Entering late June, the situation in the 25-year cryptocurrency market has become quite clear!
There are two main trading logic lines throughout this year's cryptocurrency market:
1️⃣ One obvious line is the dispute over whether U.S. President Trump vs. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will lower interest rates this year.
Although most macro analysts refuse to introduce a political dimension into the analysis of the interest rate dispute between Trump and Powell, those who understand, understand. Whether interest rates are lowered or not has no direct relationship with U.S. inflation data and non-farm employment; it is actually a major leverage point in the political game between the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S.
Observing the current FedWatch interest rate expectations, Polymarket prediction markets, and Twitter sentiment, it can be seen that Powell firmly controls the narrative in the financial markets, while Trump can only rely on various tariff wars and social media to exert pressure and try to pull some influence in the financial markets.
Therefore, in the future equilibrium points of these two major games—Powell's departure in May 26 and the U.S. midterm elections—the entire market is in a state of uncertainty brought about by the confrontational game between Powell tightening market liquidity and Trump stirring up trouble everywhere.
2️⃣ A hidden line is the integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system, participating in the restructuring of the U.S. dollar financial system.
Whether it is increasing the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserves under the principle of fiscal neutrality or the U.S. version of the debt restructuring plan aiming to raise the stablecoin scale to over $2 trillion in the coming years, including the upcoming market structure legislation clarifying whether the regulatory body for the crypto market is the SEC or the CFTC, and whether PerpDEX represented by Hyperliquid can operate domestically in the U.S., Trump’s regulatory actions and public speeches by Vance are all indicating that the Trump administration regards cryptocurrencies as an organic part of reshaping the 21st-century U.S. dollar financial system.
Therefore, the year 25 is destined to be a year of uncertainty. For us retail investors, this year's investments and trades are like a small boat sailing into turbulent waves amid storms. Making money from investments and trades this year is an epic-level difficulty.
But the year 25 is not a year to lie flat; finding certainty amid uncertainty is the path of the wise.
I see two certainty layout opportunities for 26 years:
1. U.S. version of debt restructuring - stablecoins - PayFi - RWA
2. CFTC regulating the crypto market - PerpDEX - Hyperliquid/consumer chain - Abstract
Anyway, our mission in 25 is not to leave the table, while secretly preparing our cards for 26.
That's all.
