Technical analysis for ADA (Cardano)
Based on recent data up to September 2, 2025, the current price of ADA (Cardano) shows an approximate value of $0.81, with a decline of 1-2% in the last 24 hours, and a larger decline of 3-4% over the week. This reflects a short-term correction in the market but comes within a broader positive context, as the price has risen 12-15% over the past month and over 130% over the past year. ADA is now considered in a consolidation phase after a strong rise in July and August 2025, supported by network updates like the Plomin Hard Fork and ADA ETF expectations.
Key technical indicators:
• Moving Averages:
◦ 50-day SMA: Approximately $0.82. The current price is trading close to this level, indicating a neutral to weakly bullish short-term trend. If the price holds above this level, it reinforces the medium-term bullish trend.
◦ 200-day SMA: Approximately $0.72. This level is considered a strong long-term support, showing a continuous upward trend since late August 2025. Crossing above $0.85 may confirm a strong buy signal.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Ranges between 46-48 on the daily timeframe, indicating a neutral area (not overbought or oversold). This allows room for upward movement without immediate correction risks, but it needs to cross above 50 to confirm bullish momentum. In higher timeframes (weekly), RSI shows a buy signal.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Shows a short-term bearish signal with a value of -0.013, reflecting temporary selling pressure. However, there is positive divergence with the overall bullish trend, as the line approaches a bullish crossover. If this occurs, it may push the price toward $0.88-0.95 in the coming weeks.
• Support and resistance levels:
◦ Support: $0.77 (immediate support), $0.68-0.72 (strong support aligning with the 200-day SMA and lower Bollinger band). If the price drops below $0.77, it may reach $0.68, indicating a deeper correction of 15-17%.
◦ Resistance: $0.84-0.88 (immediate resistance, aligns with the 20-day SMA), then $0.95-1.02 (psychological level and major resistance). Breaking above $0.88 with high trading volume (above $500 million daily) could push toward $1.05-1.32 by the end of September.
• General trend analysis:
◦ Short term (daily/weekly): Neutral to weakly bearish due to the current correction and bearish MACD, but the completed 'falling wedge' pattern indicates a potential bullish breakout if it maintains support at $0.77. Daily trading volume is about $1.1-1.4 billion, supporting liquidity but needs to increase to confirm the uptrend.
◦ Medium term (monthly): Bullish, with a 'strong buy' signal on the monthly frame. The network shows growth in on-chain activity, such as an increase in DeFi TVL to $341 million, and integrations like Lace Wallet with XRP by the end of 2025.
◦ Long term: Very bullish, supported by updates like Hydra (for scalability) and Mithril, and ETF expectations from Grayscale (79-80% probability by the end of 2025). The fear and greed index is at 48 (neutral), but the overall trend indicates a growth of 29% in the next month towards $1.04.
Price predictions for ADA in 2025:
Based on multiple analyses (such as CoinCodex, Changelly, Coinpedia):
• Minimum: $0.71-0.81 (in case of a general market correction).
• Average: $0.90-1.05.
• Maximum: $1.5-2.05 (driven by ETF and network updates, with an extended target of $2.36 if it breaks $1.10).
For the long term: By 2030, it could reach $5-10, with an average of $2-3, based on adoption growth in DeFi and digital identity.
Trading recommendations
Important note: These recommendations are not financial advice, and personal research (DYOR) should be conducted. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and no prediction guarantees 100% accuracy. Consult a financial advisor, and do not invest more than you can afford to lose.
• General recommendation: Potential buy (Buy on Dip) at the moment, provided support at $0.77 is maintained. ADA is considered a good long-term investment opportunity due to its strong fundamentals (efficient PoS, research development), but it needs technical confirmation for short-term entry. The overall bullish trend makes it suitable for diversified portfolios, especially with ETF expectations that could inject substantial liquidity.
• Trading strategies:
◦ Short term (weeks to a month): Wait for a break above $0.88 with high trading volume to buy, target $0.95-1.05 (15-25% profit). Set a stop loss below $0.77 to avoid correction. If it drops to $0.68, consider buying as a 'dip' opportunity, but cautiously due to the bearish MACD.
◦ Medium term (3-6 months): Buy now at $0.81, with a target of $1.10-1.32 by the end of 2025. Use Dollar-Cost Averaging strategy to reduce risks. Monitor the RSI to avoid buying in overbought areas (above 70).
◦ Long term (2025-2030): Buy and hold (HODL), especially if you believe in Cardano's developments like the Midnight sidechain and Bitcoin DeFi integration. Long-term target: $2-5 by 2026, with regulatory risks (like ETF delays).
• Major risks:
◦ General market downturn (such as Bitcoin dropping below $100,000).
◦ Failed to break resistance at $0.88, which may lead to testing $0.68.
◦ External factors: Delays in updates or negative regulations.
• Additional tips:
◦ Watch the trading volume (should exceed $1 billion to confirm the uptrend).
◦ Use platforms like TradingView for charts, and CoinMarketCap for live data.
◦ Staking: Considered a good option for passive income (4-5% annual yield), enhancing long-term holding.
In conclusion, ADA seems well-positioned for growth, but focusing on risk management is essential. Keep an eye on developments like the launch of Hydra for more bullish support.