0xNing0x

Which of the following investment portfolios is more suitable for the cryptocurrency market environment in the second half of 2025?

The Polymarket prediction market shows a 47% probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30.

After Iran released news about submitting a proposal to the Supreme National Security Council to close the Strait of Hormuz, the probability on the Polymarket prediction market rose from 14% to this level.

However, institutional analysts still view Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a tail risk; even if the Supreme National Security Council orders a closure, it would likely only be a symbolic closure for a few days.

Therefore, my personal judgment is that in the next 7 days, the altcoin market in the crypto market will experience a dramatic reversal similar to what happened on April 7 of this year.

Looking back over the past few years in the crypto market, every time FUD reaches its peak, it has been a good buying opportunity.

Looking at the cryptocurrency market over the past few years, every time FUD reaches its peak, it has been a good buying point.

The Polymarket prediction market shows that the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz before June 30 is 47%.

After news from Iran about submitting a proposal to the Supreme National Security Council to close the Strait of Hormuz, the probability on the Polymarket prediction market rose from 14% to this level.

However, institutional analysts still consider Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz as a tail risk. Even if the Supreme National Security Council orders a closure, it would only be a symbolic closure for a few days.

Therefore, my personal judgment is that in the next 7 days, the altcoin market in the cryptocurrency space will experience a dramatic reversal similar to what happened on April 7 of this year.

According to Glassnode's latest weekly report, as BTC hovers near its ATH high, the Bitcoin blockchain has turned into a ghost town, with the daily average number of TX decreasing by 44% from a peak of 734K to 410K, and miners' daily average income dropping to $558K.

However, this is not necessarily a bearish sign, but rather two sides of the same coin regarding the institutional trend of BTC.

The average single TX amount on the Bitcoin blockchain has significantly increased to $36.2K, indicating that institutions and high-net-worth participants dominate on-chain activities. The daily average TX value is $7.5B, maintaining historical highs.

Nevertheless, the institutional trend of Bitcoin should not be equated with its upward potential, which is a major misconception in mainstream analysis. In fact, the marginal changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, the Fed's base interest rate, seasonal abundance/exhaustion in financial markets, and the impact of August's market structure bill on Bitcoin prices all have far greater influence than the institutional trend. The reason is that it has already been fully priced in.

Currently, the crypto market is in a state of significant divergence regarding Bitcoin's future trajectory, with both bulls and bears continually ramping up their positions, and the total open interest in derivatives like contracts and options has reached $96.2B.

Moreover, on June 27, there is a maximum pain point of $14.04B at the $100K Bitcoin options settlement, and players should be cautious of the settlement day curse effect.

According to the screenshot, if the Federal Reserve begins a rate cut cycle in the second half of the year, the profit from the growth rate of Circle's stablecoin scale must be greater than the damage to profits caused by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in order to sustain the current valuation bubble.

However, observing the total scale trend chart of stablecoins compiled by DefiLlama, achieving this is quite uncertain.

It's really hard to make some money from market trading in June!

For short-term opportunities, I'm afraid to invest at the market peak, and long-term opportunities are stuck in endless shaking.

I made a quick buck, but that was just $FLOCK.

So, taking advantage of the current mood and atmosphere, let’s draw 3 pieces of FLOCK Super Cool merchandise for the family.

Rules: Follow me and @flock_io, and leave a comment about your thoughts on AI x Crypto, and the results will be announced in 24 hours.

Entering late June, the situation in the 25-year cryptocurrency market has become quite clear!

There are two main trading logic lines throughout this year's cryptocurrency market:

1️⃣ One obvious line is the dispute over whether U.S. President Trump vs. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will lower interest rates this year.

Although most macro analysts refuse to introduce a political dimension into the analysis of the interest rate dispute between Trump and Powell, those who understand, understand. Whether interest rates are lowered or not has no direct relationship with U.S. inflation data and non-farm employment; it is actually a major leverage point in the political game between the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S.

