CoinPhoton

Ark Invest projects a sharp expansion of the crypto market through the end of the decade, estimating that bitcoin could reach a market capitalization of around $16 trillion by 2030, implying a price of roughly $761,900 per BTC under the assumption of a fixed supply of 21 million coins. The firm also forecasts that the broader crypto market could grow to approximately $28 trillion in total value, with bitcoin maintaining a dominant share.
In its Big Ideas 2026 report, Ark argues that bitcoin is maturing into the cornerstone of a new institutional asset class. The firm positions bitcoin primarily as a digital store of value, often compared to “digital gold,” and expects its long-term growth to be driven by rising institutional participation, increased adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs, expanding corporate treasury allocations, and gradually declining volatility.
Ark notes that institutional ownership is already significant. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and public companies now collectively hold about 12% of the total bitcoin supply. In 2025 alone, ETF bitcoin holdings grew nearly 20%, while public company holdings surged more than 70%, highlighting accelerating institutional demand.
Based on Ark’s projections, bitcoin’s market capitalization could grow at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 63% over the next five years, rising from around $2 trillion today to $16 trillion by 2030. While Ark has slightly adjusted its assumptions—raising its estimate for bitcoin’s “digital gold” opportunity after gold’s market cap surged, but lowering expectations for bitcoin as a safe haven in emerging markets due to the rapid adoption of stablecoins—the firm says its overall outlook for 2030 remains relatively stable.
Beyond bitcoin, Ark expects smart contract platforms to account for much of the remaining growth in the crypto market. The firm forecasts that smart contract networks could collectively reach around $6 trillion in market capitalization by 2030, supported by the expansion of onchain financial activity, tokenized securities, and decentralized applications.

Bags, a Solana-based launchpad, has seen explosive growth as the viral adoption of Anthropic’s Claude Code among developers sparked a frenzy of AI-linked token launches. Launchpad fees surged to over $100,000 in a single day, far surpassing previous records, while the number of tokens graduating from Bags overtook Pump.fun. This surge coincided with a broader rise in Solana network activity, with transactions and active addresses climbing nearly 50% over two weeks.
The trend is driven by speculation around open-source AI projects, where tokens are launched for popular repositories and, in some cases, later claimed by the actual project developers who then receive trading fees. While this model could be validated if developers actively adopt and build around these tokens, its sustainability remains uncertain. Failed follow-through risks turning the current wave into pure speculation, as illustrated by the $GAS token, which collapsed rapidly after initial developer support was withdrawn.

Trump says he hopes to sign sweeping crypto legislation “very soon”
U.S. President Donald Trump said he hopes to sign comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation into law “very soon,” even as divisions persist among key stakeholders over several core provisions.
Speaking Wednesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump reiterated his view that the United States is the “crypto capital of the world,” noting that Congress is working intensively on market structure legislation covering crypto and bitcoin.
Momentum to pass the bill in the Senate has increased following a turbulent week, during which Coinbase withdrew its support and the Senate Banking Committee postponed a scheduled hearing at the last minute. One of the most contentious issues centers on stablecoin rewards, pitting banking groups against the crypto industry.
Banking associations have criticized the GENIUS stablecoin law passed over the summer, arguing that while it prohibits issuers from paying direct interest to stablecoin holders, it still allows third-party platforms such as Coinbase to offer rewards. Banks warn this could draw deposits away from community lenders, while crypto firms accuse banks of trying to stifle competition.
White House officials and industry leaders have urged swift passage of the bill to avoid losing momentum under the current pro-crypto administration. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse called for approval, saying that while no legislation is perfect, a clear regulatory framework is needed to allow innovation to flourish.
White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks also emphasized the need for compromise, saying he supports reaching a solution that would allow market structure legislation to reach the president’s desk.
The Senate Agriculture Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing on Jan. 27 to amend and vote on its version of the crypto bill, with legislative text expected to be released this week. The Senate Banking Committee has not yet rescheduled its hearing.

Neynar acquires Farcaster in $1 billion–valued deal
Decentralized social media infrastructure firm Neynar, backed by Haun Ventures, is acquiring Farcaster, the Ethereum-based social media protocol previously valued at $1 billion, from R&D firm Merkle Manufactory.
According to the announcement, ownership of Farcaster’s protocol contracts, code repositories, the Farcaster app and Clanker will be transferred to Neynar in the coming weeks. Neynar will take over ongoing maintenance and operation of the entire ecosystem.
Farcaster founder Dan Romero said Neynar is well positioned to lead the protocol’s next phase and will soon share a new builder-focused vision. Romero and co-founder Varun Srinivasan have been gradually stepping back from Farcaster in recent months, shifting their attention toward building a wallet application based on the protocol after concluding that a social-first strategy had not delivered the desired results.
Founded in 2020 by former Coinbase executives Romero and Srinivasan, Merkle Manufactory raised $150 million in a Series A round in 2024, valuing Farcaster at $1 billion. However, the protocol generated just $1.84 million in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025, down 85% year over year.
The acquisition comes amid broader changes in the decentralized social media sector. Earlier this week, Lens, a rival social protocol created by Aave founder Stani Kulechov, transferred ownership to Mask Network, while Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin reaffirmed his commitment to supporting decentralized social platforms.

