#BTC #历史周期 #牛熊交替 $BTC

Will the last round of black swans happen again?

I still have memories of the crash in Circle B on March 12, 2020.

On this day, Bitcoin experienced its largest decline since its birth.

The cause of this crash was a combination of Bitcoin's liquidity stampede, panic, liquidity channel obstruction, and some selling pressure in the spot market.

Large sell orders appeared in the market to sell Bitcoin spot. Due to the limited buying depth of most transactions, the price of Bitcoin was quickly suppressed.

Subsequently, the spot market price was transmitted to the futures market, causing futures to fall with leverage, and bulls had no time to respond to a large number of liquidated positions. During this period, the long positions that were not liquidated were also liquidated due to insufficient buying and unable to cover their positions in time, further reducing the market's expectations for the price of Bitcoin, and the market quickly developed fear.

A linkage effect occurs in the futures and spot markets, investors begin to panic, market emotions are ignited, and short sellers attack aggressively, causing prices to fall.

On March 12, 2020, the sharp decline in Circle B may also be due to the following policy factors:

- Spread of the epidemic: The epidemic has spread to more countries, causing continued impact on the global economy.

- US stock market circuit breaker: The traditional capital market, especially the US stock market, has accumulated a lot of bubbles. The recent frequent black swan events have triggered continued market turbulence and downward trend. US stock futures have circuit breaker twice in a week, all global stock markets have fallen, and Bitcoin has plummeted. To a large extent, it is also affected by this series of chain reactions.