Technical analysis of XRP for the week starting August 24, 2025
Current situation and technical dynamics
• Current Price: XRP is currently trading around $3.18, with notable volatility over the past weeks. The coin has seen a 9% increase recently, but it faces potential correction near the $3.00 level.
• Support and Resistance Levels:
◦ Support: The $2.90-3.00 level is considered strong psychological and technical support, from which the price has previously rebounded. An additional level at $2.70 may be a potential rebound point if the correction continues.
◦ Resistance: The $3.31 level represents short-term resistance, with major resistance at $3.51-3.71. A break above $3.31 may open the door for testing higher levels.
• Technical Patterns:
◦ Analyses indicate the formation of a bullish harmonic pattern on the daily timeframe, supporting the likelihood of a bullish rebound if the price maintains current support levels.
◦ However, the emergence of a 'Shooting Star' pattern in July 2025 indicates a potential short-term correction, especially with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) previously nearing overbought levels (88).
Technical Indicators
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 74.738 (data from August 22, 2025), indicating strong bullish momentum but close to the overbought area. The 100 level in STOCHRSI reinforces this overbought condition, necessitating caution for a potential correction.
• Moving Averages: All moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200) show strong buy signals, supporting the upward trend in the short and medium term.
• MACD: At 0.036, shows a buy signal, enhancing optimism for upward movement.
• ADX: At 28.07, indicates a strong trend, supporting the continuity of the current momentum.
• Williams %R: At -9, indicates an overbought area, which may signal a short-term correction.
Influencing Fundamental Factors
• Whale Activity: Reports suggest that market whales reduced their holdings by about 460 million XRP units before the Federal Reserve chair's speech, causing selling pressure and a 6% price drop. This reinforces caution in short-term trading.
• Regulatory Developments:
◦ Ripple's lawsuit progress with the SEC boosts confidence, as XRP has been classified as a commodity and not a security in secondary trades.
◦ The likelihood of approving an ETF for XRP in October 2025 could be a strong price catalyst, with expectations of significant upward movement if approved.
• Institutional Adoption: Ripple's partnerships with institutions like Santander and Standard Chartered support XRP's utility in cross-border payments, enhancing long-term growth potential.
Price forecast for the week
• Bullish Scenario: If XRP breaks the resistance level at $3.31 with a daily close, it may target $3.51, with the possibility of reaching $3.71 if momentum continues.
• Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to maintain support at $3.00, it may retreat to $2.90 or even $2.70, especially if selling pressure from whales continues.
• Neutral Scenario: XRP may trade sideways between $3.00-3.31 if strong catalysts do not emerge (such as ETF news or Federal Reserve decisions).
Trading recommendations for this week
1 For short-term traders:
◦ Entry Point: Wait for a daily close above $3.31 to confirm the bullish breakout.
◦ Profit Targets: $3.51, then $3.71 (optional $3.92 if momentum continues).
◦ Stop Loss: Set a weekly stop loss at $2.80, or a monthly stop at $2.08 to reduce risks.
◦ Risk Management Strategy: Given XRP's high volatility (3.26 million trading volume per minute), use a small trading volume (1-2% of capital) to avoid large losses.
2 For long-term investors:
◦ Entry Point: Support levels at $2.90-3.00 are considered a good accumulation opportunity, especially with optimism about the ETF and the resolution of the SEC case.
◦ Long-term Outlook: Expert forecasts suggest that XRP could reach $4.4 by the end of 2025, with potential jumps to $9 if strong bullish scenarios unfold (such as ETF approval).
◦ Risk Management: Monitor expected SEC decisions in October 2025, as regulatory surprises may lead to sharp volatility.
Important notes
• Volatility: XRP is prone to significant price fluctuations due to whale activity and regulatory developments. Use on-chain data tracking tools to monitor whale movements.
• Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice. Cryptocurrencies involve high risks, so make your decisions based on your own research and financial situation. Consult a financial professional if necessary.
Summary
XRP shows bullish momentum supported by strong technical indicators and positive fundamental developments, but a short-term correction is possible due to whale activity and overbought levels. Monitor support levels at $2.90-3.00 and resistance at $3.31-3.51, with a focus on ETF news and SEC decisions as key catalysts. Trading cautiously with strict risk management is essential this week.