The bitcoin treasury firm backed by BTC Inc. CEO David Bailey has officially rebranded as Nakamoto Inc. (Nasdaq: NAKA).
Like many digital asset treasury firms, Nakamoto was formed through a corporate merger, in this case with healthcare operator KindlyMD. The healthcare business will continue operating as Kindly LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Nakamoto.
“By rebranding under the name Nakamoto, we are reinforcing the company’s role as a Bitcoin-focused firm built for the future,” said Bailey, who serves as chair and CEO. He added that the name change is intended to remove ambiguity around the firm’s objectives and underscore its commitment to Bitcoin’s long-term success.
Nakamoto emerged as one of the most talked-about bitcoin digital asset treasury firms in 2025, alongside other major accumulators such as Twenty One Capital. However, these firms remain far smaller than Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, with 709,715 BTC. MARA Holdings ranks second with more than 53,000 BTC, while Twenty One Capital is the third-largest corporate holder with roughly $4 billion in bitcoin.
The second-largest crypto-focused digital asset treasury, Bitmine, holds around $12 billion worth of ether along with some bitcoin.
Despite a challenging second half of 2025 for digital asset treasuries amid macro uncertainty and market shocks, cumulative holdings have rebounded since the start of the year.
Beyond direct bitcoin accumulation, Nakamoto has invested in Japan-based Metaplanet’s global equity offering and a Europe-based bitcoin treasury initiative. Bailey has previously said the firm aims to acquire 5% of bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply.
Shares of NAKA fell more than 7% on Wednesday to around $0.39, according to CNBC data. The stock previously hit an all-time high daily close of $25.03 on May 27, shortly after Bailey unveiled the bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Polymarket search interest hits record, signals brand dominance in prediction markets
Google search interest for “Polymarket” has surged to 100, its highest level on record, surpassing the prior peak of 99 seen during the November 2024 U.S. election, when the platform handled $3.700.000.000 in election-related volume.
The milestone comes despite the absence of a similarly high-profile event, suggesting Polymarket has moved beyond its image as an election-focused tool and established itself as core infrastructure for real-time information markets. Strong post-election user retention appears to be driving sustained brand interest.
In contrast, search volume for the generic term “prediction markets” fell to 40 in January, down 60% from December and well below its category peak. The widening gap between Polymarket’s rising brand searches and declining category searches mirrors Google’s early-2000s trajectory, when “Google it” became synonymous with web search itself.
Rival platform Kalshi recorded a January search volume of 77, higher than pre-election levels but down 23% month over month.
The data suggests Polymarket has captured definitional authority in the public mind. Users increasingly search directly for “Polymarket” rather than discovering the prediction market category first and comparing platforms later, reinforcing network effects and raising barriers to competitive displacement.
Notably, prediction markets surpassed $800.000.000 in trading volume on Sunday, an all-time high that puts the sector on pace to set a new monthly record.

F/m Investments seeks SEC approval to tokenize U.S. Treasury ETF
F/m Investments is seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to become the first firm to tokenize shares of an exchange-traded fund.
The company plans to tokenize its U.S. Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF (Nasdaq: TBIL) and record ownership on a permissioned blockchain ledger. F/m Investments said it believes this is the first time a firm has requested “SEC relief specifically for tokenized shares of a registered investment company.”
If approved, the existing TBIL ETF shares would be represented on a permissioned ledger under the same CUSIP, with identical rights, fees, voting rights and economic terms as the current shares, in compliance with the Investment Company Act of 1940.
CEO Alexander Morris said tokenization of traditional financial instruments is inevitable. The firm also emphasized that the structure would include board oversight, daily transparency, and third-party custody and auditing.
The move comes as lawmakers, regulators and financial industry leaders debate how tokenized securities should be regulated in the U.S. This week, the New York Stock Exchange said it is developing a platform for trading and onchain settlement of tokenized U.S. equities and ETFs, pending regulatory approval.

