are retaliating one after another, costs for U.S. businesses are skyrocketing, exports are obstructed, and the domestic economy is suffering even more.

6. Diplomatic Isolation: Traditional allies like Canada are increasingly diverging from the U.S. on various international issues, cooperation is unstable, and U.S. international influence is being continuously weakened.

Next Thursday evening, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is approaching, and recently the positive developments in cryptocurrency have mostly settled, leading everyone to seem desensitized to other economic indicators. Therefore, the interest rate meeting will serve as a defining watershed for bulls and bears. Personally, I still feel bearish; as I mentioned before, there might not be a rate cut in June, and this time I am certain there won't be a rate cut in July.

So when exactly will the rate cuts happen in the second half of the year, and will there even be a rate cut? This has become a key point moving forward.

The Federal Reserve is basically not a brand known for rate cuts; the market generally believes there might be a rate cut in September, but I estimate that even if the Americans want to cut rates, they won’t say it first.

Moreover, the lagging effects of Trump's tariff policy have just begun, and inflation is expected to continue rising in the coming months, which is a signal against rate cuts.

Therefore, the signal for not cutting rates in September is already clear, and it remains the same formula and flavor. They still won’t announce the specific timing of rate cut expectations and will make the final decision based on the impact of Trump's tariffs, making it difficult to reach a conclusion even within this year.

For the market, the mid-term outlook is bearish, while the long-term outlook is bullish. From the perspective of the main forces, if there is a rate cut, BTC will inevitably reach new highs, and the current pullback and consolidation are far from enough.

One can only say: the time to bottom out has not yet arrived…
#加密市场回调

The cryptocurrency market plays with disparities; will it continue to rise?

In the short term, this is certain. In the previous article, it was mentioned that the United States will draw the world's attention to BTC, aiming for new highs.

The reason is: the United States holds a large amount of BTC and gold (the exact amount cannot be determined based on public information; what you see is meant for your viewing), the crisis of U.S. debt seems to be approaching. When everyone thinks the U.S. is on the brink and is reluctant to enter at high levels, the time becomes even more urgent. It must rise without corrections to make you feel that this time is different. Therefore, before June, BTC needs to reach a new high again to attract retail investors. When everyone self-PUA believes it will rise again, that is the time for harvesting.

The unchanging logic now is: the cryptocurrency market has undoubtedly always been a cash cow for the U.S. government, so the next steps are: raise the price—wait for you to take over—sell off—dilute the pressure on U.S. debt.
#BTC再创新高

Tonight's CPI data was 0.3% lower than expected, and the entire network was waiting for something higher than expected, but instead we got something lower than expected, which is considered a slight positive, albeit very small. In the short term, it won't change Old Powell's firm stance on not lowering interest rates; tonight's small rise is still driven by sentiment.

Because after the joint statement from China and the U.S. yesterday, the last short-term favorable news was fully released, today's CPI is just an added small dish.

However, without continued capital inflow in the short term, we will eventually face a correction. In the medium term, we will continue to watch the passage of BTC strategic reserves in various U.S. states and the tariff negotiations and implementations with other countries. In the long term, we expect interest rate cuts to inject liquidity, and then restart a big bull market!
#CPI数据来袭

The press conference of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has ended, with neutral remarks but a hawkish stance...

Due to Powell's numerous neutral comments, discussions around tariffs, inflation, and unemployment rates have been going in circles without a clear attitude. The only clear message is for the market to "wait."

He also stated that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates before July, and when asked about the expectation of two rate cuts in March, he indicated that the announcement would not come until June. Thus, this implies that the possibility of a rate cut in June is basically true!

In response to Powell's remarks, there have been no significant signals of rise or fall in the U.S. stock market or crypto 📶. However, the U.S. dollar is strengthening while gold is weakening.

We continue to observe the market's reaction after interpretation. May is unlikely to be smooth, as in a non-rate-cutting environment, facing the maturity of both government and corporate bonds, all assets will inevitably be drained, leading to weaker liquidity.

No matter how the U.S. stock market rallies, it is merely a façade, accompanied by liquidity fleeing. We really need to pay attention to safety in May ⚠️.
#美联储FOMC会议
$BTC

May 8th Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, no rate cut in May has become a certainty, what about the outlook for June?

