Last night, several data points for the U.S. in August were actually quite good: ADP employment growth was below expectations, and initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected, both indicating that the labor market is cooling down, further strengthening expectations for interest rate cuts.

Afterwards, the U.S. August S&P Global Services PMI was slightly below expectations but above the expansion line, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was above expectations (with the employment index contracting for three consecutive months, the services price index slightly below expectations, and the orders index far exceeding expectations), indicating that the economic fundamentals are fine and consumer services remain resilient.

This is close to what was previously described as the best-case scenario: the economy is fine, labor is slowing down, and prices are not very strong. This drove U.S. stocks overall up last night, with the Russell 2000 leading the gains. Due to Nasdaq regulations, the cryptocurrency market was directly hit.

Of course, the most important thing is today's non-farm payrolls and the CPI data in the middle of the month. As previously discussed, it would be best for tonight's non-farm payrolls to be close to expectations (a small deviation from expectations, whether in line, slightly low, or slightly high, is acceptable);

Far below expectations could lead to a greater expectation for interest rate cuts, but the market would have to endure small shocks caused by recession concerns;

Far above expectations would naturally be the worst for the market, and the path for interest rate cuts would have to change. #非农就业数据来袭 #美联储降息预期