Tom Lee expects a positive year for crypto as real-world utility gains traction
Tom Lee, a long-time crypto bull and chairman of ethereum treasury firm Bitmine Immersion Technologies, believes the digital asset market is entering a promising phase as the practical value of blockchain technology becomes increasingly recognized.
In a recent interview on the Master Investor Podcast, Lee explained why crypto failed to meet bullish expectations in 2025. According to him, the market was actually outperforming traditional assets until Oct. 10, when a sharp downturn wiped out roughly $500 billion in market capitalization and triggered billions of dollars in liquidations.
Lee acknowledged that limited liquidity and a lack of sustained institutional support remain structural weaknesses in crypto markets and are likely to persist. Even so, he said he is sticking with his $250,000 price target for Bitcoin and expects BTC to set new highs this year.
Lee argued that the next leg higher will be driven primarily by growing awareness of crypto’s real-world usefulness. He noted that banks are increasingly embracing blockchain technology, particularly its strength in delivering settlement finality — an area where blockchain systems clearly outperform traditional infrastructure.
He also pointed to Tether as a concrete example of how blockchain is proving its value in finance. According to Lee, Tether operates a bank-like model that is far more efficient than traditional financial institutions. The company is expected to generate nearly $20 billion in earnings in 2026 with only around 300 full-time employees, compared with roughly 300,000 employees at JPMorgan.
In Lee’s view, the fact that a blockchain-native institution can achieve top-tier profitability with a relatively small balance sheet signals a much broader shift. Financial services, he said, may be steadily moving onchain, laying the foundation for a new growth cycle across the entire crypto ecosystem.

Lens Protocol hands over stewardship to Mask Network
Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave and Lens Protocol, announced that stewardship of Lens Protocol is being transferred to the Mask Network team, the builders behind Orb, as Lens shifts its focus toward deeper application-layer development.
In a post on X, Kulechov said the team spent years building some of the most important onchain financial primitives before expanding that vision to social primitives that users truly own. Lens Protocol and its underlying onchain rails — including advanced decentralized data storage for content governed by smart contracts — were designed to provide neutral social infrastructure that developers can rely on to build consumer-grade applications capable of reaching mainstream users.
According to Kulechov, the transition marks the next phase of Lens’ evolution, with Mask Network taking the lead in advancing the ecosystem at the application layer. He emphasized that Lens’ social primitives will remain fully open source and continue to serve as foundational infrastructure for anyone building decentralized social applications.
The original Lens team will remain involved as technical advisors, while refocusing their efforts on innovation in their core area of expertise: DeFi.

Bitcoin is facing mounting downside risk as technical weakness continues to dominate market structure, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt. In a widely shared post on X, Brandt said Bitcoin could trend toward the $58,000–$62,000 range, arguing that momentum has faded and recent price action lacks the strength needed to sustain a renewed uptrend.

Brandt’s view is rooted in chart behavior rather than conviction-driven forecasting. He emphasized that his projection is probabilistic, not certain, noting that failed rallies below the $100,000 area signal distribution rather than accumulation. Daily charts show Bitcoin trading within a modestly rising channel after a sharp selloff, with momentum indicators pointing to indecision and weakening follow-through.

The following day, Brandt moved away from precise price targets and instead highlighted broader structural risk. He pointed to a rising diagonal formation developing after the decline from recent highs, a pattern he considers unreliable and difficult to trade. According to Brandt, such structures often resolve with sharp moves that catch traders off guard, particularly when upside momentum is already deteriorating.

With resistance holding near $100,000 and multiple downside reference levels stacked through the $80,000 and $70,000 zones, Brandt sees the low-$60,000 area as a realistic outcome if the current pattern breaks lower. Overall, his analysis underscores a cautious outlook, warning that Bitcoin remains vulnerable to further downside unless market structure and momentum improve materially.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), the largest corporate holder of ether, has secured shareholder approval to increase the number of authorized shares, giving the company greater flexibility to raise capital in the future.
The move was approved under Proposal 2 at Bitmine’s annual shareholder meeting on Jan. 15, passing with 81% of votes cast in favor, the company said in a press release on Tuesday.
The approval does not mean new shares will be issued immediately. Instead, it raises the legal ceiling on how many shares the company can issue, enabling Bitmine to fund growth initiatives, pursue acquisitions, or support its ongoing ether accumulation strategy.
Shares of BMNR fell about 8% on Tuesday, tracking a sharp decline in ether’s price to just above $3,000.
Bitmine executives acknowledged that additional share issuance could dilute existing shareholders, but emphasized that the company would not sell equity below its market net asset value (mNAV), which reflects its substantial ETH holdings. Bitmine added 35,268 ETH to its balance sheet last week and is currently trading at around 0.86 times mNAV.
The company also disclosed that its digital asset holdings now total 4.203 million ether, representing roughly 3.5% of ether’s circulating supply, alongside 193 BTC and a $22 million stake in Eightco Holdings (ORBS).

