木木_Mu

$BTC Operation Plan Tracking - Short Position Profit

The previous article mentioned three ways to short + rebound for BTC, out of which two were accurately shorted, and with good luck.

The spot price of BTC first reached around 93090 to accurately short, with a drop of 3%, which is the first trend (completed).

When the price reaches 90200, going long to hedge against the short position with a take profit near 91000 is the third trend (completed).

This week's first order short at 86000 with a stop loss of 2000 points.
The second order long at 86000 with a stop loss of 5000 points, profit of 5%-6%.
The third order short at 93000 is currently profitable by 2000+ points, with a profit of 2.5%.
The fourth order long at 90200 is profitable by 800 points, closing with a profit of 0.9%.

All plans are made in advance. This is my trading strategy, and sharing it allows me to focus on my trading ideas while providing reference for those following.

Next, continue to hold the short position. If the short position can break even, it can also earn part of the hedged profit; otherwise, take profit at 83700.

Maintain a good mindset, keep the position small, be bold, avoid large losses, and the slope of the capital curve will naturally come.

BTC bears have settled their new home at 97000, will there definitely be a liquidation? $BTC

The reason I proposed shorting at 93000 is that the current rise is a weak upward trend in a broad channel, and the higher level is a downward trend. The breakout at the top of the broad channel is likely a false breakout. However, at the same time, we cannot say that BTC will definitely decline; nothing is absolute.

In a product like BTC, which primarily focuses on liquidation leverage movements within a range, it is possible for a short squeeze to occur. The liquidation range is referenced from the position at the time of opening. We do not know if the positions of those who opened orders in the range of 97000-98000 are still there. You mentioned that some people have already taken profits above 80000, which is possible. It's also possible that some people couldn't hold on to their profits during the rebound. However, there must be a group of bearish investors who continuously hold or even add to their positions, which creates the potential for prices to continue squeezing upwards before falling. Therefore, it’s important to define a trading plan in advance.

Thus, considering the current market's insufficient upward momentum for shorting, there is a second operational strategy:

1) Short at the pressure of 93000, with a stop loss at 95000, a 2000-point stop loss aiming for a low of 83000.

2) If the first order is stopped out, then at the liquidation range of 97500-98000 + daily MA30, reopen a short position, betting that this position is the peak of the consolidation range.

3) If neither of the first two situations occurs and BTC directly breaks below the support of 90700 to around 90000, the buying behavior of short covering will push the price back to test the pressure at 90700. I will open a short position here with a stop loss at the previous high.

The market changes dynamically every day, and the three operational strategies include both right-side and left-side approaches. I write articles to clarify my thoughts while focusing on trading. Controlling positions before trading and anticipating what will happen in the market will give you a sense of having been through the seas even if your position is hit.

The following image shows the small-scale methods and operational opportunities for the breakdown, with an uncertain occurrence time, above are all the plans.

#加密市场反弹

$BTC Operation Plan Follow-up — Looking for Short Opportunities, Target between 83000-84000

All long positions have been closed for profit, and there was no opportunity to reach 93000 last night, so no longer holding here. At this position, there are two types of anxious people.

The first type are those who are shorting based on 88000-90000, and so far, they have not been given any chance to exit, and there is even oscillation forming above (these traders are the most anxious).

The second type are those who opened long positions on the breakthrough of 90000. After they opened their longs, BTC has not risen for a long time and frequently returns to their cost price, which gives rise to two types of operational approaches.

1) Still hanging short orders at 93000. It can be seen that in the short term, BTC has formed an oscillation range of 1000+ points above 90000, and those who opened shorts within a week without stopping loss have their liquidation positions distributed between 92000-93000 based on the liquidation map. Therefore, still placing a left-side order at 93000. If the price breaks upward and quickly retreats, short sellers stop loss, and long positions return to cost price, forcing them to sell will lead to a further price drop and thus a reversal.

2) BTC no longer has the strength to clear out shorts; the trend has currently reversed. So, we need to wait for a signal to enter right-side orders, which means when BTC falls back to test the upper edge of the upward wide channel, it is the timing for shorting.

Not considering long positions, the bulls will all die.

#加密市场反弹

$BTC Operation Plan——1127 Bull Reversal? Short!

Above 91000, take profit at 90% of the position, leave 10% of the position to see if it gives a level near 93000, remain in the market.