Observing the current FedWatch interest rate expectations, Polymarket prediction markets, and Twitter sentiment, it can be seen that Powell firmly controls the narrative in the financial markets, while Trump can only rely on various tariff wars and social media to exert pressure and try to pull some influence in the financial markets.

Therefore, in the future equilibrium points of these two major games—Powell's departure in May 26 and the U.S. midterm elections—the entire market is in a state of uncertainty brought about by the confrontational game between Powell tightening market liquidity and Trump stirring up trouble everywhere.

2️⃣ A hidden line is the integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system, participating in the restructuring of the U.S. dollar financial system.

Whether it is increasing the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserves under the principle of fiscal neutrality or the U.S. version of the debt restructuring plan aiming to raise the stablecoin scale to over $2 trillion in the coming years, including the upcoming market structure legislation clarifying whether the regulatory body for the crypto market is the SEC or the CFTC, and whether PerpDEX represented by Hyperliquid can operate domestically in the U.S., Trump’s regulatory actions and public speeches by Vance are all indicating that the Trump administration regards cryptocurrencies as an organic part of reshaping the 21st-century U.S. dollar financial system.

Therefore, the year 25 is destined to be a year of uncertainty. For us retail investors, this year's investments and trades are like a small boat sailing into turbulent waves amid storms. Making money from investments and trades this year is an epic-level difficulty.

But the year 25 is not a year to lie flat; finding certainty amid uncertainty is the path of the wise.

I see two certainty layout opportunities for 26 years:
1. U.S. version of debt restructuring - stablecoins - PayFi - RWA
2. CFTC regulating the crypto market - PerpDEX - Hyperliquid/consumer chain - Abstract

Anyway, our mission in 25 is not to leave the table, while secretly preparing our cards for 26.

That's all.

$IRIS This loom trend, this pool, this trading volume, playing with Der ah!

@virtuals_io and @ethereum jointly hatched a big Shitcoin

This casts a shadow over the new Ethereum Foundation's advocacy for the commercialization of the L1 artistic renaissance.

Hello Infinex Swidge, I don't understand:

Why is the slippage for swapping the USDC-USDT stablecoin trading pair on the Ethereum mainnet as high as 0.19%?

Why is Uniswap automatically selected instead of the better Cowswap?

I originally wanted to use @infinex's Swidge to fund the AI Agent project I.R.I.S, which is a joint incubation by Virtual and the Ethereum Foundation.

Seeing this test result, I was directly discouraged🤣

Dear Infinex Swidge, I don't understand:

Why is the slippage for the USDC-USDT stablecoin trading pair swap on the Ethereum mainnet as high as 0.19%?

Why does the router automatically choose Uniswap instead of the better Cowswap?

I originally wanted to use @infinex's Swidge to support the AI Agent project I.R.I.S, jointly incubated with the Ethereum Foundation.

Seeing this test result, I was directly discouraged 🤣

I don't understand:

Why is the slippage for USDC-USDT stablecoin trading pairs on the Ethereum mainnet as high as 0.19%?

Why is Uniswap automatically chosen instead of the better Cowswap?

I originally wanted to use @infinex's Swidge to fund the AI Agent project I.R.I.S., incubated in collaboration with the Ethereum Foundation.

Seeing this test result, I'm directly discouraged.🤣

Is it time for another DeFi summer? 🤩

I checked the briefing from the SEC DeFi Roundtable, and to sum it up: DeFi is a programmable fintech example of the American spirit, and it is a national treasure that ensures the United States remains a leader.

Friends who missed the first wave of the rise need not worry; the DeFi leaders have only just begun to emerge from the bottom and are forming an upward trend on a weekly level. Building positions at this time belongs to right-side positioning, which is actually safer.

Is it time for DeFi summer again? 🤩

In midlife, the only things that can heal oneself, apart from money, are revisiting childhood.

