Technical Analysis of TON (Toncoin)
The TON coin, also known as Toncoin, is the native currency of The Open Network (TON), a distributed blockchain focused on speed and efficiency, closely linked to the Telegram app. Based on current data as of September 2, 2025, the price of TON is approximately $3.14, with a total market cap of $8.08 billion, and a daily trading volume exceeding $140 million. The price has risen by 1.07% in the past 24 hours, but remains 62% lower than its all-time high ($8.24 in June 2024). Here is a detailed technical analysis based on key indicators and current charts:
1. Overview of Trend Analysis:
• Short-term Trend (daily and weekly): The price is currently trading in a consolidation range between $3.10 (key support) and $3.60 (key resistance), indicating an accumulation phase after a previous decline in August 2025. The daily chart shows a descending triangle pattern, where the price tests recurring support levels at $3.10-$3.20, which is considered a neutral to slightly bearish signal if support breaks. However, holding above the 50-day moving average (around $3.20) supports the potential for a short-term bullish rebound.
• Medium-term Trend (monthly): The trend is neutral with a bearish tilt, as the price trades below the 200-day moving average (around $3.50-$3.60). This reflects selling pressure from potential token releases in October-November 2025, which may increase circulating supply. However, increased network activity (like TVL rising to $386 million) indicates fundamental support that could drive a rise.
• Long-term Trend: Potentially bullish, with forecasts reaching $6-$9 by the end of 2025 if integrations with Telegram continue (like USDT payments within the app). The price has risen by 518% from its lowest point ($0.39 in 2021), but it needs to break $3.89 to confirm the main bullish trend.
2. Key Technical Indicators:
• Moving Averages:
◦ 50-Day SMA: $3.20 (short-term support; price above it indicates slightly positive momentum).
◦ 200-Day SMA: $3.50 (key resistance; breaking it could lead to a rise towards $4.00).
◦ 100-Day EMA: $3.31 (the price is currently testing this, which is a Fibonacci 61.8% level of the previous rise).
◦ General Signal: Neutral, with strong sell signals if the price falls below $3.20, and buy signals if it exceeds $3.50.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI - 14 days): Around 50-52 (neutral; not in the overbought zone above 70 or oversold below 30). This indicates a balance between sellers and buyers, with potential for a rebound if it stays above 50.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The indicator shows neutral short histograms, with the MACD line approaching the signal line. If the MACD crosses above the signal line, it may confirm bullish momentum; otherwise, the fluctuation may continue.
• Other Indicators:
◦ Bollinger Bands: The price is close to the lower band ($3.10), indicating a potential rebound if volume increases.
◦ Fibonacci Retracement: Support at 61.8% ($3.31), and resistance at 23.6% ($3.58). Breaking $3.89 (0% level of the previous rise) targets $4.84.
◦ Trading Volume: Up 38% in the last 24 hours (to $208 million), supporting positive activity but needs to continue to confirm the rise.
3. Support and Resistance Levels:
• Key Support: $3.10-$3.20 (Fibonacci level and 50-day SMA; breaking it may lead to $2.80-$2.94).
• Secondary Support: $2.94 (pivot level), then $2.35 if the decline worsens.
• Key Resistance: $3.50-$3.60 (200-day EMA and Fibonacci level).
• Secondary Resistance: $3.89 (breaking it targets $4.25-$4.84).
4. Influencing Fundamental Factors:
• Positives: TON's integration with Telegram (800 million users) drives adoption, with network transactions rising to 1.2 million daily. Adding USDT on TON and support from investors like Sequoia Capital enhances confidence. The fear and greed index is at 56 (moderate greed).
• Negatives: Potential token releases in October-November may increase supply, plus 25% concentration of supply in one wallet, increasing volatility. The overall market is partially bearish due to Bitcoin corrections.
• Price Forecast: For 2025, forecasts range between $3.24-$6.48 (average $4.32), with potential to reach $9-$15 if adoption occurs. Long-term (2030): $16-$49.
Trading Recommendations
Based on the current technical analysis, here are actionable recommendations (remember: this is not financial advice; do your own research and consult a specialist, as the market is volatile):
• For short-term traders (Day/Swing Trading):
◦ Buy: If the price breaks $3.50 with increased volume, target $3.89-$4.00 (potential profit 10-15%). Set a stop-loss at $3.20 to reduce risks.
◦ Sell: If it falls below $3.10, target $2.94 (short profit 5-7%). Avoid buying if RSI remains below 50.
◦ Strategy: Use limit orders around support/resistance levels, and monitor trading volume to confirm the trend. Avoid high leverage due to volatility (3.44% weekly).
• For long-term investors (HODL/Staking):
◦ Long-term Buy: Yes, if you believe in fundamental growth (like Telegram and DeFi integration). Buy at support $3.10 and settle at $6-$9 by the end of 2025. Staking offers returns of up to 5-7% annually through platforms like Ledger or TON Foundation.
◦ Avoid: If you are risk-sensitive, wait for a break of $3.89 to confirm the bullish trend. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose, especially with regulatory risks (like previous SEC issues).
◦ General Risks: High volatility (a 25% drop possible next month according to some forecasts), and dependence on Telegram. Diversifying the portfolio with 5-10% in TON is recommended.
In conclusion, the analysis indicates a short-term neutral trend with bullish potential if support is maintained, backed by strong fundamentals. Monitor news such as network updates or Bitcoin movements to make informed decisions. For live updates, check platforms like TradingView or CoinMarketCap.