Solayer has launched a $35 million ecosystem fund to support blockchain applications built on its infiniSVM network, with a focus on projects that require real-time execution and can generate sustainable revenue. The capital is provided by Solayer Labs and the Solayer Foundation.
The fund will back early- and growth-stage teams developing on infiniSVM, a layer-1 blockchain that is compatible with Solana’s tooling but engineered for faster execution and near-instant settlement. According to Solayer, the network has demonstrated throughput exceeding 330,000 transactions per second, with finality of around 400 milliseconds.
“We’re solving for real-time behavior, immediate and guaranteed settlement, and ultra-low latency,” said Joshua Sum, Solayer’s chief product officer, in an interview with CoinDesk. “Most blockchains still batch transactions, much like legacy financial systems. We want to replace that with true real-time clearing.”
Rather than emphasizing speculative narratives, Solayer said it will judge success by whether funded teams operate as durable, self-sustaining businesses. “Protocol revenue, projects that can stand on their own, and transaction volume — which proves they genuinely need the throughput our chain provides,” Sum said.
The fund will prioritize applications where speed and finality meaningfully expand what is possible onchain, including DeFi, payments, AI-driven systems, and tokenized real-world assets. Solayer added that projects such as tokenized U.S. Treasuries and AI-powered trading products are already under development.

Japan’s government bond market suffered a sudden shock on Tuesday, with the 30-year JGB yield surging more than 30 basis points to 3.91%, marking a sharp escalation after months of gradual pressure.
The move rippled quickly across global markets. Risk assets sold off, with Japan’s Nikkei falling 2.5% and U.S. equity futures pointing to losses of around 1.5%. Bitcoin, which had held above $95,000 for much of the previous week, slid below $91,000 in early U.S. trading. In contrast, precious metals continued to rally, with gold jumping 3% above $4,700 per ounce and silver surging 7.5% toward the $100 level.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, warned that the surge in long-dated Japanese bond yields signals the erosion of one of the world’s most reliable sources of cheap liquidity. For decades, Japan has anchored global carry trades and overseas investment flows, but rising yields are now pulling capital back home, draining liquidity from global markets.
Policy options for Japanese authorities appear limited. Attempts by the Bank of Japan to cap yields could shift selling pressure to the yen, while tighter monetary policy risks further losses in the bond market. Either path, Hansen argued, points to tighter global liquidity ahead.
While headlines remain dominated by geopolitical tensions and tariff threats from President Donald Trump, the turmoil in Japan’s bond market may be the more significant warning sign for crypto and equity markets as global financial conditions tighten.

Bitcoin may be approaching a potential breakout phase as on-chain data shows strong accumulation by large holders despite recent price volatility. According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated around $3.2 billion worth of Bitcoin over nine days, while small retail investors continued to sell.
This divergence between “smart money” buying and retail dumping is often seen as a constructive long-term signal. Although Bitcoin has faced short-term pressure from geopolitical risks, particularly renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump, large investors appear to be positioning for a longer-term upside.
At the same time, market sentiment remains cautious. Social media discussion around Bitcoin has surged, but indicators such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and the Altcoin Season Index suggest traders are still risk-averse and heavily focused on Bitcoin rather than altcoins.

Mastercard weighs strategic investment in Zerohash after acquisition talks fall through
Mastercard is evaluating a strategic investment in blockchain infrastructure firm Zerohash after acquisition discussions collapsed when the company chose to remain independent, according to people familiar with the matter.
Last October, reports said the payments giant was in late-stage talks to acquire Zerohash in a deal valued at up to $2 billion. Those talks have since ended, three sources said, though discussions around a potential investment are ongoing.
Zerohash confirmed it is not considering a sale, saying independence best positions the company to continue innovating and scaling commercial partnerships. Mastercard declined to comment.
Founded in 2017, Zerohash provides custody, settlement, and fiat on- and off-ramps that allow financial institutions and fintech firms to offer crypto, stablecoin, and tokenization services without building their own infrastructure. Its platform supports clients such as Interactive Brokers, Stripe, BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, Franklin Templeton, and DraftKings, reaching more than 5 million users across 190 countries.
In October last year, Zerohash raised $104 million in a Series D-2 round led by Interactive Brokers, valuing the company at $1 billion, with participation from Morgan Stanley, Apollo-managed funds, SoFi, Jump Crypto, and others.
The talks highlight renewed deal activity in the crypto sector, where established infrastructure providers with revenue and regulatory footing are increasingly seen as the most attractive targets.

