大眼睛

U.S. GDP contracted in the first quarter, recording -0.3%

The core PCE price index for the first quarter in the U.S. was 3.5%, higher than the expected 3.3%

Both sets of data are 'bearish' for the crypto market. Some may argue that negative GDP gives the Federal Reserve a reason to cut rates quickly, but Powell has consistently stated that he is only responsible for inflation. Therefore, this set of inflation data clearly does not provide sufficient justification for a rate cut in May.

What about June? It still depends on the specific economic indicators in May.
Moreover, it’s possible that there may not be a rate cut in June either. After all, is the U.S. debt crisis really unsolvable in the short term? Not necessarily!

The U.S. can continue to use short-term high-interest debt to repay medium- and long-term U.S. debt. Furthermore, a corresponding crisis occurred in 2023, and it has experience in resolving it. The U.S. might have already prepared the funds to repay this massive short-term debt of $36 trillion that is due in June, but it’s just not public! On the surface, it seems that Trump and the Federal Reserve are at odds, but in reality, the decision not to cut rates is because this will be the last card to play; there’s no need to reveal it unless necessary. Additionally, even if rates are cut, it can only be considered a stopgap for the economic situation in the U.S.

Tariffs have not been fully implemented yet, but it has already come to this. What must come will eventually come. With a negative GDP figure, we are no longer talking about expectations of a recession in the U.S. economy, but rather the fact of a recession. The path for the U.S. has become increasingly narrow, so cherish what remains... The mid-term outlook for the crypto market remains bearish
$BTC
#美股财报周来袭 #特朗普税改

Guys, with the current prices, don't go long; it's honestly not appealing 🫰🏻🫰🏻

Currently, there is a serious division in the crypto market, and the market sentiment remains in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears...

Firstly, looking at the inflow of ETFs, it has been gradually shrinking over the past two days, and BTC has not formed a trend of increasing volume with rising prices; instead, it's rising in price while the volume is shrinking.

Recently, the straight surge of BTC has not formed a standard pullback, which again indicates unsustainable momentum. After all, a slow rise leads to a long bull market, so waiting for a pullback around 88,000 is the first step.

Although it has broken the downward trend line, the market sentiment is still not optimistic. Just look at the situation in the US stock market to know that the market has not reversed. We can't rely on blind guessing; what is a reversal? Breaking the trend line + pulling back to the previous high + breaking the current short-term high again = reversal. Right now, we can only call it the process of reversal.

Some say BTC doesn't follow the US stock market; this statement is not entirely accurate. Just look at the US stock market, the S&P 500, and other whiteboard trends to know that the movements from last night to today are basically similar. After all, it belongs to an incomplete risk asset but is not a complete safe-haven asset. Given that the liquidity in the market environment is not optimistic, even if it breaks 96,000 and then stabilizes to rise to 100,000, the risk-reward ratio may not be good. Going long right now is honestly not appealing.

Therefore, try not to go long unless there is a pullback. Only engage in high-probability events and trade in the direction of the trend.

Under normal circumstances: BTC around 95,000—96,000, will take some time to grind, slowly consuming the buying pressure. If it continues to fail to break through, it may naturally decline.

What is Trump's true purpose behind his bullish stance on gold?

Last time it was mentioned that Trump knows well that calling for a bullish stance on gold would negatively impact the dollar, yet he still does it for 2 reasons:

1. From a personal interest perspective; it is simply that he and his advisers have a short-term need to raise gold prices to sell off.

2. From the perspective of U.S. Treasury bonds; the tariff war, chip war, and a series of other combative strategies may be feigned actions, while the real purpose might be to create tension in the economic field, raise gold prices, and then use gold to repay U.S. national debt. After partially paying off the debt, they can repurchase gold to alleviate the U.S. debt burden without causing substantial loss to the country.

Whether for safe-haven assets or risk assets, right now under Trump's control, everything is volatile and unrelated to indicators, but rather connected to what he wants to do and what he says.
#加密市场反弹 $BTC

Today's BTC is strongly rebounding from a high position❗ Everything has a trace to follow...
BTC, as a complex risk asset, did not follow the decline of U.S. stocks this time, but instead followed the rise of gold.

Reason 1: Trump's remarks about the rules for gold holders led to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index, resulting in capital outflow into BTC and gold.

Reason 2: Trump's intention to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has shaken the stability of U.S. policy, and Musk's statement that Tesla's sales in Europe have fallen by 50% led to a significant drop in the Nasdaq index, which also resulted in capital flowing into BTC and gold.