The Tao Te Ching states: to be a stream for the world, one must not part from constant virtue, and return to being like an infant.

I wish all partners and friends can find their true selves, no longer troubled by the noise and uncertainty of the probability game, and roam freely among all things.

Thanks to @Matrixport_EN @Matrixport_CN for the claw machine
Thanks to @HuobiGlobal @justinsuntron @HTX_Molly for the sunscreen clothing, the fabric is high-quality and comfortable
Thanks to @BitMartExchange @BitMart_zh for the camping bag, the leather feels amazing
Thanks to @DeribitOfficial @DeribitCN for the traditional Chinese zongzi gift box, my kids love it
Thanks to @CoinWOfficial for the sincere zongzi gift, it satisfies my appetite.

I didn't sit (cuo), I'm the king of mouth-pulling, and this time I pulled in 227,326 μPatrons, worth $1,374.40.

Personally, I expect that the chain-abstracted DEX represented by @infinex and @ParticleNtwrk will truly welcome the first round of explosive growth after the market structure plan in August this year (the alternative version of the FIT Act) is passed.

Before discussing gmFLOCK, we must confront a fundamental contradiction in the DeAI track: the essence of DeAI is a collaborative sharing network of computing power data, models, and agents, but the current token economic model systematically incentivizes speculation and short-sighted behavior.

This contradiction can be seen in almost all AI x Crypto projects: project parties need tokens to incentivize computing power, data, models, and UGC Agent contributions, but the financial attributes of tokens inevitably attract a large amount of speculative capital. The result is that the interests of users who truly want to participate in the long-term construction of DeAI are diluted by those “farmers” who only care about short-term arbitrage.

However, this problem is not without a solution. DeFi protocols, as pioneers, have already explored the use of Ve(3,3) mechanisms in the last cycle to realign the interests of speculators and long-termists, thereby achieving dynamic balance and long-term stable operation within the system. Classic successful cases include Curve, GMX, Aerodrome, and so on.

Therefore, as a new generation DeAI project that is still getting things done and first introduced federated machine learning into the DeAI field, the Flock team dares to lead the industry again by introducing the Ve(3,3) mechanism into the DeAI token economics practice, where the longer the locking period, the more rights and incentives obtained, launching the gmFLOCK mechanism.

gmFLOCK is the core innovation of the FLock training platform's token economic mechanism, designed to enhance ecosystem participation. Its uniqueness lies in the use of a non-transferable token model, where users must stake FLOCK tokens (with a maximum lock-up period of 365 days) to generate gmFLOCK, which serves as participation certificates for the following three key ecosystem roles:

1. Training node operators
2. Network validators
3. Delegated staking participants

The rewards (token issuance) obtained by users through participating in platform functions are still distributed in the form of FLOCK. By introducing a time-locked staking mechanism, gmFLOCK encourages users to participate in the platform ecosystem for the long term, effectively aligning economic incentives with platform development goals. This ensures a high degree of consistency among all participants, thereby promoting the sustainable growth of the decentralized AI training network.

This mechanism transforms FLOCK from a tradable asset into productive capital within the ecosystem, directly linking token utility with platform growth while reducing speculative volatility.

Note: gmFLOCK is a soul-bound token, non-tradable and only used for staking on the FLock platform, and does not imply that FLock has a dual-token model; the total token supply or release schedule will not change due to gmFLOCK.

gmFLOCK addresses the following issues:

-- Optimizing the token economic model

Under the gmFLOCK mechanism, users can only participate in various activities on the FLock training platform through gmFLOCK (non-transferable tokens). gmFLOCK is obtained by locking FLOCK, which greatly reduces the circulating supply of FLOCK, stabilizing the price and slowing down market fluctuations.

By combining the lock-up mechanism with platform functions, gmFLOCK strengthens the token economic system of https://t.co/syJWOmmBx3. This approach enhances the long-term value of FLOCK, promotes the sustainable development of the ecosystem, and provides users with a more flexible and incentivizing participation model.

