Observe the price behavior and trading methods of $BTC
From the daily chart, BTC shows a clear upward three-push pattern and a double-top test that cannot break 94000. The upward three-push pattern follows the same underlying logic as the Dow Theory's repeated attempts, all indicating a bearish outlook.
Currently, it is in a wide channel upward within a downtrend, which on a larger scale is a bear flag. Therefore, from the daily chart perspective, it is almost certain that BTC will return to 80000, and it may even break below the 80000 support and continue to decline.
However, the question arises: has this third push ended?
It can be observed that there is a significant entity gap between BTC's current price and a support level on the daily chart. This is not a price gap; if the third push declines from here, it indicates a very strong downward trend, even leading to a proportional drop from 107000 to 80000, ultimately landing at 67000, which corresponds to last year's large-scale fluctuation range.
My view is that I hope the price will rise again, supported by the current channel, to test around 100000. Thus, the rise caused by interest rate cuts would be a rebound resulting from the decline from 94000 to 87000, and the market will once again conduct a final push to entice, filling the gap while initiating a large-scale fluctuation range.
Of course, this is just a judgment. If the candlestick behavior breaks the support and tests the lower boundary of the channel again, it will be an opportunity to short.
Therefore, the derived operation is to
attempt to go long near 87000, with a 2000-point stop loss. If it breaks down here without hitting the stop loss, it is highly likely to give traders a chance to escape, which means testing the support near 87000 again. If it rises after support, the risk-reward ratio is extremely high.
The second scenario is that the market does not test 87000 and rebounds today, breaking through the pressure. In this case, the double-top test will be invalid, and short positions will be entered in batches between 97500 and 100000.
All of the above plans