Yesterday, BTC's uptrend deviated from U.S. stocks and instead followed the trend of gold, once again confirming that BTC indeed possesses the dual attributes of a risk asset and a safe-haven asset. After all, passing the ETF has its pros and cons; the advantage is that BTC can now be considered a commodity, making it an out-of-the-box product in the crypto space. However, it's worth mentioning that ETH also passed the ETF but instead followed the influence of U.S. stocks and declined, with both demonstrating the pros and cons of the ETF.

From the $340 million that flowed into cryptocurrency yesterday, it is clear that it primarily flowed into BTC, with none into ETH, resulting in differing trends for the two. Currently, BTC's market share in the crypto industry is 63%.

This wave of rebound is indeed strong for BTC, but once the market sentiment regarding the U.S. dollar index is digested, it will still likely pull back 📉, as there is no hot money entering the market, and it's unclear when BTC will follow U.S. stocks instead of gold. If BTC follows U.S. stocks, the long-term bearish view remains unchanged, as the U.S. economy is on shaky ground. Trump clearly knows that promoting gold will be bearish for the dollar, yet he continues to do so.

After dealing with tariffs and the Federal Reserve, with no more moves left, he again turns to the issue of dollar depreciation. How can we know what Trump will do next, or whether he himself has any idea how to achieve his goals? The market is fundamentally changeable and is difficult to remain unaffected by news.

Why didn't BTC follow the sharp drop in the US stock market?

History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. The last time the US stock market plummeted on April 3, BTC showed a lagging effect, not following the drop immediately, and only started to decline on April 7.

This time, the internal political conflicts between Trump and Powell in the US have escalated, leading to a 'triple kill' in stocks, bonds, and currencies.

Currently, BTC has broken through the price of 88,000 with no volume, but has not stabilized. The bullish sentiment still carries significant risks. As of now, the US stock market has fallen by 3.61%. This situation can be compared to March 12, 2020, when the US stock market experienced a circuit breaker, and BTC did not respond with an immediate drop, even rebounding at that time. While everyone was cheering, crypto assets were halved, catching everyone off guard.

At present, the international situation is turbulent and unpredictable, without any accurate data to rely on. Moreover, the Federal Reserve is not cutting interest rates, resulting in insufficient market liquidity. The long-term economy remains fragile, and the US stock market could experience a circuit breaker at any time, which is uncertain.

So it's not that BTC doesn’t follow, but that it follows late! Respect the risks, maintain sharp insights, and adjust investment strategies while also exercising control over your hands.
$BTC
#加密市场反弹 #特朗普施压鲍威尔

The US stock market is falling as mentioned this afternoon...
Next, we wait for $BTC to pull back and fall as expected
#加密市场反弹

The US Dollar Index DXY has fallen below the 98 mark for the first time since March 2022, dropping over 1% during the day.

Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the US has recently faced a triple hit in stocks, bonds, and currency, with traditional safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and the dollar no longer favored. Last week, Trump continuously criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and threatened to fire him, adding more negative factors for the dollar. Tonight's US stock market may also face significant challenges!
#加密市场反弹 $BTC

77220800604
The Political Conflict in the U.S. Escalates Again❗️❗️❗️

Trump threatens to fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell; why is Trump so anxious for a quick rate cut?

Since the tariff policy was announced on April 2, Trump has already shouldered the blame for causing an economic recession, but he didn't expect that Powell would still remain unyielding. Powell's stance remains: fearing an economic recession, the Federal Reserve may need to mitigate the impact of the trade war, so he doesn't want to take preemptive action, worrying about further worsening inflation.

Currently, the Federal Reserve doesn’t even want to talk, and there are no positive expectations being communicated. From his perspective, it can also be understood because, unless absolutely necessary, the Federal Reserve will not easily expand its balance sheet or cut interest rates. Arbitrarily expanding the balance sheet would lead to a severe inflation threat to the dollar's hegemony and manufacturing, so caution is necessary. Moreover, given the current economic conditions, expanding the balance sheet and cutting rates would only be a temporary fix, so currently, Trump and Bessent might seek other ways to sell U.S. bonds, possibly trying to avoid over-reliance on the Federal Reserve.

Before this; Trump may continue to pressure capital to buy U.S. stocks through stock market declines or force other countries to buy U.S. bonds through war. Additionally, continue to sanction through tariffs to purchase U.S. bonds.