The reason I originally planned to take profit halfway above 90,000 is that this is the top of a wide channel. I expect a false breakout here. You can see that my opening price is the price after increasing the position. If it is a slow rise in a narrow channel, I may stay up all night watching the market and increase my position with each K-line, but last night's large bullish candle made me feel dangerous. However, such a strong bullish candle breaking 90000 again appears in the consolidation zone makes me feel this is a trap (although the top of the consolidation zone has not yet been defined, the probability of a direct V reversal is very low), so I took profit at 70% above 90000, leaving only 10% of the position above 91000. At that time, the long position has already made a profit of about 5000 points, and the next step is the short plan.

You can see that the market's wide channel trend is consistent with my previous prediction, and the retail sentiment towards the bull reversal has no deviation + the wide channel rising and the false breakout in the consolidation zone meet the conditions for going short. The target for the short position is around 83000, the starting point of the wide channel. In the profit range of 10000 points, I hope to use a small position with a stop loss of around 2000 points, which means shorting at 93000-94000, using 70% of the usual position, with a stop loss of 2500 points, looking down at the area above 83000.

Psychologically speaking, there are many bears relying on 90000 to short, and they are currently in a state of anxiety being trapped. If BTC makes another push to 93000-94000 in the evening, it will break part of the bears' psychological defense line, causing them to close positions and stop losses + retail chasing longs. If a crash occurs and the price reaches near 90000, then most of the bears who were previously trapped and did not stop loss will think this is a pullback and may even close positions, leading to further price declines.

Operation Plan

1) So the plan remains unchanged, relying on the 93000-94000 suppression zone to short, with a stop loss at 95500, and the bear target above 83000.

2) If it breaks and gets stopped out here, I will not chase longs. The next shorting range is at 98000-100000, which is a low probability reaching position. I do not believe the consolidation zone will be as wide as 20000 points, but if thought differently, entering a short position here and then reaching the previous low of 82000 will also recover the stop loss money, so there is no need to worry.

3) If the short position cannot be entered, I will not enter at market price. I will wait for it to move a bit before re-entering the short.

All plans above.

#加密市场反弹

Long position profit of 4000 points reduced by 70% with a position of $BTC

Last night at 0:00, I increased my position with a bullish candle, initially planning to add position incrementally, but it directly hit the take profit

The remaining 30% position will continue to hold with a break-even point; it is now time to be cautious and consider reversing to short. The bullish candle has broken out, retail investors are optimistic, while false breakouts in the consolidation zone will lead to alternating bullish and bearish trends for retail investors. Since the bullish candle has broken through 90000, there is a possibility of continuing to push towards 93000 as planned. I will wait for the day session to unfold, and continue to observe the trading plan tonight

$BTC Operation Plan --1126, continue to hold long positions with a target at 93000

Protective stop-loss set below the previous one-hour low at 95000

From the liquidation map, BTC has a significant liquidation potential up to 93000 and down to 81000, while long-term shorts have a liquidation at 98000. In the short term, it is unlikely to reach that high, and even the probability of the high point in the fluctuation range reaching 98000 is low. Therefore, around 93000 becomes a potential pinning position for bulls. BTC remains in a bullish trend on a smaller scale. If there is a desire to show a fluctuation range here, the range between 80000-90000 is relatively small. If a rebound trend caused by short profit-taking is ultimately ignited by the main force to rush to 93000 to liquidate shorts, and retail investors shout bullish but then experience a sharp drop, the fluctuation range is likely to be established. Therefore, the plan continues to be executed, and the profit-taking position is at 93000.

1) Take profit half at the top of the wide channel for long positions, take full profit at 93000. After successfully taking profit for long positions, go short between 93000-94000, aiming to at least capture the low point of the fluctuation range around 82000.

2) If the channel here confirms a breakout without hitting the stop-loss, close the short position, using the breakout of the large bearish line as the stop-loss and entering shorts on the right side, with profit-taking at the starting point of the channel above 83000.

3) The next position to go long is near 82000, which is the support from the previous pattern.

Above, all plans recorded.

#加密市场反弹

$BTC Multiple orders received with a floating profit of 1000+

Take profit all above 90000 and then open a short position

Here we still see a fluctuating upward trend within the range, and we cannot expect a sustained market trend. Traders who chase long positions at this level are likely to be stopped out, as the fluctuating range is all false breakouts.

The plan remains unchanged.

