木木_Mu

Hi【Before looking at the list with Mu Mu】

【Joining the highest level of compliance commission】

1）I like predicting and marking ideal trends in the chart with lines, but please approach predictions rationally, as the market is unpredictable.

Anything can happen at any time, and it can be understood that the chart depicts the expected market conditions expressed in words.

If it were to move ideally, how should it go, where to take profit, where it will face resistance, and whether it will drop after the resistance or continue to rise.

The prediction chart will provide the ideal trend for traders to understand the key points I want to express and the take profit and stop loss levels.

Most of the time, I trade BTC, with only a small amount of time spent on ETH.

2）How do the tweets come about?
If you read my articles for a while, you will notice that my articles lean towards a personal trading style rather than just analyzing the market.

In other words, I am simply translating my personal trades into what is called the analyst's language presented in the tweets.

When trading with me, I hope you use small positions, trading space for time.

The suggestion is that short trades should not lose more than 1% of the contract funds, medium-term trades 2-3%, long-term trades 5%, setting rules based on your own funds.

《To make money, first avoid major losses》

3）I am not a teacher who always profits.
Following the second point, since my articles are shared based on my own trading experiences, you should feel that.

When I give trades, I clearly tell you where to short, where to long, whether I am bearish or bullish, and whether to open a position or not; thus, I cannot win both sides.

I often take losses and also make big gains; being real is my foundation.
For example, I made a big profit of 16000 points last week and lost 3000 points this week; you can find this in my historical articles.

4）The commission rebate is a way to support me by making money from my articles.
If you have been trading for a while without a rebate, you can find your overall fees in the data, which is not a small amount. I can offer you a 20% rebate off the highest level of compliance, and the rebate will be provided weekly.

The support I can offer my clients is to help you solve problems in trading, providing constructive advice from the perspective of my ability to continue making profits, helping you grow, and your story can also become my experience in studying trading psychology.

You can directly add me as a friend on Binance chat.
In the chat function -> add friends -> enter ID: hpj2gp1

Finally, friends, this is my last piece of advice.

To make money, first avoid major losses.

Observe the trend of $BTC with price action and trading

First, the conclusion is that opening a long position near the current price is good, betting on a wave of upward movement.

On the daily level, the market gave BTC a failed upward breakthrough at the 94000 mark, resulting in three bearish candlestick combinations, beginning to decline. This period of fluctuation has lasted a long time. If we view the current market as a wide channel, it currently belongs to the third push point of the wide channel.

On the 8-hour level, the fluctuation interval formed by several days of repeated drawing of doors was broken downward. At the same time, when reaching the bottom of the large wide channel, it pulled back upward, with support being effective. I want to bet that this support will continue to be effective.

So the conclusion is
Near the current price of 89500, I will go long, with a stop-loss at the previous low of 87500, betting on an upward range of a wide channel, with a target at 100000.

If the position hits the stop-loss, then observe the rebound after breaking below 87500. If suppressed by the bottom of the channel, I will consider going short.

This is the current plan

If the order is not settled, does that mean this is not your money?

No

As long as your USDT is still in the exchange

this is not your money

The probability of losing everything is still very high

Observe the price behavior and trading methods of $BTC

From the daily chart, BTC shows a clear upward three-push pattern and a double-top test that cannot break 94000. The upward three-push pattern follows the same underlying logic as the Dow Theory's repeated attempts, all indicating a bearish outlook.

Currently, it is in a wide channel upward within a downtrend, which on a larger scale is a bear flag. Therefore, from the daily chart perspective, it is almost certain that BTC will return to 80000, and it may even break below the 80000 support and continue to decline.

However, the question arises: has this third push ended?
It can be observed that there is a significant entity gap between BTC's current price and a support level on the daily chart. This is not a price gap; if the third push declines from here, it indicates a very strong downward trend, even leading to a proportional drop from 107000 to 80000, ultimately landing at 67000, which corresponds to last year's large-scale fluctuation range.

My view is that I hope the price will rise again, supported by the current channel, to test around 100000. Thus, the rise caused by interest rate cuts would be a rebound resulting from the decline from 94000 to 87000, and the market will once again conduct a final push to entice, filling the gap while initiating a large-scale fluctuation range.