If these methods ultimately fail and there are no solutions to save the U.S. bonds, he may once again seek rate cuts from the Federal Reserve; here the term is 'seek.'

Because in June, $6.5 trillion in U.S. bonds will mature, if the Federal Reserve does not continue to cut rates and other buyers do not continue to purchase U.S. bonds in large quantities, the situation will be very dangerous.

Why is Trump so concerned about rate cuts? Interest is the marginal cost of U.S. Treasury bonds; as long as interest can be paid normally, there will still be people willing to buy U.S. bonds in large quantities, which can continue to sustain this Ponzi scheme.

Ultimately, the Federal Reserve's rate cut may be realized in June, which means that April and May will be two months of policy volatility.

This time, Powell not only did not make dovish remarks but even leaned hawkish. Powell stated: he insists on not making any interest rate cuts and has not seen liquidity issues in the markets, system, or banks. He continues to observe the changes and currently does not see the need to rescue the market through interest rate cuts.

Regarding the sharp decline in the US stock market, Powell also stated that he would not intervene but would provide an explanation. After all, Trump is constantly changing, making it difficult to know what caused the troubles. At present, it is too early to conclude that there are problems in the market. He emphasized that the US economy is still in a robust state.

Currently, it can be seen that the new tariff policy is driving short-term inflation, and whether inflation can be sustained depends on three factors: the scale of impact, the duration of transmission to prices, and whether long-term inflation expectations can be firmly anchored.
At present, the Federal Reserve's stance remains primarily one of observation, ensuring a balance between inflation and employment.

However, in this speech, although technology stocks suffered a heavy blow, Powell's remarks praised digital currencies! For the crypto sector, this could be a potentially unsustainable temporary sentiment boost! After all, as he said, Trump's tariffs are variable and beyond expectations!
#比特币与美国关税政策 #鲍威尔发言
$BTC $SOL $BNB

OM, one of the top 20 altcoins by market value, has also gone bankrupt. Are there any altcoins that are credible in the crypto market?

Today, OM crashed 86%, forcing the market to increase its credit endorsement. Is it the project owner who ran away or the disorderly liquidation?

Regardless of the truth, it can be seen from this that the crypto market is an environment where even some dealers and big investors find it difficult to reap profits.

They are forced to look so ugly, thanks to these unscrupulous dealers for sending traffic to BTC.

A reminder: Don't buy at the bottom, and don't open a contract, be careful of being bounced!

I can only say that my friends who bought OM, please accept my condolences...
$OM #om

The tariff exemption policy is out! Trump adjusts to protect his own…

The scope of exempted products includes: high-tech products in the semiconductor and computer components category (see the picture), so next week's performance of high-tech stocks will be good. Additionally, components needed for cryptocurrency mining are also included in the exemption, providing a positive outlook for the crypto market.

From the issues with the U.S. Customs system yesterday to today's exemption of tariffs on high-tech products, this is all a delaying tactic by the wise king! What is he doing this for?

As mentioned in the last two articles, the reason this weekend will be better is: Trump has truly realized that his impact on the U.S. economy exceeds his own expectations. Now, he is only thinking about supporting the U.S. stock market and U.S. bonds,
while maintaining the economic order of the United States, continuing to create a recession.

The recent rebound expectations in the crypto market have also been performing very well, based on the data being released; PPI and CPI cannot simply be positively or negatively predicted, as they have dual sides.

Having analyzed CPI, let's discuss the issue of PPI being below expectations. This signals an economic recession, which could accelerate expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This is one conclusion, but from the opposite perspective: the emergence of an economic recession, is simply cutting interest rates not a case of too little, too late? In the medium term, the market lacks money, and liquidity is still poor.

Additionally, the funds escaping from U.S. stocks and bonds have not entered the crypto market, so the possibility of a reversal remains low. This current rebound belongs to the good news from Trump's tariff adjustments and the recovery of U.S. stocks.
Because Trump's current thinking is to support the U.S. stock and bond markets, occasionally bringing in a piece of good news for adjustments. It does not mean that the economic recession of U.S. stocks will not exist, or that tariffs do not need to continue being enforced. The market still maintains a logic of continuation of bearish sentiment…
#加密市场反弹 $BTC

The weekend rebounded and rose, what will you do next?

In the early hours of today, U.S. stocks closed up 2.06% compared to yesterday. Influenced by the rise in U.S. stocks, BTC reached a high of 84300 this morning.

