Dogecoin (DOGE), which has long been closely related to Musk's influence, is facing significant pressure after being excluded from X platform's 2025 cryptocurrency integration roadmap and experiencing consecutive technical failures.
According to a report leaked by the UK (Financial Times) about X's 'super app' strategy, X plans to launch a Visa-supported crypto payment integration but did not mention Dogecoin. Given Musk's strong promotion of Dogecoin on the X platform, this absence took the market by surprise, raising speculation that Dogecoin may not play a core role in X's fintech ecosystem, leading to a sell-off.
Technical analysis: Dogecoin has broken through several key technical levels.
The 10-day SMA trading price is below the short-term average of $0.176, reflecting recent weakness. The 50-day SMA has dropped below the mid-term average of $0.201, confirming a bearish trend. The 14-day RSI is at 31.94, in the oversold area, but there are no bullish divergence signs.
The current key support level is $0.159, close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. If it breaks down, the next target may be $0.14, which was previously touched in the April-May 2023 period.
Market background: Risk aversion is dragging down altcoins, with Dogecoin's decline consistent with the overall weakness of altcoins.
Bitcoin's dominance has risen to 64.4%, squeezing funds from speculative assets like memecoins. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 43 (neutral), reflecting cautious sentiment among investors. Trading volume surged 11% to $832 million, but mainly due to panic selling rather than accumulation.
Future DOGE trend: If bearish pressure continues and $0.159 is lost, Dogecoin may further test: the psychological integer level of $0.148 and historical support. The $0.136-$0.140 range is the last demand area before the price range at the beginning of 2023. In the short term, unless market sentiment improves or a positive catalyst appears (such as Musk endorsing again or integration within the X ecosystem), Dogecoin is unlikely to recover lost ground.