Solana Mobile has officially begun distributing its long-anticipated SKR token, marking a significant milestone in the company’s strategy to tie crypto incentives directly to mobile hardware adoption.
The airdrop went live at 9:00 a.m. Vietnam time on Wednesday, forming part of a broader rollout designed to underpin the Seeker smartphone ecosystem. Seeker is Solana Mobile’s second-generation Web3 device platform and is positioned as a more refined and mature successor to its first Web3 phone, the Saga, following months of buildup.
SKR has a fixed total supply of 10 billion tokens, with allocations structured to support both users and long-term ecosystem growth.
Under the token distribution plan, 30% of the supply is allocated to airdrops, including the initial distribution to eligible Seeker users and developers. A further 25% is reserved for growth initiatives and strategic partnerships, while 10% is set aside to support liquidity and launch-related activities. Another 10% will be directed to a community treasury to fund future ecosystem proposals. The remaining supply is split between Solana Mobile, which receives 15%, and Solana Labs, which receives 10%.
Eligibility for the initial airdrop was determined through a snapshot of onchain activity linked to the Seeker device and its associated applications.
SKR is designed to play a central role in governance and staking within the ecosystem. Token holders can delegate SKR to help secure and scale the mobile platform, earn staking rewards, and participate in decision-making related to the Seeker ecosystem, including economic parameters and development initiatives.
To support early adoption, SKR operates under a linear inflation model. Inflation starts at 10% in the first year and then decreases by 25% annually until it reaches a terminal rate of 2%, at which point token issuance is expected to stabilize.

The June 26 Bitcoin options expiry shows a market that is not outright bearish, but increasingly focused on downside protection. With nearly $3.9 billion in open interest, puts outnumber calls, and a large share of protective positioning is concentrated between $75,000 and $85,000. This indicates deliberate hedging close to spot rather than deep tail-risk bets.
The options market is anchored around an at-the-money reference near $95,000, which traders appear to treat as the most neutral outcome for June. Implied volatility remains relatively low, signaling expectations of controlled price action, but downside insurance is priced at a clear premium, reflected in a negative volatility skew.
Overall, the structure suggests a market that continues to hold upside exposure above $120,000 while actively paying to defend against a defined downside range. Rather than panic, the options data points to structured risk management and a cautious stance into mid-year.

Chainlink has launched 24/5 onchain data streams for tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, extending its Data Streams technology to cover all trading sessions, including after-hours and overnight markets. The new service enables decentralized protocols to integrate equities more reliably onchain, narrowing the gap between traditional market hours and blockchain’s always-on model.

The move comes amid intensifying competition to offer round-the-clock access to stocks and commodities across both centralized and decentralized platforms. Chainlink’s solution is being adopted by several crypto-native venues, including Lighter, BitMEX, ApeX, and others.

Beyond pricing feeds, the 24/5 equities streams unlock new onchain use cases such as structured yield products, lending and prediction markets, and synthetic equities. Chainlink says this is only the first step, with broader 24/7 coverage planned in the future.

Ray Dalio warned at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the global monetary order is breaking down, as fiat currencies and sovereign debt are no longer trusted stores of value in the way they once were. He argued that geopolitical tensions have moved beyond trade wars into “capital wars,” where foreign nations are increasingly reluctant to hold U.S. debt, threatening the dominance of the U.S. dollar.

According to Dalio, this shift is already visible in markets, with gold outperforming tech stocks as central banks and sovereign entities accumulate hard assets to reduce counterparty risk. He noted that during periods of geopolitical conflict, even allies avoid holding each other’s debt, preferring hard currencies instead. The long-term consequence, Dalio warned, is currency debasement, as governments are forced to buy their own debt to sustain the system.

Crypto payment cards surge as Etherfi leads usage

Crypto-native payment cards are seeing rapid adoption, with daily transactions jumping 22x from December 2024 levels to nearly 60,000 by mid-January 2026. These cards automatically convert crypto holdings into fiat at the point of sale, allowing users to spend digital assets at traditional merchants without using centralized exchange offramping.

Daily volume processed through crypto cards has reached nearly $4 million. Etherfi currently dominates the sector, accounting for around half of all transactions, though competition remains strong from providers such as Gnosis, MetaMask, and Solayer.

Card issuers are still refining their business models, with wide variation in fees and incentives. Many cards boost appeal by offering DeFi-generated yields on balances, enabling users to earn returns while retaining spending flexibility. The reliance on Visa and Mastercard infrastructure highlights how traditional payment networks are becoming key bridges between decentralized finance and everyday commerce.