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250428 - Bitcoin Market Analysis (2)
 
Bitcoin is continuing to rise!
In the early hours of today, I mentioned that the 92000 level would be a temporary support point for Bitcoin.
 
After that, Bitcoin fell to a low of 92800, and then started to rise again!
If Bitcoin can successfully break through the previous high (95800), and even the 0.618 resistance level (96200), then we can boldly predict that Bitcoin will once again challenge 0.786, which is 102000!
 
Currently, Bitcoin is very close to the previous high, and we need to closely monitor whether Bitcoin can effectively break through.
 
If it can successfully stand above the previous high and break through with volume, then it will be an opportunity to go long.$BTC

250428 - Bitcoin Market Analysis

First, let's state the conclusion: it is not advisable to short at this time.

Since about half a month ago, as the U.S. stock market gradually warmed up, I keenly sensed that the Bitcoin market was reversing.

So for the past half month, I've either not recommended opening positions, or if opening positions, it has been primarily bullish. After consolidating for a week, Bitcoin has experienced explosive growth.

The highest point was almost touching the resistance level of 0.618 (96,200).

Currently, there has been a brief pullback, but there has been no significant drop in volume compared to the large trading volume during the rise. Therefore, despite the current pullback, there is no need to rush to short.

Furthermore, from the Fibonacci sequence, we can see that after the surge, Bitcoin has tested the 0.5 support level (92,000) twice during pullbacks, but has not successfully broken below it. Thus, the 92,000 level can serve as a temporary support level. If Bitcoin approaches around 92,000, we can observe and consider going long.

If it clearly breaks below 92,000 with increased volume, a deeper pullback may follow, and it would be wise to consider short-term stop-loss and wait for a pullback to around 0.382 (approximately 87,900) before looking for opportunities. $BTC #BTC走势分析

250416 - Bitcoin Market Analysis

Yesterday I mentioned that if Bitcoin fails to break through 86100, it may retrace to the range of 82000~83500.
We can see that Bitcoin today, after a false break of 86100, retraced to a low of 83100.

Some friends may have thought that when Bitcoin spiked up to 86100, it was a "breakthrough," a strong signal, and eagerly jumped in to buy. As a result, the newly entered long positions were quickly trapped by a rapid drop.

This is actually a typical "false breakout" trap, which is a common mistake made by many retail investors.

So today I want to emphasize a key point: what is a true breakthrough resistance level?
A true breakout not only involves a price that momentarily spikes past the resistance level, but it also needs to meet the following criteria:
1. Volume breakout: A true breakout is usually accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume. If there is no increase in volume, it is mostly a trap for buyers.
2. Effectively closing above the resistance level: In my view, after a price breakout, it should at least close above that level with more than two one-hour candlesticks.
3. Retracement to confirm support: The most robust breakout occurs when the price breaks through resistance and then successfully retraces to the original resistance (which becomes support) and holds steady; this indicates a true breakout 80% to 90% of the time. (As shown in Figure 2)
So when you are making breakout trades, remember the three principles above, and your success rate can increase significantly!
Returning to today's market analysis, the direction today is actually uncertain, still consolidating in the support and resistance range of 82800~86100, so there’s not much to say. We should wait for the market to break down or break through, then we can make higher probability trades.
In unclear market conditions, staying out of the market is the best choice~

$BTC

250415 - Bitcoin Market Analysis
 
Bitcoin's market is bullish today.
 
We can see that Bitcoin has been rising in a step-by-step manner in the past week.
 
And it has risen above the parallel resistance level of 85200 again. If this rise can successfully break through the previous high of 86100, it will be another strong signal. Next, it can rise to 88000 (0.382 position).
 
But if it still cannot break through this time, Bitcoin may fall back to the lower position again for a short time (82000~83500).
 
So at present, we have to focus on the trend of Bitcoin around 86100.
 
My order opening plan: if it successfully stands on 86100, go long; if it fails to break through 86100, go short.

240414 - Bitcoin Market Analysis

First, the conclusion: Bitcoin's trend is showing reversal signals.
We can see that this wave of Bitcoin has risen from the lowest point of 74500 to the highest point of 86100, having briefly broken through 85200 to reach the highest of 86100 before facing resistance and pulling back.
Currently, it is consolidating in the range of 82800~85200 (as shown in the figure).

If Bitcoin can once again rise above 85200, then in the next phase, I will be bullish up to 87900, which is near the 0.382 resistance level.

