#降息期待 #金价走高 Gold prices hit a four-month high, with interest rate cut expectations becoming the core driving force

On Monday, international gold prices surged to $3470 per ounce, reaching a new high in four months, with an intraday increase of about 0.4%. The key driver behind this surge is the rising expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.

Last Friday, U.S. July PCE data showed that consumer spending increased by 0.5% month-on-month, and the core PCE price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year. Although inflation has slightly rebounded, the market remains optimistic about an interest rate cut. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this month has reached 87%.

The expectation of an interest rate cut reduces the cost of holding gold, combined with a weakening U.S. dollar index and fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, further enhances gold's appeal. This week, the U.S. will release key data such as non-farm payrolls, and its performance will directly affect the Federal Reserve's policy direction, thereby determining the subsequent trend of gold prices.