$BTC Operation Plan——1125/Low Long

1) Reassess the rebound of BTC 80000 - 89000, which is actually not strong. The current narrow channel of the rebound has evolved into a wide channel, and this is a sign of a weakening trend at the current hourly level. If the trend of the wide channel continues, it will give traders the opportunity to go long at the low end and short at the high end of the channel. If the high point continues to rise, it may reach a formation resistance between 93000-94000.

2) If the wide channel is directly broken down, the BTC price will further drop, and the next point to go long is around 82000. Here, going long is also a must, but because the range is large, the position size should be reduced, and after confirming the bottom, additional positions can be added.

So it can evolve into two operational modes:

First Operation

Enter BTC long position around 86400. If the time progresses, the support points below will keep moving up, and traders should buy according to the trend line. Set the stop loss at the one-hour low of 85200; if worried about being stopped out, it can be placed at 85000.

The first target for the long position is around 90000. At that time, take profit and consider going short. For now, I will update according to the trend.

Second Operation

If the first BTC operation gets stopped out, then go long at a lower position around 82000. This is a support level of previous high trading volume, thus it also serves as support.

End

$BTC Next Step Trading Plan——1125

Last night's 2:1 profit-loss ratio order was stopped out

Here, I would like to take this opportunity to discuss the fundamentals of stable profitability in the trading market, mainly based on mathematical expectation. Suppose a person's trading style is relatively conservative, always entering long positions after seeing a breakout of a large bullish candle or short positions after a bearish candle breaks. Such right-side orders come with reduced profit potential, mostly at a 1:1 profit-loss ratio. If a trader primarily focuses on 1:1 profit-loss ratio orders + maintains a consistent position size for each trade, then as long as their win rate exceeds 50%, they can achieve stable profitability.

If a trader's main style focuses on 2:1 profit-loss ratio orders, then as long as their win rate exceeds 40%, they can achieve long-term stable profitability.

Based on the above, every time your win rate increases by 1%, it will make your profit curve steeper, meaning you earn more. This is what top traders can achieve, and I am currently in the process of improving my win rate. According to this mathematical expectation, if someone claims their left-side win rate is at 70%, you just need to realize how absurd it is. Left-side orders represent trading against the trend; the advantage is a very good profit-loss ratio, but the disadvantage is a very low win rate. This is how logical thinking can help discern whether what someone says is truthful or deceptive.

Therefore, win rate is core, but not the only factor. What is important is to maintain the same position size and control the profit-loss ratio most of the time + maintain a stable mindset.

For BTC, it is currently in a consolidation range, and the first low and high points of this range are very important. If there is no second low point retest and it breaks instead, I will re-enter short positions from the top to define the high point, taking short-term longs and waiting for the day session to unfold before considering entry points.

Taking advantage of the rebound, I have already converted all spot holdings into BTC; I'm done with the dog coins.

Done

$BTC Place Order – Betting on Short Position

This order is entered at the current price around 86000. From the daily chart, BTC is currently in a rebound after a previous decline. However, from a smaller timeframe perspective, the strength of this rebound is insufficient to form an effective breakthrough, with RSI divergence. This order has a loss of 2000 points, and the take profit is near the previous low support at 82000. When BTC reaches around 84000, take partial profit to speculate on a short-term trading range of 88000-82000 for one hour. The reason I say this is that I believe if the main force is oscillating at this position, the high point won't just be close to 88000. Therefore, if a long position is received, it will hold the pattern. When it reaches the support at 82000, take profit on the short position and enter a long position, relying on the oscillation range for buying low and selling high.

If this short position incurs a loss, then observe the upward breakout strength of BTC. The second point for shorting is in the range of 93000-94000. The advantage of trading within the oscillation range is that even if you incur losses on the previous two orders, a successful short position at the top can recover the profits from the first two orders to reach the previous low. Be a bit bolder, but keep the position small.

Done!

In such a market, how many people will die?

The current market's $BTC open interest has already exceeded BTC125000 fomo
Shorts keep adding positions while longs are unwilling to give up
From a technical perspective, the market will inevitably experience a certain amount of short covering and profit-taking rebound
But this has yet to happen
As for altcoins, I believe the market will give me the opportunity to unfreeze my coins
Apt has broken my 2.6 bottom-buying price, to be honest, I don't really want to hold on, I'll wait a bit longer

In the current BTC fundamentals, a 3000-point spike without any rebound is the end of the line for contract traders
Especially for those who enter long positions on the left side
How many KOLs secretly mourn their own liquidation

My long position is waiting for a long signal k after a stop loss at 94000, long signal k? There is simply no long signal k