However, if it cannot break through 85200 again, then 86100 may become a temporary high point. Bitcoin may once again test the support levels below (which are 82000 and 80000).
$BTC

250412- Bitcoin Market Analysis

Bitcoin has once again broken through the previous high of 84300, reaching a maximum of 84300.

Friends who have been following me know that I still believed the market was bearish yesterday.

However, after Bitcoin broke through the resistance level of 82800, I began to realize that the market seems to be reversing from a bearish trend to a bullish trend.

So today is the first time in a long while that I am bullish, and I shared my bullish perspective with everyone this morning at the first opportunity.

I also opened one of the few long positions after breaking through the resistance level.
$BTC

250412- Bitcoin Market Analysis

Bitcoin seems to be reversing the trend.

As shown in the diagram, unlike the previous false breakouts, this time Bitcoin has stayed above the Fibonacci 0.236 resistance level and the downward trend line for 12 consecutive hours, and has made a pullback.

Such a candlestick structure indicates that Bitcoin may further rise.

In addition, recent trading volume has surged, with buying power greater than selling power, and increased volume alongside rising prices is also a bullish signal.

Currently, I have a light long position, with a stop loss at 81000, and the first take profit level is at 85000.

$BTC
#BTC走势分析

250411 - Bitcoin Market Analysis (2)

Bitcoin seems to have failed to break through the downtrend line again?
As we can see, Bitcoin once again slightly rose above the downtrend line.
But it did not completely stand on it and fell back.
This can be regarded as a false breakthrough of the downtrend line.
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through the downtrend line, indicating that the downtrend line has a very strong suppression on the rise of Bitcoin.
My idea is to try to short with a light position near the downtrend line. Because this is a trading method with a relatively high profit and loss.
Once the downtrend line is broken, we can stop loss immediately and observe the market.
But if the downtrend line cannot be broken, then Bitcoin will definitely continue to fall.
In addition, the Sino-US tariff war is still escalating, which is also bearish. Today, China continues to increase tariffs on US imports to 125%. Whether the US will continue to increase tariffs on China is unknown.
So you can try to short near the downtrend line, but remember to set a stop loss. My stop loss is placed slightly above the resistance level of 83500 (83700-83900)
$BTC $BTC
#加密市场反弹 #BTC走势分析

250410 - Bitcoin Market Analysis

Let’s start with the conclusion: Bitcoin surged significantly today, but this is not a good point to chase the rise.

We can analyze the current Bitcoin market from two perspectives:

1. Tariff Perspective
After Trump announced a 10% tariff policy for over 75 countries for 90 days, the U.S. stock market experienced a broad rally, which also brought a nice rebound to the crypto market. However, this does not mean that the rebound will last for a long time.
Firstly, the trade war between the leaders, the U.S. and China, is still escalating, and the escalation of the trade war is obviously a negative factor for both the U.S. stock market and the crypto financial market.
Secondly, Trump is not imposing a 10% tariff on so many countries for a long time; this 90-day 10% tariff policy for over 75 countries is just a delaying tactic due to pressure from China.
Therefore, this should not be seen as a complete and long-term positive signal.

2. K-line Perspective
As shown in the chart, we can see that Bitcoin has currently risen above the 81200 resistance level.
However, it faced resistance and fell back near the Fibonacci trend line, and has further retraced to the 0.236 resistance level.

Thus, after digesting the positive news from the policy, Bitcoin reached near the resistance level but has shown weakness afterward.
Now, we need to observe Bitcoin’s movements in the range above the support level of 81200 and below the resistance level of 83500.
If Bitcoin falls below 81200 again, it can be seen as a continuation of the downward trend after digesting the positive effects of the policy.
If Bitcoin can break above the Fibonacci trend line resistance level, it may experience a stronger rebound.
However, it is certain that chasing the rise at this moment carries significant risks and has low profit potential.

My trading thoughts for today:
If Bitcoin falls below 81200, go short, stop loss at 83600.
If Bitcoin rises above 83500, take short-term long positions, stop loss at 81000.
$BTC


#特朗普暂停新关税 #加密市场反弹 #美国加征关税 #BTC走势分析

250409

Following the United States' announcement of an additional 50% tariff on China, China has also announced an additional 50% tariff on the United States.

Both China and the United States are standing firm.

The escalation of the trade war is clearly negative for the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market.

I remain bearish on Bitcoin in the short term, and those trading long positions should exercise caution and set stop losses, focusing primarily on shorting after a rebound.

$BTC

250409 - Bitcoin Market Analysis

First, the conclusion: Bitcoin $BTC is still in a bearish trend today.

