250410 - Bitcoin Market Analysis
Let’s start with the conclusion: Bitcoin surged significantly today, but this is not a good point to chase the rise.
We can analyze the current Bitcoin market from two perspectives:
1. Tariff Perspective
After Trump announced a 10% tariff policy for over 75 countries for 90 days, the U.S. stock market experienced a broad rally, which also brought a nice rebound to the crypto market. However, this does not mean that the rebound will last for a long time.
Firstly, the trade war between the leaders, the U.S. and China, is still escalating, and the escalation of the trade war is obviously a negative factor for both the U.S. stock market and the crypto financial market.
Secondly, Trump is not imposing a 10% tariff on so many countries for a long time; this 90-day 10% tariff policy for over 75 countries is just a delaying tactic due to pressure from China.
Therefore, this should not be seen as a complete and long-term positive signal.
2. K-line Perspective
As shown in the chart, we can see that Bitcoin has currently risen above the 81200 resistance level.
However, it faced resistance and fell back near the Fibonacci trend line, and has further retraced to the 0.236 resistance level.
Thus, after digesting the positive news from the policy, Bitcoin reached near the resistance level but has shown weakness afterward.
Now, we need to observe Bitcoin’s movements in the range above the support level of 81200 and below the resistance level of 83500.
If Bitcoin falls below 81200 again, it can be seen as a continuation of the downward trend after digesting the positive effects of the policy.
If Bitcoin can break above the Fibonacci trend line resistance level, it may experience a stronger rebound.
However, it is certain that chasing the rise at this moment carries significant risks and has low profit potential.
My trading thoughts for today:
If Bitcoin falls below 81200, go short, stop loss at 83600.
If Bitcoin rises above 83500, take short-term long positions, stop loss at 81000.