What I clearly know is that entering long on the left side is extremely likely to result in death
The solution is to bottom-buy BTC in the spot market, I might switch to BTC

87000-76000 is the chip area where the main force accumulated earlier
I bet it cannot break below and will give me an opportunity to unfreeze
The reason is the short profit-taking rebound in the earlier high turnover area

From 124000 to short at 100000, I can't make money below that

This week the company is busy, haven't traded much, it's hard to say whether it's a blessing or a curse
I'll come back next week to reclaim everything that belongs to me

If $BTC forms a double bottom structure or a higher bottom structure in the short term
Then the highest rebound here will be in the range of 98000-10000
This range is currently the largest liquidation area for bears and can be said to be a high probability testing position

A rebound like this indicates that the market is about to experience another fluctuation of more than 10000 points up and down

It is just a rebound; the market will not directly reverse in a V shape

At the same time, observe the spot premium. When the market first broke below 90000, the spot premium reached a very high position

The range of 87000-76000 is the previous concentrated trading area for accumulation, which will have strong structural support

I believe the market will at least test the MA30 position on the daily line, which is currently near 100000


Then look for opportunities to go long again, not to act foolishly

Waiting for signal k..

$BTC The daily structure has already pushed three times from 104000 to the present, showing signs of a selling climax. If November 4 is the selling climax of this segment, the market will fall into a consolidation.

The daily MA30 is at 105000; it is unlikely to reach this level in the short term, but due to the high deviation between the candlestick and MA30, the market will use two methods for correction.

1) Consolidate within the current price range for a time-based correction, which may lead to new lows. Opportunities should wait for the market to define highs and lows before trading in the consolidation.

2) Actively rise to correct the deviation, returning to the mean. Continue to hold altcoins, and do not open new long positions at the current price.

Regardless, I believe the current position is already in the market's consolidation range. Looking lower is not within my understanding, so I will only consider low longs and holding altcoins.

From my position you can feel the strength of
$APT

I even sold it once to balance the position for my partner to keep it at 50%

Now it is again far ahead

Two key points
1) Not dropping
2) Strong rally

My cost is 2.6

《Not an advertisement》

The trend line at the weekly level of $BTC is my last line of defense.

I have partially closed my long position on BTC and placed the stop loss below 95000.

I would rather take a little less profit and wait for the rise to chase again, because there are still altcoins.

I am still fully invested in altcoins, and I have partially switched to AAVE; the current altcoins are already near the cost price at which I initially bought.

Today and over the weekend, I need to pay attention to whether the weekly level support is broken on the daily chart.

In the short term, we need to see if 98000 can be reclaimed, which is extremely critical.

If the trend line is broken, I haven't decided whether to sell the spot; at this price level, I am actually not afraid of being trapped, but I don't really want to be trapped.

If the long position stop loss triggers, this week will be a waste.

Take profit on one order for 2000+ points at half position, take profit on another order for 4000+ points at half position, and lost on one order due to stop loss.

If I hadn't taken profit at 103000 yesterday and waited to buy back, I would already be in a loss this week.

The reason I’m not shorting is that I missed out on significant profits in large ranges twice before because I wanted a small profit of a few thousand points.

It feels like dead memories are attacking me.

Continuing to watch tonight's trend.

$BTC This dog dealer is really hard to manage this time.

I've already been cleaned up thoroughly, any more washing will cause bleeding.
The counterfeit spot experienced a brief loss and has come back.

I will set a stop loss for the BTC position at 95500, because it's a long-term buy position, only using 2% of the contract margin.

The newly opened long position in the short term was once again robbed at 96000+, and BTC has already tested the weekly trend line, meanwhile I am fully invested in spot, just now I saw SOL was not pleasing to the eye, so I took advantage of the drop to switch to WIF.

If BTC confirms it has broken the weekly trend line, then I will have to endure a period of suffering again, just waiting for it to move, this drop looks more like panic selling.

Can we reach the other side?

《All In》

Originally, this account held half in spot, while the other account held 30% in blue platform tokens, with the remaining 20% fully invested. The wide channel of $BTC has been breached, and so far we need to see if it can form a double bottom at 98000 and then break back into the channel. The market has reached a state of extreme fear, and the liquidation map below has become a vacuum zone. I believe this is the final bottom, and one point is that even if I am wrong about the spot price here, if this is not the bottom, I will not be trapped. Technically, it looks bullish; the market has reached extreme fear. If I don't buy the dip now, when will I?

