At 20:30 Beijing time on September 5, 2025, the US labor data for August, which the global financial markets had been holding their breath for, was finally revealed. The result, like a deep-water bomb thrown into a calm lake, stirred up massive waves. The data showed that the non-farm payrolls (NFP) in August only increased by 22,000, far from the market's general expectation of an increase of 75,000 to 78,000, marking a complete 'cold shock.' Meanwhile, the unemployment rate recorded at 4.3%, completely in line with expectations. This report of contrasting data instantly rewrote the market's short-term script: the US dollar index plummeted, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged to boiling point, while the cryptocurrency market, at the forefront of risk assets, seems to be迎来一场久违的狂欢前夜. This report will delve into the immediate impact and profound logic of this event.
Chapter 1: Data Interpretation: The 'Chill' That Exceeds Expectations and Complex Signals
The data released tonight can be summed up in one word: Cold.
First, let's focus on the most shocking non-farm employment number. A mere increase of 22,000 people, not only far below the relatively conservative median forecast of 75,000 from economists, but even more dismal than the earlier released 'little non-farm' ADP employment data (which added 54,000 jobs) that had already shown fatigue. This is no longer a simple 'missed expectation,' but rather a 'cliff-like' underperformance. It hits hard like a heavy punch to those market participants still harboring fantasies of strong resilience in the U.S. economy. This indicates that the trend of cooling in the labor market, which began to emerge in mid-2025, is deteriorating at an unexpectedly rapid pace. Weak consumption and frozen corporate hiring intentions are starkly reflected in the cold numbers.
However, the interesting thing is that the unemployment rate for August landed precisely at the expected point of 4.3%, which is only a slight increase from the previous value of 4.2%. Why has the unemployment rate remained relatively stable despite nearly stagnant non-farm job growth? This hides a more disturbing signal: the labor participation rate may be declining. In other words, an increasing number of people may have directly exited the labor market out of despair, and they are not counted as 'unemployed,' thus 'beautifying' the unemployment rate at the data level. This 'recession-style stability' is even more alarming than a surge in the unemployment rate itself, as it suggests that the intrinsic vitality of the economy is waning, rather than merely undergoing a cyclical adjustment.
Overall, this report paints a concerning picture: the growth engine of the U.S. economy, namely the employment market, is nearly extinguished.
Chapter 2: The 'Knee-Jerk Response' of Traditional Financial Markets: The Collapse of the Dollar and the Cry for Rate Cuts
Macro data is the cause; market reaction is the effect. In the face of this 'disastrous' non-farm report, traditional financial markets almost instantly provided the most instinctive and intense response as soon as the data was released.
1. The free fall of the dollar
The trend of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is the most classic. Before the data was released, the dollar was still hovering around the 100 mark, and bulls seemed to expect the data to support the Fed's 'higher for longer' rate policy. However, when the number 22,000 was announced, the faith of dollar bulls collapsed instantly.
According to real-time data, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) immediately experienced a sharp sell-off, plunging about 40 basis points in the short term, dipping to around 99.79. The bearish momentum was unstoppable, and by the end of the day, the dollar index finally closed at 99.14, with a daily drop of 0.83%. This trend is in line with the market's previous push of the dollar index to a five-week low due to expectations of weak employment data, but tonight's plunge is clearly more fierce and decisive. The weak employment data essentially declared that the reasons for the Fed to maintain high interest rates have vanished.
2. The immediate drop in U.S. Treasury yields
Alongside the dollar's sharp decline, there has been a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields. Although the search results did not provide the exact fluctuation figures for the 10-year Treasury yield on September 5, 2025, based on the basic transmission logic of financial markets and historical patterns, we can clearly infer its trend.
Historically, weak employment data usually leads to a decline in bond yields, as the market quickly anticipates that central banks will adopt easing policies, such as rate cuts, to stimulate the economy. Tonight's data further reinforced this expectation. Market participants will rush into U.S. Treasury bonds, viewed as a safe haven, driving up their prices and thus lowering their yields. It can be reasonably inferred that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield saw a significant plunge following the data release. This not only reflects a rise in risk-averse sentiment but, more importantly, the market is repricing the future policy path of the Fed with real money—rate cuts are no longer a question of 'if,' but rather 'when and by how much.'