This weekend is unlikely to see significant declines, unlike previous ones, it is a weekend filled with emotional value.

BTC's 86000 is a chip pressure level, so if it can return above 84000, it would be a very appealing position to short.

Why do I say that?

U.S. tariffs will still be implemented, but they will be adjusted based on the specific situation of U.S. stocks and bonds. In the future, tariffs will be influenced by the selling of U.S. bonds, and Trump's enforcement will weaken, with grand announcements but cautious implementations!

So in the long term, it’s still mainly bearish. In the short term, if it drops below 78000, consider a small long position, but only a small one, as the risk of going long is greater than going short.
For spot bottom-fishing: consider entering a small part below 74000—72000.
$BTC #加密市场反弹

Why did the positive CPI data lead to a sharp decline in cryptocurrency?

The recent cryptocurrency market has been hectic, with good and bad news coming in by the hour, and data indicators needing to be referenced in both directions and repeatedly verified.

For instance, today's CPI normally would have directly stimulated the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, but the market fell sharply at the same time.

The first reason is: the Nasdaq index plummeted by 6%, and BTC had to follow suit.

The second reason is: the CPI expectation value was too low, indicating that the market is currently facing deflation, which, while it may lead to a Federal Reserve rate cut, also signifies the onset of a recession.

Additionally, it's worth noting that China has been subjected to a 145% tariff.
Although this is a negative expectation that many anticipate, it is still worth considering; China's retaliatory stance may soon trigger another wave of decline!
$BTC #CPI数据来袭 #美国加征关税

CPI published value 2.4, expected value 2.8 is good news for #CPI数据来袭

The expectation for the upcoming rebound has become more certain, and low positions can be considered for entry. Currently, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are getting closer to June.

Now Powell should show some weakness, the market needs you! Haha
$BTC

The cryptocurrency market really depends on the whims of Chuan Chuan. Yesterday it was said that the bad news has been fully released, and any fluctuations could be positive, but whether the next piece of news will be bad is still unknown.

In any case, the news is as chaotic as it can get right now; even Trump might not know what he wants to do. Those in spot trading need not worry, but it's best for those in contracts to take a break! Observe more before taking action.
$BTC $ETH #美国加征关税

China 🇨🇳 has really risen up

This trade war is definitely a historic change initiator, and China no longer seems to be an easily manipulated soft target. This time, it may have left the thick-skinned Trump bewildered; this slap in the face was loud!

In fact, the 104% that the U.S. holds against China is completely unnecessary, while China's 84% against the U.S. is truly lethal.

Let's see how Trump will respond next; we won't need to watch Sichuan opera face-changing anymore, just watching Trump change his expressions will be enough.

The future market really is going to be tough; this situation makes it hard to rely on data alone for accuracy; now we have to watch Trump's and Xi's expressions to decide how to proceed.
#美国加征关税 $BTC

❗️❗️❗️Attention to those with ETH~
Possible to face a significant drop
$ETH #巨鲸动向 #美国加征关税

Debunking: Is it false news that the U.S. is increasing tariffs on China by 104%?

Currently, the market is reacting in advance to yesterday's decline due to news that a 104% tariff increase on China will be implemented tomorrow.

When fake news is released in the market, one must consider whether it is a scheme by the major players to trick retail investors into selling early. There is a high probability that the market may continue to decline tomorrow, but after reaching a suitable position, there could be a rebound as the negative news is fully priced in.

Specifically, pay attention to whether Trump's tariff flexibility is relaxed, remains unchanged, or is increased?
$BTC #美国加征关税

What would you do if the crypto market experienced another 312?

Currently, all stocks: A-shares, pre-market US stocks, if the Nasdaq drops another 5000 points, it would be equivalent to a halving.

The viewpoint I have shared with everyone previously is: 'Short when high', the overall trend is pointing towards recession, so don’t blindly do counterproductive 'psychological construction' and feed yourself toxic positivity.

Let me reiterate, the negative impact of tariffs is far from just a short-term concern; April 9th is approaching as the day for reciprocal tariffs to be implemented. If Trump does not change his stance, the negative impact will certainly continue after April 9th!

The earliest certain positive news is expected around June to July, when interest rate cuts are implemented as scheduled, global risk assets will start to see improvement.

It is expected that BTC at the 75000 level will still break down further!
If you are afraid, it is advisable to stay in cash and wait…
#巨鲸动向 #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调
$BTC $ETH $SOL