牛熊交替

#BTC #历史周期 #牛熊交替 $BTC
Will the last round of black swans happen again?

I still have memories of the crash in Circle B on March 12, 2020.
On this day, Bitcoin experienced its largest decline since its birth.
The cause of this crash was a combination of Bitcoin's liquidity stampede, panic, liquidity channel obstruction, and some selling pressure in the spot market.
Large sell orders appeared in the market to sell Bitcoin spot. Due to the limited buying depth of most transactions, the price of Bitcoin was quickly suppressed.
Subsequently, the spot market price was transmitted to the futures market, causing futures to fall with leverage, and bulls had no time to respond to a large number of liquidated positions. During this period, the long positions that were not liquidated were also liquidated due to insufficient buying and unable to cover their positions in time, further reducing the market's expectations for the price of Bitcoin, and the market quickly developed fear.
A linkage effect occurs in the futures and spot markets, investors begin to panic, market emotions are ignited, and short sellers attack aggressively, causing prices to fall.

On March 12, 2020, the sharp decline in Circle B may also be due to the following policy factors:

- Spread of the epidemic: The epidemic has spread to more countries, causing continued impact on the global economy.
- US stock market circuit breaker: The traditional capital market, especially the US stock market, has accumulated a lot of bubbles. The recent frequent black swan events have triggered continued market turbulence and downward trend. US stock futures have circuit breaker twice in a week, all global stock markets have fallen, and Bitcoin has plummeted. To a large extent, it is also affected by this series of chain reactions.

#牛市到来 #牛市进展 #牛熊交替
The Essentials of Positioning Strategies in a Bull Market

In the wave of the bull market, the market generally shows an upward trend, and the profit effect is significant. At this time, following the trend and precise layout become the way to win. The following is a discussion of refined strategies for position management under different investment cycles:

1. The art of short-term gaming

In short-term trading, although you need to be cautious, you should also dare to take a moderately large position. Focus on market hot spots and leaders, keep up with the trend and capture small-band profits. The key is to avoid trading too frequently to avoid falling into a cost trap. Select individual coins and keep an eye on market dynamics to ensure that every move can accurately target market hot spots.

2. The sound way of mid-line layout

For the midline, position management is particularly important. In the early stages of a bull market, about one-third of the position can be initially established as a test of the waters. As the market trend becomes clear and corrections occur, gradually increase your position to about 80%, taking advantage of market fluctuations to effectively reduce costs. In the mid-term stage, it is mainly about holding and patiently waiting for the huge returns brought by the rising market. At the same time, pay close attention to market signals. Once it is discovered that the bull market may enter a phased adjustment, make timely adjustments and appropriately reduce positions to lock in profits.

3. The wisdom of long-term holding

Under the macro perspective of the bull market, long-term investment requires a strategic vision. At the end of a bear market or at the beginning of a bull market, most of the positions have been deployed and high-quality assets with long-term growth potential have been selected. During the holding process, maintain patience and determination, and do not be affected by short-term fluctuations. When the market or a certain market shows signs of significant overvaluation, a strategy of reducing positions in batches should be adopted decisively to avoid the risk of bubble bursting. If the market confirms that it has turned from bullish to bearish, positions should be cleared quickly to ensure the safety of funds.

To sum up, position management in a bull market needs to be flexibly adjusted according to market rhythm and one's own risk tolerance. Whether it is short-term gaming, mid-term layout or long-term holding, you need to maintain an attitude of calm analysis, decisive decision-making and continuous learning. In the turbulent market, find your own steady channel.

Personal point of view, only for reference!