ETH currently feels like a beast bound to a barrel of explosives—prolonged sideways movement has made retail investors anxious, with such small fluctuations that even high-frequency trading quantitative robots seem to be in 'sleep mode'! However, seasoned veterans who have been through the ups and downs in the crypto space know well: the calmer the market, the more hidden crises often lurk beneath!
There are 28 hours and 44 minutes left (which is 2 AM Thursday, remember this time point!), the Federal Reserve's 'interest rate cut sword' is about to swing down. Will this knife 'unbind and salvage' ETH, or will it leave it 'in tatters'? The key support level at 4400 will either be a 'wealth lowland' tonight or a 'bottomless abyss'!
The current mentality of retail investors: like gamblers anxiously waiting for the cards to be dealt in a casino!
Look at the market: ETH is firmly stuck in the narrow range of 4490 - 4530, the 1-hour K-line trend has almost become a straight line, trading volume has shrunk to 'extremely low', the RSI indicator is stuck at 45, and the MACD fast and slow lines are bonded together like strong glue— the market seems to have lost even the strength to 'struggle'!
But don't be fooled by this superficial calm! The Federal Reserve's decision in 28 hours is considered the 'super heavyweight event' in the cryptocurrency field this year!
If the interest rate cut exceeds expectations: the liquidity of the dollar will flood like a dam breaking, funds will surge into the cryptocurrency market like hungry wolves, and ETH is likely to break through 4540, even expected to reach 4670 (those who short should be careful not to get 'washed out'!).
If the interest rate cut is below expectations: the market will interpret it as a 'hawkish signal', the dollar will rise sharply, and ETH will be ruthlessly smashed below 4400, possibly plummeting to 4350 (those who go long should quickly set their stop losses!).
Why is 28 hours later the 'critical moment'?
Technical aspect: Pressure has accumulated to the limit! ETH has been sideways for 12 consecutive hours, the Bollinger Bands are as narrow as a needle's eye, and volatility has dropped to historical lows—this technical pattern will either trigger a soaring market or lead to a disastrous crash, there is absolutely no possibility of a smooth transition in between!
News: The Federal Reserve holds the 'master switch'! The pricing power of global risk assets is now completely controlled by the Federal Reserve. A 25 basis point rate cut can only be considered 'passing level', a 50 basis point cut is 'an unexpected surprise', and no rate cut would be 'disaster coming'.
Capital situation: Large funds are 'secretly gathering strength'! Recently, the number of addresses for ETH whales has remained silent for three consecutive days, indicating that large funds are also patiently waiting for news from the Federal Reserve. Once the direction is clear, follow-up trades will surge like a tide—4400 is the market's 'psychological bottom line', and once it breaks, the market will collapse!
Xuanji's conclusion: The current sideways trend is just a 'brief calm before the storm', and the Federal Reserve's decision in 28 hours will determine whether ETH soars 'to great heights' or plummets 'into the abyss'.
Tonight's battle strategy
Aggressive: The current price is at 4500, you can short with a small position, strictly set the stop loss at 4550, and target 4400. If the price encounters support during the downward process and rebounds, consider closing part of the position near 4400 to lock in profits.
Conservative: Patiently wait for the price to pull back to around 4530 before entering short, also set the stop loss at 4550, the target is also 4400. This method can reduce risk to a certain extent and increase the possibility of profit.
ETH's current 'calm' is like the 'dead silence' before the storm— the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in 28 hours is the 'fatal spark' that ignites it. Either the price will plummet like a waterfall, creating a 'diamond pit'; or the price will soar like a rocket, breaking through the resistance zone. But remember: before the news is officially released, don't be a 'reckless martyr', be a 'smart hunter'!
I am Xuanji, focusing on practical operations in the cryptocurrency circle for 10 years—follow me to avoid traps and seize real wealth opportunities! When the next big market comes, we will join forces to attend the wealth feast!