Today, Trump has once again imposed a 50% tariff on China, which is another negative signal for the US stock market.
At the same time, considering the correlation between the US stock market and Bitcoin, Trump's tax policy is also a short-term negative for Bitcoin (those who cannot clarify this logic can refer to my article "The China-US Tariff War Will Long-Term Affect Bitcoin Trends")

Combining this news, let’s take a look at today’s Bitcoin candlestick chart. As shown in the figure:
Bitcoin has once again dropped to the previous low near 84500. Currently, there is a certain rebound.

However, note: from the trading volume, this rebound is a shrinking rebound. Volume increases during the decline, and decreases during the rebound, which is a typical bearish structure!

Bitcoin is still in a noticeable downtrend, with each rebound high gradually decreasing and repeatedly setting new lows.

Yesterday I mentioned that if Bitcoin could break above the resistance level of 81200, it might usher in a stronger rebound. However, it is evident that after failing to break this resistance level, Bitcoin is getting further away from 81200.

Moreover, the lowest point of Bitcoin's current trend is just a step away from the Fibonacci 0.382 support level (around 73500); I speculate that Bitcoin is likely to drop again to take out this position.

Therefore, my trading strategy today remains primarily short:
Short below the resistance level 79000~81200, stop loss at 82500, take profit at 75500.

Light position long near the support level 73500. Stop loss at 72000.
$BTC
#美国加征关税 #BTC

250409- Bitcoin and Ethereum Plunge Again

Yesterday, I mentioned twice the risk of Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing two dips.

As expected, today Ethereum has dropped to a lower level. Bitcoin has also fallen near its previous low (74500).

I also pointed out yesterday that, from the candlestick pattern perspective, Ethereum is weaker compared to Bitcoin.

Today's movement has confirmed my view: Ethereum has broken below its previous low while Bitcoin has only dropped near its previous low.

Next, we need to closely monitor whether the market will continue to decline.

Going long can only capture short-term rebound trends. A significant reversal has not formed, so don’t rush to heavily invest in long positions to catch the bottom.

Later, I will share today's trading opportunities.

Follow me for daily analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum's market trends.
$BTC $ETH

250408

Current signs indicate that the breakthrough resistance levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum are both showing weakness.

For those looking to go long, please make sure to set stop-losses to guard against a second dip in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Bitcoin needs to break above 81,200 to confirm that the rebound can continue further. If it cannot surpass this resistance level, then it is very likely to fall back again.

As for Ethereum... I believe that those going long on Ethereum right now are more like gambling, hoping that Ethereum can suddenly strengthen.
Currently, Ethereum is much weaker than Bitcoin, even weaker than Sol. The exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin is steadily declining, and the rebound strength is weak.

I have already taken profits on my Ethereum long position and am preparing to observe further.

$BTC $ETH

250408 - Bitcoin $BTC Market Analysis

Today we analyze the current changes in the Bitcoin market from the perspective of the China-U.S. trade war.

It is well known that Bitcoin's movements are strongly correlated with the U.S. stock market: when U.S. stocks rise, Bitcoin usually strengthens; conversely, when U.S. stocks fall, Bitcoin often struggles to remain unaffected.

As seen recently, the U.S. stock market has experienced significant declines, mainly due to the escalation of the China-U.S. trade war, causing global market turbulence.

On April 4, China announced a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the U.S. (as shown in Figure 1), which is a strong response to previous U.S. tariff measures. This move quickly triggered market panic, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks, with multiple major indices falling collectively.

In recent years, Bitcoin has shown a high positive correlation with the U.S. stock market. In the context of a U.S. stock market crash, Bitcoin naturally struggles to maintain a strong market on its own, resulting in a substantial decline.

Currently, it appears that the trade war is far from over.

U.S. President Trump has openly stated that if China does not cancel the 34% tariff on the U.S. before April 8, the U.S. will further escalate on April 9, imposing new tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese goods.

This “tit for tat” situation suggests that the trade war may continue to escalate. What impact will this have on U.S. stocks and Bitcoin?

I believe the U.S. stock market is likely to enter a period of turbulent decline, especially in manufacturing and technology stocks, for three reasons:

- Decreased corporate profit expectations: Increased costs + market uncertainty put pressure on both corporate investment and profits;
- Decreased consumer confidence: Tariffs raise end-product prices, weakening the purchasing power of the American public;
- Increased market risk aversion: Investors are more inclined to sell risk assets and turn to safe havens like gold and bonds.