The independent existence of the Federal Reserve is to make cautious judgments about the economy, it would rather move slowly than be blamed by anyone, so it is unlikely to cut rates in June unless there is clear economic data proving it must do so (of course, most of the time, the data is also embellished to prepare for decision-making).

Currently, although the tariff information has been digested, the 90-day tariff delay still exists, and uncertainty remains because Trump himself knows that negotiations are a game where both sides need to consider pulling and dragging, which is very lengthy.

Will the tariff negotiations be resolved before the June Federal Reserve meeting? Clearly not possible. Thus, the Federal Reserve will continue to wait for the certainty of tariffs to capture the certainty of rate cuts. However, currently, inflation rates appear to be stable, but U.S. Treasury bonds seem unstable. Given the significant pressure on the Federal Reserve, it is okay to let the market know something and give some signals; after all, for the market, the Federal Reserve's voice is: it's too expensive!
#美联储FOMC会议 #加密市场回调
$BTC

U.S. GDP contracted in the first quarter, recording -0.3%

The core PCE price index for the first quarter in the U.S. was 3.5%, higher than the expected 3.3%

Both sets of data are 'bearish' for the crypto market. Some may argue that negative GDP gives the Federal Reserve a reason to cut rates quickly, but Powell has consistently stated that he is only responsible for inflation. Therefore, this set of inflation data clearly does not provide sufficient justification for a rate cut in May.

What about June? It still depends on the specific economic indicators in May.
Moreover, it’s possible that there may not be a rate cut in June either. After all, is the U.S. debt crisis really unsolvable in the short term? Not necessarily!

The U.S. can continue to use short-term high-interest debt to repay medium- and long-term U.S. debt. Furthermore, a corresponding crisis occurred in 2023, and it has experience in resolving it. The U.S. might have already prepared the funds to repay this massive short-term debt of $36 trillion that is due in June, but it’s just not public! On the surface, it seems that Trump and the Federal Reserve are at odds, but in reality, the decision not to cut rates is because this will be the last card to play; there’s no need to reveal it unless necessary. Additionally, even if rates are cut, it can only be considered a stopgap for the economic situation in the U.S.

Tariffs have not been fully implemented yet, but it has already come to this. What must come will eventually come. With a negative GDP figure, we are no longer talking about expectations of a recession in the U.S. economy, but rather the fact of a recession. The path for the U.S. has become increasingly narrow, so cherish what remains... The mid-term outlook for the crypto market remains bearish
$BTC
#美股财报周来袭 #特朗普税改

Guys, with the current prices, don't go long; it's honestly not appealing 🫰🏻🫰🏻

Currently, there is a serious division in the crypto market, and the market sentiment remains in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears...

Firstly, looking at the inflow of ETFs, it has been gradually shrinking over the past two days, and BTC has not formed a trend of increasing volume with rising prices; instead, it's rising in price while the volume is shrinking.

Recently, the straight surge of BTC has not formed a standard pullback, which again indicates unsustainable momentum. After all, a slow rise leads to a long bull market, so waiting for a pullback around 88,000 is the first step.

Although it has broken the downward trend line, the market sentiment is still not optimistic. Just look at the situation in the US stock market to know that the market has not reversed. We can't rely on blind guessing; what is a reversal? Breaking the trend line + pulling back to the previous high + breaking the current short-term high again = reversal. Right now, we can only call it the process of reversal.

Some say BTC doesn't follow the US stock market; this statement is not entirely accurate. Just look at the US stock market, the S&P 500, and other whiteboard trends to know that the movements from last night to today are basically similar. After all, it belongs to an incomplete risk asset but is not a complete safe-haven asset. Given that the liquidity in the market environment is not optimistic, even if it breaks 96,000 and then stabilizes to rise to 100,000, the risk-reward ratio may not be good. Going long right now is honestly not appealing.

Therefore, try not to go long unless there is a pullback. Only engage in high-probability events and trade in the direction of the trend.

Under normal circumstances: BTC around 95,000—96,000, will take some time to grind, slowly consuming the buying pressure. If it continues to fail to break through, it may naturally decline.

