250407 - Ethereum $ETH Market Analysis

Ethereum has fallen more than 10 points today, which may present a phase-based buying opportunity!

In recent months, Ethereum has shown a phenomenon of 'dropping double, rising half' compared to Bitcoin. The exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin has also plummeted, now only at 0.02.

It can be said that the Ethereum cryptocurrency has reached a point of significant decline. Therefore, in the past, I have never recommended opening long positions in Ethereum.

However, I believe that Ethereum has now reached a phase-based bottom.

From the attached chart, we can see that Ethereum has now approached an important support level near 0.786. I believe it is unlikely to continue falling much more in the short term. The reasons are as follows:

1. We can see that from 2022 to 2023, the range from 0.786 to 0.618 (i.e., 1578~2120) has always been a trading concentration area for Ethereum.

2. ETH has fallen from a high (around 4,000) to the 0.786 retracement level, technically considered 'oversold'.

3. Currently, Bitcoin has also approached a support level; if Bitcoin stops falling and rebounds, ETH is likely to rebound as well. (As shown in the chart)

Therefore, I believe that the current price range of Ethereum (1550~1580) is a good area to establish some long positions. Currently, I have established long positions in both Ethereum and Bitcoin.

Of course, nothing is absolute. If the price of Ethereum $ETH still needs to further decline, then the next major support level would be 900. The probability of this is not high, but those who go long should still set a stop-loss (1450~1500).

The market changes rapidly; no matter how much you trust your own or others' analysis, you should always leave an exit route!