-- The multiplier effect of the gmFLOCK mechanism

gmFLOCK mechanism aims to incentivize long-term lock-up: the longer users lock up FLOCK, the more gmFLOCK they obtain. The basic ratio is that for a lock-up of 0–30 days, 1 gmFLOCK is obtained for every 1 FLOCK staked, and for each additional day locked, an extra 0.006 gmFLOCK can be obtained, with a maximum lock-up period of 365 days. This will directly increase the users' staking power, allowing them to receive a larger share of rewards from the platform's incentive pool.

Through this mechanism, the lock-up time of users is directly related to their mining rewards. This model not only optimizes the token economy but also helps maintain the liquidity and value stability of FLOCK over the long term.

gmFLOCK is designed not to create additional complexity in token economics but to reward those who truly want to build the DeAI network together with FLock.

If you believe in the future of decentralized AI, don't just be a passive observer; come stake and become part of the network.

How to obtain and use gmFLOCK

Step 0: Visit https://t.co/EovyCyoUk3 and connect your wallet.

Follow the prompts on the page to connect your wallet.

Step 1: Stake FLOCK to obtain gmFLOCK

In this step, you decide the amount of FLOCK you want to stake and the duration of the stake.
For every 1 FLOCK staked, you can obtain 1 gmFLOCK within a 0-30 days staking period. Each additional day of staking can earn an extra 0.006 gmFLOCK.

Step 1.1: Determine the staking amount and duration
Then click “Stake,” approve the transaction in your wallet, and you will successfully stake FLOCK to obtain gmFLOCK.

Step 1.2: You can view all your staking records.

Step 2: Use gmFLOCK

After obtaining gmFLOCK, you can use it to participate as a training node, validator, or delegator.

Step 3: Redeem FLOCK

After the staking period ends, you can exchange gmFLOCK back for FLOCK. Click “Redeem” to enter “My Staking History.”

Step 3.1: You can view the redeemable staking records.

Select all the staking items you want to redeem and click “Redeem.”

Thus, you have successfully exchanged gmFLOCK for FLOCK.

End.

82,160 $HUMA airdrops!

The early believer weight bonus in the Huma Yapper airdrop allocation algorithm is perfect for someone like me, a natural Alpha hunter.

I first heard about the PayFi narrative during Lily Liu's remote presentation at the @Foresight_News Hong Kong summit in the summer of 2023. I realized that compared to the then-popular trend of tokenizing TON Mini app games, PayFi, with its real scenarios, real income, and real positive externalities, is more worthy of long-term investment.

Therefore, when writing my reflections on the event, I highlighted the PayFi narrative.

Then, Huma's knowledgeable market sister @jcmeowjc contacted me via private message to write the first systematic popular science article in Chinese about Huma and PayFi. This article topped the @PANewsCN popular rankings at that time.

Thus, I became an early believer in PayFi and Huma. Since then, I have maintained close cooperation with Huma.

As Trump was elected President of the United States, the U.S. established a Bitcoin national reserve, and the U.S. passed stablecoin legislation, PayFi emerged as the latest paradigm and new scenario for stablecoins and RAW, becoming the focal point of market attention and a darling of market funds.

Recently, Huma's phenomenally successful TGE has also become a natural outcome.

Finally, I want to express my gratitude to @humafinance, @DrPayFi, and @jcmeowjc. Together, we have experienced this cyber version of a fantastic drift, which will become one of the most cherished memories of my life.

Lastly, I must buy a house and settle down in Chengdu.

$HUMA

82,160 $HUMA airdrops!

The early adopter weight bonus in the Huma Yapper airdrop allocation algorithm is perfect for someone like me, a natural Alpha hunter.

From the first time I heard about the PayFi narrative during Lily Liu's remote presentation at the @Foresight_News Hong Kong summit in the summer of 2023, I realized that compared to the then-popular TON Mini program tokenization craze, PayFi, with its real scenarios + real income + real positive externalities, is much more worthy of long-term investment.