What is Trump's true purpose behind his bullish stance on gold?

Last time it was mentioned that Trump knows well that calling for a bullish stance on gold would negatively impact the dollar, yet he still does it for 2 reasons:

1. From a personal interest perspective; it is simply that he and his advisers have a short-term need to raise gold prices to sell off.

2. From the perspective of U.S. Treasury bonds; the tariff war, chip war, and a series of other combative strategies may be feigned actions, while the real purpose might be to create tension in the economic field, raise gold prices, and then use gold to repay U.S. national debt. After partially paying off the debt, they can repurchase gold to alleviate the U.S. debt burden without causing substantial loss to the country.

Whether for safe-haven assets or risk assets, right now under Trump's control, everything is volatile and unrelated to indicators, but rather connected to what he wants to do and what he says.
#加密市场反弹 $BTC

Today's BTC is strongly rebounding from a high position❗ Everything has a trace to follow...
BTC, as a complex risk asset, did not follow the decline of U.S. stocks this time, but instead followed the rise of gold.

Reason 1: Trump's remarks about the rules for gold holders led to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index, resulting in capital outflow into BTC and gold.

Reason 2: Trump's intention to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has shaken the stability of U.S. policy, and Musk's statement that Tesla's sales in Europe have fallen by 50% led to a significant drop in the Nasdaq index, which also resulted in capital flowing into BTC and gold.

Yesterday, BTC's uptrend deviated from U.S. stocks and instead followed the trend of gold, once again confirming that BTC indeed possesses the dual attributes of a risk asset and a safe-haven asset. After all, passing the ETF has its pros and cons; the advantage is that BTC can now be considered a commodity, making it an out-of-the-box product in the crypto space. However, it's worth mentioning that ETH also passed the ETF but instead followed the influence of U.S. stocks and declined, with both demonstrating the pros and cons of the ETF.

From the $340 million that flowed into cryptocurrency yesterday, it is clear that it primarily flowed into BTC, with none into ETH, resulting in differing trends for the two. Currently, BTC's market share in the crypto industry is 63%.

This wave of rebound is indeed strong for BTC, but once the market sentiment regarding the U.S. dollar index is digested, it will still likely pull back 📉, as there is no hot money entering the market, and it's unclear when BTC will follow U.S. stocks instead of gold. If BTC follows U.S. stocks, the long-term bearish view remains unchanged, as the U.S. economy is on shaky ground. Trump clearly knows that promoting gold will be bearish for the dollar, yet he continues to do so.

After dealing with tariffs and the Federal Reserve, with no more moves left, he again turns to the issue of dollar depreciation. How can we know what Trump will do next, or whether he himself has any idea how to achieve his goals? The market is fundamentally changeable and is difficult to remain unaffected by news.

Why didn't BTC follow the sharp drop in the US stock market?

History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. The last time the US stock market plummeted on April 3, BTC showed a lagging effect, not following the drop immediately, and only started to decline on April 7.

This time, the internal political conflicts between Trump and Powell in the US have escalated, leading to a 'triple kill' in stocks, bonds, and currencies.

Currently, BTC has broken through the price of 88,000 with no volume, but has not stabilized. The bullish sentiment still carries significant risks. As of now, the US stock market has fallen by 3.61%. This situation can be compared to March 12, 2020, when the US stock market experienced a circuit breaker, and BTC did not respond with an immediate drop, even rebounding at that time. While everyone was cheering, crypto assets were halved, catching everyone off guard.

At present, the international situation is turbulent and unpredictable, without any accurate data to rely on. Moreover, the Federal Reserve is not cutting interest rates, resulting in insufficient market liquidity. The long-term economy remains fragile, and the US stock market could experience a circuit breaker at any time, which is uncertain.

So it's not that BTC doesn’t follow, but that it follows late! Respect the risks, maintain sharp insights, and adjust investment strategies while also exercising control over your hands.
$BTC
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普施压鲍威尔

The US stock market is falling as mentioned this afternoon...
Next, we wait for $BTC to pull back and fall as expected
#加密市场反弹

The US Dollar Index DXY has fallen below the 98 mark for the first time since March 2022, dropping over 1% during the day.

Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the US has recently faced a triple hit in stocks, bonds, and currency, with traditional safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and the dollar no longer favored. Last week, Trump continuously criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and threatened to fire him, adding more negative factors for the dollar. Tonight's US stock market may also face significant challenges!
#加密市场反弹 $BTC

77220800604
The Political Conflict in the U.S. Escalates Again❗️❗️❗️

Trump threatens to fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell; why is Trump so anxious for a quick rate cut?

Since the tariff policy was announced on April 2, Trump has already shouldered the blame for causing an economic recession, but he didn't expect that Powell would still remain unyielding. Powell's stance remains: fearing an economic recession, the Federal Reserve may need to mitigate the impact of the trade war, so he doesn't want to take preemptive action, worrying about further worsening inflation.

Currently, the Federal Reserve doesn’t even want to talk, and there are no positive expectations being communicated. From his perspective, it can also be understood because, unless absolutely necessary, the Federal Reserve will not easily expand its balance sheet or cut interest rates. Arbitrarily expanding the balance sheet would lead to a severe inflation threat to the dollar's hegemony and manufacturing, so caution is necessary. Moreover, given the current economic conditions, expanding the balance sheet and cutting rates would only be a temporary fix, so currently, Trump and Bessent might seek other ways to sell U.S. bonds, possibly trying to avoid over-reliance on the Federal Reserve.

Before this; Trump may continue to pressure capital to buy U.S. stocks through stock market declines or force other countries to buy U.S. bonds through war. Additionally, continue to sanction through tariffs to purchase U.S. bonds.

If these methods ultimately fail and there are no solutions to save the U.S. bonds, he may once again seek rate cuts from the Federal Reserve; here the term is 'seek.'

Because in June, $6.5 trillion in U.S. bonds will mature, if the Federal Reserve does not continue to cut rates and other buyers do not continue to purchase U.S. bonds in large quantities, the situation will be very dangerous.

Why is Trump so concerned about rate cuts? Interest is the marginal cost of U.S. Treasury bonds; as long as interest can be paid normally, there will still be people willing to buy U.S. bonds in large quantities, which can continue to sustain this Ponzi scheme.

Ultimately, the Federal Reserve's rate cut may be realized in June, which means that April and May will be two months of policy volatility.

This time, Powell not only did not make dovish remarks but even leaned hawkish. Powell stated: he insists on not making any interest rate cuts and has not seen liquidity issues in the markets, system, or banks. He continues to observe the changes and currently does not see the need to rescue the market through interest rate cuts.

Regarding the sharp decline in the US stock market, Powell also stated that he would not intervene but would provide an explanation. After all, Trump is constantly changing, making it difficult to know what caused the troubles. At present, it is too early to conclude that there are problems in the market. He emphasized that the US economy is still in a robust state.

Currently, it can be seen that the new tariff policy is driving short-term inflation, and whether inflation can be sustained depends on three factors: the scale of impact, the duration of transmission to prices, and whether long-term inflation expectations can be firmly anchored.
At present, the Federal Reserve's stance remains primarily one of observation, ensuring a balance between inflation and employment.

However, in this speech, although technology stocks suffered a heavy blow, Powell's remarks praised digital currencies! For the crypto sector, this could be a potentially unsustainable temporary sentiment boost! After all, as he said, Trump's tariffs are variable and beyond expectations!
#比特币与美国关税政策 #鲍威尔发言
$BTC $SOL $BNB

OM, one of the top 20 altcoins by market value, has also gone bankrupt. Are there any altcoins that are credible in the crypto market?

Today, OM crashed 86%, forcing the market to increase its credit endorsement. Is it the project owner who ran away or the disorderly liquidation?

Regardless of the truth, it can be seen from this that the crypto market is an environment where even some dealers and big investors find it difficult to reap profits.

They are forced to look so ugly, thanks to these unscrupulous dealers for sending traffic to BTC.

A reminder: Don't buy at the bottom, and don't open a contract, be careful of being bounced!

I can only say that my friends who bought OM, please accept my condolences...
$OM #om