3. The Fed's silence and the market's clamor
As of now, we have not found any public comments made by Fed officials after the data release in the search results. But behind this 'official silence' lies the market's deafening clamor.
In fact, the market has long been ahead of the Fed. As early as when July's non-farm data fell far below expectations, the market had almost fully priced in a rate cut for September. And the data from August only 'added fuel to the fire,' completely shattering any fantasies about 'pausing rate hikes' or 'waiting and seeing.' It can be anticipated that before the next FOMC meeting, any Fed official attempting to convey hawkish signals will appear out of touch with the market and even inappropriate. Previously, Fed Chair Powell mentioned at the Jackson Hole annual meeting that 'policy is in a restrictive range'; it now seems more like a prelude to a future policy shift. Tonight's data is the strongest impetus urging him to turn.
Chapter 3: The Night Before the Cryptocurrency Celebration?
Once the logical lines of traditional markets are clarified, we can better understand what is happening and will happen in the cryptocurrency market.
1. Macro logic: The 'super tailwind' for risk assets
For cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, tonight's non-farm report undoubtedly created an almost perfect macro environment. The transmission chain is crystal clear:
Terrible employment data → Surge in expectations for Fed rate cuts → Significant weakening of the dollar + Decline in U.S. Treasury yields → Improvement in market liquidity expectations + Increase in global risk appetite → Positive for risk assets led by Bitcoin
This logic has been tried and tested over the past few years. When the value and credibility of fiat currencies (especially the dollar) decline due to easing expectations, assets like Bitcoin, which have the properties of 'digital gold' and a constant supply, will highlight their relative value and attractiveness. At the same time, the market's expectation of a liquidity flood will prompt funds to seek higher returns, and cryptocurrencies epitomize this high-risk, high-return preference.
2. Bitcoin and Ethereum: Anticipated pulse-like rise
Just two days ago, on September 3, the price of Bitcoin was hovering around $111,000. Under tonight's macro 'good news' stimulation, the price of Bitcoin is already experiencing a strong pulse-like increase, approaching the $113,000 threshold. Trading volume has surged, and many keen macro traders and speculators will flood into the market to seize this macro-driven opportunity.
Chapter 4: Outlook and Conclusion
This non-farm report for August 2025 is not just a monthly report; it feels more like a turning point in an era, officially announcing the end of the Fed's current tightening cycle and forcibly opening the door to easing.
Short-term outlook: Before the next FOMC meeting, the market's main theme will be 'trading rate cuts.' The dollar will continue to face pressure, while U.S. stocks, gold, and the risk assets we are closely monitoring, like cryptocurrencies, will continue to bask in the sunshine of easing expectations. Any bad news about the economy may instead be interpreted by the market as good news that accelerates Fed rate cuts.
Long-term concerns: However, beneath the celebration, hidden worries persist. Such weak employment data raises the question of whether it is a necessary bump in the process of an economic 'soft landing' or a clear signal that the economy is sliding into a deep recession. This remains an unresolved issue. If subsequent data confirms that the risk of economic recession is increasing, then the risk-averse sentiment triggered by deteriorating corporate profits and collapsing consumer confidence may ultimately backfire on all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Conclusion:
Tonight, the market chose to celebrate. This dismal non-farm payroll report unexpectedly delivered a gift to risk assets. For the cryptocurrency sector, this is a typical moment of 'bad news is good news.' The downfall of the dollar is the victory of Bitcoin. However, as rational researchers, we must remind that when the dust settles, the market's focus will shift from the game of 'Federal Reserve policy' to an examination of 'economic fundamentals.' At that time, the chessboard may be more complex. But at least tonight, on this night of September 5, 2025, the bulls can raise their glasses.
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