Given the strong correlation between the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin, it is likely that Bitcoin will also weaken due to the drag from U.S. stocks.

In summary, if the trade war between China and the U.S. continues, it will be a persistent negative for Bitcoin.
Considering Bitcoin $BTC 's current turbulent decline, it is advisable to align with the market and the situation, focusing on short-selling.
#美国加征关税

250407 - Ethereum $ETH Market Analysis
 
Ethereum has fallen more than 10 points today, which may present a phase-based buying opportunity!
In recent months, Ethereum has shown a phenomenon of 'dropping double, rising half' compared to Bitcoin. The exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin has also plummeted, now only at 0.02.
It can be said that the Ethereum cryptocurrency has reached a point of significant decline. Therefore, in the past, I have never recommended opening long positions in Ethereum.
 
However, I believe that Ethereum has now reached a phase-based bottom.
From the attached chart, we can see that Ethereum has now approached an important support level near 0.786. I believe it is unlikely to continue falling much more in the short term. The reasons are as follows:
 
1. We can see that from 2022 to 2023, the range from 0.786 to 0.618 (i.e., 1578~2120) has always been a trading concentration area for Ethereum.

2. ETH has fallen from a high (around 4,000) to the 0.786 retracement level, technically considered 'oversold'.

3. Currently, Bitcoin has also approached a support level; if Bitcoin stops falling and rebounds, ETH is likely to rebound as well. (As shown in the chart)

Therefore, I believe that the current price range of Ethereum (1550~1580) is a good area to establish some long positions. Currently, I have established long positions in both Ethereum and Bitcoin.

Of course, nothing is absolute. If the price of Ethereum $ETH still needs to further decline, then the next major support level would be 900. The probability of this is not high, but those who go long should still set a stop-loss (1450~1500).

The market changes rapidly; no matter how much you trust your own or others' analysis, you should always leave an exit route!

250407 Bitcoin $BTC Market

Bitcoin has finally encountered a big bearish candle.
Previously, I had been telling everyone for several days that the Bitcoin market was bearish and warned that going long should be done with caution.

We can see that when $BTC has been unable to break through the resistance level for a long time, a significant drop is very likely to occur.
Friends who follow me should have either made a profit by shorting or at least not incurred any losses~

250406 - Bitcoin $BTC Market Analysis
 
Today's Bitcoin Market: Bearish
Bitcoin is still consolidating near the downtrend line.
However, when we draw the Fibonacci sequence, we can clearly see:
Yesterday, Bitcoin was resisted and fell when it rose to the 0.236 weak resistance level. This is a bearish signal.
 
But is it really that bearish right now? Not necessarily. Because the U.S. stock market has recently plummeted, but Bitcoin's decline has been minimal. This seems to be somewhat of a slightly strong signal.
 
However, until Bitcoin truly breaks below the downtrend line, overall market conditions, in my opinion, remain bearish.
My trading strategy will still primarily focus on shorting.
 
Today's preset entry point for my $BTC :
Short: Entry range 83600~84300,
Take profit: 81300~81800
Stop loss set slightly above the previous high: 84900
#BTC

240405 - Bitcoin $BTC Market Analysis

First, let’s state the viewpoint: Today's Bitcoin market is bearish.

As shown in Figure 1, Bitcoin has been moving closely along my downward trend line, a phenomenon referred to as: sideways fluctuations in a weak rebound.

Its core characteristics are:
The upper downward trend line provides resistance, and each rebound fails to break through;
The lower downward trend line (support line) has not been broken, indicating that buying power is insufficient to create distance;
The two downward trend lines form a wedge-shaped channel, and the price has been 'sticking' near the lower track of the channel; high points are continuously lowering, and low points are also continuously lowering. This indicates that bulls are getting weaker and market confidence is insufficient.

This kind of trend is a bearish signal!
Although the price has not 'truly broken down', the overall rhythm is: weak upward movement, bears in control, and short-selling momentum gradually accumulating.
There is a saying in the market to describe this type of trend: 'Not falling is even more dangerous.'

Sticking to the lower track indicates that the main force is not in a hurry to pump up the price, possibly waiting for news or time, building momentum for a strong downward move that directly breaks through support.
Therefore, friends looking to go long must strictly set stop-losses! The stop-loss range is 80500~81000.


Summary: The overall direction of $BTC today is bearish, bulls must strictly set stop-losses (80500~81000 is the stop-loss range), and I will consider placing some short positions around 83500~84000, with a stop-loss at 85500.