250409 - Bitcoin Market Analysis

First, the conclusion: Bitcoin $BTC is still in a bearish trend today.

Today, Trump has once again imposed a 50% tariff on China, which is another negative signal for the US stock market.

At the same time, considering the correlation between the US stock market and Bitcoin, Trump's tax policy is also a short-term negative for Bitcoin (those who cannot clarify this logic can refer to my article "The China-US Tariff War Will Long-Term Affect Bitcoin Trends")

Combining this news, let’s take a look at today’s Bitcoin candlestick chart. As shown in the figure:

Bitcoin has once again dropped to the previous low near 84500. Currently, there is a certain rebound.

However, note: from the trading volume, this rebound is a shrinking rebound. Volume increases during the decline, and decreases during the rebound, which is a typical bearish structure!

Bitcoin is still in a noticeable downtrend, with each rebound high gradually decreasing and repeatedly setting new lows.

Yesterday I mentioned that if Bitcoin could break above the resistance level of 81200, it might usher in a stronger rebound. However, it is evident that after failing to break this resistance level, Bitcoin is getting further away from 81200.

Moreover, the lowest point of Bitcoin's current trend is just a step away from the Fibonacci 0.382 support level (around 73500); I speculate that Bitcoin is likely to drop again to take out this position.

Therefore, my trading strategy today remains primarily short:

Short below the resistance level 79000~81200, stop loss at 82500, take profit at 75500.

Light position long near the support level 73500. Stop loss at 72000.

$BTC

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