Yesterday afternoon, the market suddenly surged, creating the illusion of a 'big rise.' By evening, it was no longer pretending, and the liquidity of long positions in the 100k~110k range was liquidated, breaking the balance between long and short, with high-position shorts dominating. In yesterday’s article (The Dog Funds Are No Longer Pretending! Bitcoin and Ethereum are turning points, 60% of retail investors may be harvested! ZKJ plummeted and was halved! A big market is coming tonight! Seize the opportunity for 10 times the profit!), it predicted a trap for the bulls, and the market fell as expected, with BTC making another profit.
BTC
This weekend, pay attention to the BTC long-term futures liquidation map: The liquidity distribution for over a month is highly distorted. The liquidation map only shows the liquidity for opening futures positions, and closing positions are not counted. If the price holds above the lower edge of the 100k range, the target may point to 114700. Additionally, due to the Middle East conflict, the price did not clear high short positions and turned around directly, making subsequent analysis more difficult.
Currently, BTC is experiencing a downward correction after a drop, and the hourly level has broken the previous low of 102614, showing a lower low, which is not a good performance. Pay attention to the support level to see if it holds. Resistance levels are 103825-104566-105491, and support levels are 103000-102341-101434. If the 4-hour level breaks 102339 and cannot recover, the target positions below could be 101489-100699.
ETH
ETH hit a low of 2364, the second order point was not hit, but the long-standing point of 2403 was hit again. If you missed this order in the morning, just wait for the high and deep squat opportunities. Last night, the first order point was around 2542. At this moment, a $40 rebound is needed to break even, and breaking even is consistent with BTC. Exit first; do not turn short-term speculation into long-term. If given the opportunity, just run! If you added to your position at the 2403 long-standing point, the average price is lower, only 2434. The highest rebound in the early morning was 2437, just enough to break even and run!
Currently, ETH is at daily support of 2380, and it may rebound over the weekend. Opening a long position around 2400 requires observing market sentiment, and stop-loss should be set in abnormal situations. The decline is due to a decrease in spot CVD, and an increase in open interest shows a betting rebound. The upward movement maintains volatility, and if it breaks down or probes 2200.
In any case, with proper position control, there is a chance to exit at breakeven this weekend. Good position control is like not wasting bullets on the battlefield; otherwise, once you shoot, without opening fire, you might lose your chance of survival!
Review
PNUT
Yesterday, I clearly stated my viewpoint in the article, with the long position around 0.20, and those who followed up made 20% profit.
HYPE
The short position password given has made a profit of 217%. Yesterday, it was mentioned that there were two large buy orders below at 33.105 and 29.993. The opportunity to go long is likely around this area, and fans who went long at 33 are also starting to profit.
FARTCOIN
I have long felt that this coin's trend is very fragile and could collapse at any time. A few days ago, it was stubbornly holding and not dropping. I wanted to close my position several times but gritted my teeth and held on. Today, it finally plummeted, FARTCOIN fell sharply, and the short position profit surged to +400.88%.
Fans who have been following me should be able to see that I am currently trading altcoins 'just following the trend.' The current market is 'selling high and buying low.' From yesterday to today, I made quite a bit on short positions, and I found several good opportunities for shorting altcoins.
Altcoin
SOL
After dropping from early April to 95, it was oversold, rebounded nearly twice, and then continued to distribute. This is a standard cycle distribution pattern; you can refer to the previous round. Here, if you want to bet on a second test, you can buy around 110-120, but if it breaks, you must run fast. If it breaks 100 again, everyone might as well travel and rest until 2025.
ANIME and BMT
The manipulation of meme coins often ends with a sharp decline on the last needle. Recently, the new tactic has been to repeatedly probe downwards before inserting the needle, exhausting shorts and attracting buying. This is seen in the recent performance of Anime and BMT. In this situation, long positions should look for opportunities to close, and shorts should avoid chasing, suggesting low leverage to short at highs, as this is usually at the tail end of the market.
The crypto market has been the best place for underdogs to make a comeback and overtake in the last decade, but this does not mean it will always be so, just like in 2013.
Therefore, we must persistently learn in this circle, especially after experiencing the eras of inscriptions, meme, and AI agents, the pace of the crypto market has clearly accelerated. Many so-called leading projects might not last more than three months. We must seize projects with eternal characteristics and bravely say goodbye to old coins that are at risk of being eliminated.
Lastly, a breaking news—Trump is again criticizing Powell, repeatedly emphasizing that the Federal Reserve needs to lower interest rates quickly and reconsider whether Powell should be fired!
