Next Thursday evening, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is approaching, and recently the positive developments in cryptocurrency have mostly settled, leading everyone to seem desensitized to other economic indicators. Therefore, the interest rate meeting will serve as a defining watershed for bulls and bears. Personally, I still feel bearish; as I mentioned before, there might not be a rate cut in June, and this time I am certain there won't be a rate cut in July.
So when exactly will the rate cuts happen in the second half of the year, and will there even be a rate cut? This has become a key point moving forward.
The Federal Reserve is basically not a brand known for rate cuts; the market generally believes there might be a rate cut in September, but I estimate that even if the Americans want to cut rates, they won’t say it first.
Moreover, the lagging effects of Trump's tariff policy have just begun, and inflation is expected to continue rising in the coming months, which is a signal against rate cuts.
Therefore, the signal for not cutting rates in September is already clear, and it remains the same formula and flavor. They still won’t announce the specific timing of rate cut expectations and will make the final decision based on the impact of Trump's tariffs, making it difficult to reach a conclusion even within this year.
For the market, the mid-term outlook is bearish, while the long-term outlook is bullish. From the perspective of the main forces, if there is a rate cut, BTC will inevitably reach new highs, and the current pullback and consolidation are far from enough.
One can only say: the time to bottom out has not yet arrived…
