There will be two interest rate cuts this year, but Lao Bao is unwilling to get the market excited in advance. That wide range of shocks should continue.

1. The U.S. core CPI fell to a three-year low in May, lower than expected, and expectations for an interest rate cut have increased.

2. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive time, in line with market expectations.

3. The dot plot predicts only one 25 basis point interest rate cut in 2024, and four rate cuts in 2025.

4. The inflation rate has eased significantly, but it is still too high, and interest rates are not expected to be cut until inflation is sustainable towards 2%.

5. It has not yet reached the stage of announcing an interest rate cut date, and monetary policy will be relaxed as appropriate in the future.

The U.S. CPI was lower than expected, and the market immediately became excited again. It can only be said that the expectation management of the United States is too strong, but it is obvious that the Federal Reserve still has no urgency to cut interest rates. Three important indicators: 1. Inflation still has not reached Within 3%, even if the advance is made, there is still a long way to go before the promised 2%. 2. The unemployment rate has not increased significantly, and employment continues to show strong performance. 3. Not only is there no crisis in the financial system, there may also be overheating after excessive currency issuance. After all, no one thinks there is a bubble during the upsurge cycle, which is why financial clearing cycles always appear.

Although Mr. Bao’s speech did not go as far as the market expected, it does not affect the overall situation! The market believes that if the data gets better, there will be two interest rate cuts this year, but Lao Bao does not want the market to get excited in advance. The wide range of shocks should continue (now it is a process from the upper edge to the lower edge of the shock zone). If Lao Bao didn't suppress it last night, then a good market should start by the end of June. Now after the suppression, we have to continue to look at the subsequent macro data, such as the next non-agricultural CPI, PCE, etc. Even if the data is good, good market expectations will have to be postponed to July. The recent "luck" + power BTC88109. From a technical perspective, the low on May 10, the daily MA120, and the lowest point on Tuesday 6.6w are all supports. However, it is uncertain whether 6.6w can be sustained. It is safer to continue to wait and see. #BTC走势预测 #大饼涨这样 #美联储连续第七次维持基准利率不变 #meme板块关注热点