Of course, this is just a judgment. If the candlestick behavior breaks the support and tests the lower boundary of the channel again, it will be an opportunity to short.

Therefore, the derived operation is to
attempt to go long near 87000, with a 2000-point stop loss. If it breaks down here without hitting the stop loss, it is highly likely to give traders a chance to escape, which means testing the support near 87000 again. If it rises after support, the risk-reward ratio is extremely high.

The second scenario is that the market does not test 87000 and rebounds today, breaking through the pressure. In this case, the double-top test will be invalid, and short positions will be entered in batches between 97500 and 100000.

All of the above plans

Left, short position, I sold near the cost price. With major news approaching and no floating profit, not opening a position is my rule.

The best time for a short position was actually last night, but BTC did not drop to find channel support; instead, it rose. The market is not sick, and its trend has its reasons. My short position has been held until today, the third day, and the price is still near my cost price. I won't hold on; it's not because I'm not bearish, but in the face of news, I tend to lose more than I win, and I can't guess whether it will be 50bp or 25bp.

BTC is in a weak rebound on the bearish side at the daily level. Looking at the current rise on the daily level, it is a selling signal, especially if there is a rise of several thousand points tonight to 97500-100000. Do not chase the long; this is a selling signal.

At the four-hour level, the wide channel's upward bottom support remains our long support. Before BTC makes a false breakout upwards, I think the price will eventually go above 97000. However, I cannot judge well under the influence of news, so I simply do left-side trading and give up right-side trading.

Based on the above conclusion, I can derive two hanging order plans.
If the price drops first, I will long when the price reaches 86000-87000.
If the price surges up to 97500-100000 after the news is released, I will short in batches within this 2500-point range to fill my position, targeting 83000, with the first order being void.

If traders can make early judgments and responses to various market trends

then emotional trading will not occur when events happen, as previously validated

The reason for not adding to positions is that the price did not directly test 94500 after my post, but rather tested after a day of fluctuations. Although the position was identified, there was a deviation at the internal time level, so no additional positions were taken

The position continues to be held; last night's false breakout to the upside will increase the win rate of short positions. As the news approaches, maintain a 4% position and do not add to the position; set the stop loss at 96000

#美联储FOMC会议

"The Consequences of Structure"

Just kidding, this kind of pull-up is indeed faster than I imagined, but the earlier mentioned short position is at 40% of the position

Because the price going to clear the stop loss above 94000 is something I expected to happen, just the pull-up is so fast that I don't consider adding to my position

Position stop loss above 96000, not being stopped out, the target remains 86500-87000

Place an order and go to sleep

If the market presents an opportunity, I will take profits on short positions around 86500 and then open long positions.

In the previous analysis, it was mentioned that BTC might test 94000 or might not test 94000, but their movements are essentially the same, seeking support at the bottom of the same pullback channel.

$BTC shows a demand for a significant upward breakout on a larger scale and macro level (combined with expectations of interest rate cuts leading to a false breakout), while on a smaller scale, there is also a demand for a downward pullback (a buildup behavior at the bottom of the pullback channel).

Therefore, for the positions, I will hold until the support at around 86500 for profit taking, and after taking profits, I will open long positions with a stop loss of 2000 points.

This aims to profit in the large range of 86000- (97000-100000).

I enjoy predicting market movements, but my so-called predictions are not about drawing an ideal trend that the market must follow; rather, they provide traders with an ideal understanding of my trading plan.

Now, making another judgment, after receiving long positions, I will hold until BTC breaks through the wide channel resistance around 97000-100000 (partially closing positions at resistance), and open short positions below 100000, aiming for 83000.

$BTC 92000 Sell short at the market price above, placed at the highest point of the current range.

The only downside is that not the entire position was taken, and no additional positions will be considered.

A group of buyers appeared around the 90000 mark when the price fell, and most high-leverage buyers have their stop-losses set between 89500 and 89700.

This range has a probability of attracting the price to liquidate, causing a drop to 90000 and continuing the decline.

Proceed according to the plan.