Therefore, when writing my thoughts on the conference, I emphasized the PayFi narrative.

Then, Huma's knowledgeable market sister @jcmeowjc contacted me via private message to write the first systematic popular science article in Chinese about Huma and PayFi, which topped the @PANewsCN popular rankings at that time.

As a result, I became an early believer in PayFi and Huma. Since then, I have maintained close cooperation with Huma.

With the election of Trump as the President of the United States, the establishment of a Bitcoin national reserve in the U.S., and the passage of stablecoin legislation, PayFi has emerged as the latest paradigm and new scenario for stablecoins and RAW, becoming the focal point of market attention and the darling of market funds.

Recently, Huma's phenomenally successful TGE has also become a natural outcome.

Finally, I want to express my gratitude to @humafinance, @DrPayFi, and @jcmeowjc. We have experienced this cyber version of a fantastic drift together, which will be one of the most beautiful memories in my life.

Lastly, I must buy a house and settle down in Chengdu.

$HUMA

82,150 $HUMA airdrops!

The early believer weight boost in the Huma Yapper airdrop allocation algorithm is just perfect for someone like me, a natural Alpha hunter.

From the first time I heard about the PayFi narrative during Lily Liu's remote presentation at the Forsight Hong Kong summit in the summer of 2023, I realized that compared to the hot trend of tokenizing TON Mini apps at that time, PayFi, with its real scenarios + real income + real positive externalities, deserves long-term investment.

Therefore, when writing my reflections on the conference, I emphasized the PayFi narrative.

Subsequently, Huma's knowledgeable market representative @jcmeowjc contacted me via private message to write the first systematic popular science article in Chinese about Huma and PayFi, which topped the @PANewsCN trending charts at the time.

As a result, I became an early believer in PayFi and Huma. Since then, I have maintained close cooperation with Huma.

With the election of Trump as President of the United States, the establishment of a Bitcoin national reserve, and the passage of the stablecoin bill, PayFi has become the focus of market attention and the darling of market funds as the latest paradigm and new scenario for stablecoins and RAW.

It has become a natural occurrence for Huma's phenomenally successful TGE in recent days.

Lastly, I want to express my gratitude to @humafinance, @DrPayFi, and @jcmeowjc. Together, we have experienced this cyber version of a fantastic drift, which will become one of the most beautiful memories of my life.

Finally, I must buy a house in Chengdu and settle down.

$HUMA

82,160 $HUMA airdrops!

The early believer weight bonus in the Huma Yapper airdrop allocation algorithm is perfect for someone like me, a natural Alpha hunter.

When I first heard about the PayFi narrative during Lily Liu's remote presentation at the Forsight Hong Kong Summit in the summer of 2023, I realized that compared to the then-popular TON Mini program tokenization craze, PayFi, which has real scenarios + real income + real positive externalities, is more worthy of long-term investment.

Therefore, when writing my reflections on the conference, I highlighted the PayFi narrative.

Then, Huma's highly knowledgeable market sister @jcmeowjc contacted me via private message to write the first systematic popular science article in Chinese about Huma and PayFi, which ranked first on @PANewsCN's trending list at that time.

Thus, I became an early believer in PayFi and Huma, and subsequently maintained close cooperation with Huma.

With the election of Trump as President of the United States, the U.S. establishing Bitcoin as a national reserve, and the passage of the stablecoin bill, PayFi has become the focus of market attention as the latest paradigm and new scenario for stablecoins and RAW, becoming the darling of market funds.

In the past few days, Huma's phenomenally successful TGE has also become a natural outcome.

Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to @humafinance, @DrPayFi, and @jcmeowjc. Our journey through this cyber version of a fantastic drift will be one of the most beautiful memories of my life.

Lastly, I must buy a house and settle down in Chengdu.

$HUMA