What I've been hearing the most these days is that the traders around me who use technical indicators to trade contracts are frequently hitting stop losses and facing liquidation.
And the frequent news of whales shorting and facing liquidation, this time the market makers are determined to make a big shift.
Since the end of April, the price has been rising almost without a pullback. It is clear that the leading crypto BTC has shown many signs of divergence during this rise, indicating that as the price rises, retail investors are unwilling to enter, yet it is still rising? This proves that this is a highly controlled rise by the market makers.
What is the reason for retail investors not entering the market while the price is rising: it is not merely to attract retail investors to enter, let's broaden the perspective: could it be to let the whole world see BTC again, and who would be the beneficiary? From the fact that various states in the United States are gradually passing BTC strategic reserves and the frequent release of messages from Trump, we can see that the underlying logic of the rise is the long-prepared news from the U.S.
Trump is all about brand names, and behind each brand name is a deeper conspiracy.
On the surface, the crypto market is Trump's cash machine, but in reality, it is an exchange for the dollar to detach from its hegemony; whether it will pass the baton remains to be seen, after all, even the U.S. doesn't know.
Of course, this does not mean that BTC can revive the dollar; the dollar's hegemony will definitely end, it's just a matter of time. The current state of the U.S. stock market is also precarious. It cannot be solved just by shouting orders; the economic issues in the U.S. are laid out.
So can BTC not follow the U.S. stock market this time? This just happens to be Trump's purpose and the reason for this strong rise. The point that BTC is easy to manipulate is: it is both a risk asset and a safe-haven asset. After all, there are reasons to justify both rises and falls!
So the price is definitely going to rise next, because as mentioned earlier, to let the whole world see BTC again, it must break new highs or even higher; how can it gain attention? The U.S. has BTC reserves, and we don't know how much the undisclosed data is, so who benefits from raising the price at this stage? It's easy to imagine.
When will it drop? First, when the U.S. needs to continue purchasing strategic reserves. Second, when it needs to withdraw liquidity to pay off debts.
In the long run: this time point should be right before the interest rate cuts start in the second half of the year. The probability is high that a decline needs to be completed between May and June; if not, it will go the opposite way: after the interest rate cuts, it won't rise but will instead plunge.
So in the near term, we will continue to see an upward trend, after all, the China-U.S. trade negotiations are ongoing, and whether expectations are good or bad, tariffs will only get lower; lower is good news, as the current market is driven by news rather than technicals.
We just need to play our part 😁 In this cycle, understanding human nature > understanding news > understanding technical indicators.