$BTC Gaming downturn wave, daily MA30 entry position

— Short Position
92300: Daily MA30, first short entry, 40%
94500: Dense short liquidation zone, continue to add 20%
→ Overall short position 60%; if 94500 is reached, stop loss 2000 points

— Long Position
86500-87000: Channel lower support, go long

—————————————

1) Operate based on the bear flag structure of the daily level rising wide channel
Utilize channel support/resistance interval for both long and short strategies

2) Final target for long position: 97,000 – 100,000

Major short liquidation range + false breakout of the channel upper boundary

Long position entry point is the immediate take profit point for the short position, previous first position has been entered

This plan is only for personal trading records; any copying must maintain consistent position sizes for each entry

Also, the square and push are all bullish? It's making me a bit anxious about shorting

$BTC Order update, I entered a short position with 40% of the initial position near the current price.

The reason for the small position is that there is a probability that the price will reach above 94000 again to liquidate the shorts.

The reason for not placing an order above 94000 is also a probability issue; the price may not reach there.

So I initially entered a small position of 40%, and will update the operation plan later.

The order at 92000 was not executed even once
I was sleeping, so I didn't enter at the market price
I won't do this here
When the price dipped downward last night, I judged that the price rebound could not just hit 90200
There is a high probability of continuing to surge
So I updated my comment to place an order at 92000
But the highest price was at 91800
I missed it the first time
So I won't continue placing orders here

For the next short position, I will consider the position at 94800
And I will continue to consider entering above 86000 for long positions

These two orders are precautionary orders for the day session, regarding the trading plan, I will wait for the day session to run for a while and update it in the evening

$BTC continues to gamble, looking for trading opportunities amidst the fluctuations

1) Place a sell order between 90200-90500, with a stop loss at 92000, aiming for above 86000, aiming for a 1:2 risk-reward ratio

2) Support above 86000 to open a long position, targeting 97000 to 100000, here reduce the position size to use 70% and extend the stop loss

3) If the first order is not filled or hits the stop loss, it does not affect the second order operation

Reasons for trading

Before the price breaks 90000, I believe the price will go directly to settle around 97000, but the actual market trend did not continue to rise but broke the support at 90000. Once the support is broken, it becomes short-term resistance, and I no longer expect a sustained rise but rather anticipate a price rebound to 90000, where trapped longs and newly opened shorts will sell, causing the price to continue to fall. Meanwhile, weekend short-term shorts opened near the current price mostly have their stop losses around 90000, making this a good opportunity for speculation

When the price approaches 86000, I hope to see a third push supported by the channel leading to the most violent rise near 10000, looking for shorting opportunities again

Although we can capture interval profits in the fluctuating range, if BTC breaks out of a daily level rising wide channel during a downtrend, it is effectively a bear flag, and the price has a chance to break below 80000 again, but this is not a concern at the moment; I will observe further

All short-term plans above

Seeing a lot of comments about the bear market in the market

For example, continuing to enter the bear market after a rebound

For me, the spot premium allows me to clearly see the indicators of accumulation and distribution

If BTC continues to oscillate at a high point while the spot remains below the 0 axis

It is likely to be distribution

On the contrary, if there are no obvious signs of distribution, such as the recent market conditions

What I should care about is how to seize profits and bottom out during fluctuations

The bear market is not something I should be concerned about right now

$BTC The first target for long positions is at 94000, and the second target is between 97000 and 98000.

After reaching the 97000-98000 range, reverse to open short positions.

- BTC quickly recovered after the night sell-off, and the current price of 92300 is still within a safe range, with long positions in floating profit, providing a stop loss at 90700 which has not been reached.
- Overall, the upward trend has not changed, and the bullish divergence indicators have diluted the danger signals through time-based repairs.
- This has increased the winning probability of the long positions I hold. Yes, the winning probability of each position changes continuously with time and the movement of K-lines.
- As time goes on, the short liquidity around 94000 is increasing, and with the divergence indicators, price is being repaired over time, so long positions continue to be held.

Take profits in batches: partial take profits at 94000-94500.
Full take profits at 97000-98000.

No more short positions. If 94000 is reached and the price faces downward pressure, I will add to my position again after reaching the support level targeting 97000.