Current position: 2% long position in BTC. I made a small T last night, and the average price after my adjustment reached 99500. The actual average price should be around 101000 with a 100x contract position; the long position remains unchanged. Yesterday, I suggested adding to the position at 100300 and moving the stop loss down.

Continue to hold spot.

I can feel the market's fear. If I hadn't closed 50% of my contracts for the T yesterday, I would also be stopped out now. I see the opportunity for shorts, but the reason I am not shorting is that I believe the downtrend has ended. My system does not allow me to short; I want to seize the big long opportunity, not a small short one.

Investing is not easy; it feels like walking on thin ice. I, like you, am a retail investor, and I hope I am right.

Last chance to recharge faith! Continue to take counterfeit spot, $BTC take more, target 110,000

1) If you are unsure whether a period of consolidation will break upwards or downwards, use the simplest method to judge whether the main force is unloading or buying based on the average rise and fall of K-line. The first chart shows the current consolidation range of BTC at the 4-hour level. If the main force is buying, they will not allow the K-line to break the support, and the rebound will be extremely strong, this is the first point.

2) The daily level is about to form a double bottom structure, I won't post the chart.

3) At the 4-hour level, the wide channel is decreasing. I will use the trend of a random coin I found to tell you why 70% of wide channels will be broken in the opposite direction. You don't need to know what this coin is because the trends are all the same; this is experience. In price behavior, many things are based on experience. If you have to find a reason, it is that if the downward force is strong enough, your opponent will not make money. If they can make money, consider whether this trend is about to end. Of course, the last drop may have a large false breakout range, so for long positions, be a bit bolder, keep the position small, and set the stop loss far.

One more thing, last night I dreamed that I stopped loss, but people say dreams are the opposite, so I will take profit 🙂

BTC contract long position at 100300 add position. If there is no opportunity and it breaks upwards, then take the opportunity to add long position.

The outcome is still uncertain.

Place orders, sleep.

#山寨爆发

The downtrend has ended, and the current decline is the real reverse dead cat bounce
$BTC 100000 buy target above 110000

First, let's update the latest operation, the long position at 112000 has temporarily taken profit on half, betting that if BTC declines to 100000 tonight, I will move the stop loss down. The long position at 112000 has already taken profit on half at 116000, currently at 102800 still in a small profit state. Here I will slightly mitigate risk by reducing positions but I will not close all positions. The volatility is about to end, and I basically mention this in every article. I do not want to miss large bullish opportunities for small bearish profits.

1) The current 4-hour level shows a wide channel downtrend, and the wide channel downtrend indicates insufficient bearish momentum for a bullish pattern. In 75% of the time, the wide channel will be broken in the opposite direction, while the current wide channel downtrend has only made two pushes down. Most wide channel downtrends will make three pushes before reversing. Also, around 100000, there is a gathering of bullish liquidity waiting for liquidation, which also creates opportunities for panic selling. Therefore, I choose to add positions again at 100000. If BTC directly breaks through, I will chase the long position.

2) Currently, I have fully invested in altcoins, so the position of spot + futures is quite large for me. If your position is small, you may choose not to take profit on half positions but instead add positions at 100000 and move the stop loss down. I believe that when the current downtrend wide channel is broken, it will be the starting point for this round of upward movement, whether it breaks directly at the current 103000 or retraces and breaks at around 100000.

3) Those who do not hold BTC long positions can place orders to go long at 100000 to bet on the reversal.

Reasons for the end of the downtrend

Currently, it can be seen that the daily level has formed a double bottom structure, and the 4-hour wide channel downtrend is bullish, so I have 80% confidence in being bullish here. Large-scale double bottom, small-scale bullish, and the panic index is extremely low. This is an opportunity at the daily level and also the last opportunity of this bull market.

Why am I not going long on ETH?
I am already fully invested in altcoins, what could be better than this for ETH?

End ✅

In the last 24 hours, long positions have liquidated 430 million, and short positions have liquidated 130 million

$BTC I begin to suspect that some people shout 'short' while secretly holding long positions to the maximum extent...

Continue to hold long positions; if our cost basis weren't advantageous, we would also be a part of the liquidation stop-loss. I come to recharge my faith; this trade will either yield significant results or result in a stop-loss. The current average price is 102800.

Because if it falls below 100000, Bitcoin will have to traverse the vacuum area below to reach the next major area for accumulation. I will publish further articles on this, and after that, I will shift my thinking to a range-bound market.

As of now, the outcome is still undecided.