$BTC Next step trading plan - there is space for both long and short positions, depending on how to seize it.

From the daily chart, BTC's price cannot effectively break through MA30 and is currently hesitating near MA30.

- From the lower time frame candlestick chart, we will consider the rise from 80000 to the current price in two segments as the same upward trend, meaning the price encountered a large volume supply at 93000, leading to a rapid decline. However, the bulls are not to be underestimated, as they recovered the drop within a day. We believe this is a downward failure, a false breakout, as the bears want to regain control of the market, but evidently, the bulls are stronger.

- However, power always has its limits. The current BTC candlestick indicates a new signal for me, suggesting it could establish a short-term new high and even break through 97000. Yet, the divergence in the lower time frame indicators and the current price behavior within the consolidation range signal that even if it breaks through the top of the wide channel, it is likely the last push. Such behavior provides me with the opportunity to short.

- For my trading method, the first position is a bet on the wide channel's starting point, which is a long position at 92000. This is my speculative trade, simply put, it's like flipping a coin, with a stop loss placed at the one-hour low of 91500. Since I am going long in an upward trend, it will help my win rate in the direction of the trend. If the long position gets an opportunity at the bottom of the wide channel during the evening, you can also enter.

Therefore, maintain the view that the bulls' ultimate target is above 97000.
Before reaching 97000-98000, rely on the upward wide channel for low buying and high selling.

- The first entry point for the trade is to go long between the bottom of the wide channel at 92000, targeting above 95000, using a coin flip strategy. If this trade is successful, subsequent trades will be even more profitable.
- Short at the top of the wide channel above 95000, targeting the bottom of the wide channel above 93000.
- After reaching the bottom, take profit and go long, targeting 97000.
- Take profit on long positions between 98000 and short back, targeting 83000.

The above is my subjective judgment on the future price movements, and I will mark it in the chart below.

If my long position does not take profit and gets stopped out, it indicates that the bulls here are weaker and may not be able to clear the large bearish stop loss zone above 97000, then wait for the next opportunity.

A short position can be placed long-term between 97000-98000. For me, a 50% position with a stop loss equal to double the usual position size.

$BTC The rise has lost strength, and the smaller indicators are diverging, signaling that the rise is about to end.

The bulls will not see a continuation of the trend because we are essentially still in a fluctuating range; the price will return to 83000.
Short-term operations can see a slightly noticeable upward wide channel.

If the breakthrough continues to fail, the price may drop prematurely, leading to a failure of the wide channel pattern.

Short-term operation: Rely on the wide channel for low buying and high selling, with the final target expected to be between 97000-98000.

Last night, there were no opportunities on the left side, but after a small double bottom, I closed my long position and reduced my holdings at 94000.
My operational plan is as follows:
- Close all long positions near 95000 and open a short position.
- Take profit on short positions near 93000 and open a long position.
- Take profit between 97000-98000 and reverse to open a short position.

The entry points will rise over time because the channel is upward.
This is the standard operational style of the wide channel; if the channel is not formed or is broken, then the above orders are invalid.

Today, there are not many good opportunities on the left side of the market.
Although BTC is strongly bullish, there are signs of divergence at a smaller scale.
At the same time, there has been no effective breakthrough in resistance.
In such an environment, if I go long, it contradicts my trading system.
So I won't take any positions for now; I'll wait for it to move a bit.

On the right side, I will trade normally, but I can't share such trades as there are too many short-term operations.

If extreme market conditions occur, the next short-selling point for BTC is in the 98000-10000 range.
Using half a position with a long stop-loss,
here I can at least secure a profit of 10000 points.

Anything can happen in the market
No opportunity is worth using all your capital
Yesterday's short position made a big profit
Today it has surged back again
Who captured all the profits?
Or is everyone getting hit?

Only use 80% of the capital
This is my sixth sense
The bad news is the short position stop loss
The good news is typical oscillation characteristics of big rises and falls
BTC will at least see a long period of large range oscillation
Continue to trade tomorrow
Waiting for it to present an opportunity

If the price can break through 91500 with volume
There will be opportunities to continue looking up

The last thing, won't it hit my stop loss before I go down again?