Technical Analysis for TRUMP Coin (Meme Coin on Solana)
Based on recent data until September 2, 2025, “TRUMP” here refers to the official digital currency (Official Trump), a meme coin associated with U.S. President Donald Trump, built on the Solana network. This coin is not Trump Media stocks (DJT), but a popular cryptocurrency due to its political and cultural ties. The current price is about $8.38, with a market cap of $1.68 billion, ranked #56 in the crypto market. The coin saw a massive rise after its launch in January 2025 (reaching $74.27), but has dropped 89% from its highs, reflecting the extreme volatility typical of meme coins.
Current Technical Analysis
I used technical analysis tools such as Moving Averages (MA), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and MACD to assess trends. Data is sourced from platforms like CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, and TradingView, focusing on the daily (Daily) and weekly (Weekly) time frames for long-term views, and hourly (Hourly) for short-term.
• Overall Trend (Trend Analysis):
◦ Daily Frame: The coin is in a short-term bearish trend, with a break of the 50-day simple moving average (50-day SMA) at $9.50. The price is trading below the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA) at $12.20, indicating strong selling pressure. Main support at $8.07-8.50 (61.8% Fibonacci level of the previous rise), and if broken, it may reach $7.00 (psychological support).
◦ Weekly Frame: Sideways trend (Consolidation) since August, with resistance at $10.19. The RSI is at 41.92 (neutral, not oversold or overbought), but MACD shows a bearish crossover, reinforcing the likelihood of an additional decline of 10-15% if no rebound occurs.
◦ Volatility: Very high; daily trading volume is $1.28 billion (down 7% from yesterday), but Open Interest rose by 5%, indicating accumulation from whales and potential recovery.
• Key Indicators:
◦ RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.92 on daily (neutral, close to oversold <30), indicating potential short-term rebound if it exceeds 50. On hourly, RSI is at 73.5 (overbought), warning of correction.
◦ MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Negative، with the signal line below the main line, indicating weakness in bullish momentum. If the crossover turns positive, it could push the price towards $10.
◦ Bollinger Bands: The price is close to the lower bound ($8.00), enhancing the likelihood of a rebound, but the range is narrow, indicating low volatility currently (may explode soon).
◦ Trading Volume: Up 162% last week, with flows from whales buying at support, but the Fear & Greed Index is at 48 (neutral), reflecting a lack of full confidence.
• Support & Resistance:
◦ Support: $8.07 (strong, Fibonacci level), then $7.50.
◦ Resistance: $9.25 (nearby), then $10.19 (key for bullish breakout).
• Forecast:
◦ Short-term (September 2025): Potential drop to $6.48-7.00 (based on CoinCodex, -25% from current price), due to selling pressure and political volatility. However, if it bounces from support, it can reach $10-12 with +20%.
◦ Medium-term (End of 2025): $10-30 (average $17, according to Cryptopolitan), supported by election influence and pro-crypto policies. If the ETF (like Canary TRUMP ETF) is approved, it may reach $50.
◦ Long-term (2030): $50-60 at maximum, but high volatility makes it a risk. Goldman Sachs expects gold (linked to TRUMP) to rise to $3700, supporting politically linked currencies.
Key Fundamental Factors
• Positives: Trump's connection to crypto (like Bitcoin Reserve and mining support), rising social interest (39% positive), and demand from whales (800+ new wallets in 24 hours). The proposed ETF from Canary Capital may attract institutions.
• Negatives: 80% of tokens are owned by Trump and his partners (CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight), raising concerns about concentration and regulation. Political volatility (such as tariffs) may negatively impact, along with declining confidence in meme coins (losses for 764,000 small wallets).
• Recent News: Up 9% after Nasdaq celebration, and Justin Sun's $100 million investment. However, ethical investigations continue.
Trading Recommendations
Warning: Trading in meme coins like TRUMP carries very high risks (volatility up to 300% in one day and potential total capital loss). This is not financial advice; consult an advisor and use DYOR (Do Your Own Research). Always use stop-loss, and do not invest more than you can afford to lose.
• For beginners/conservatives: Avoid trading or buy small amounts (1-5% of the portfolio) at support ($8.07) for long-term holding, with a sell target at $10-12. Use platforms like MEXC or OKX for safe trading.
• For active traders:
◦ Buy Trade (Long): If it bounces from $8.07 with high trading volume (> $1.5 billion daily) and positive MACD. Target: $9.25 (initial, +10%), then $10.19 (+20%). Stop-loss: $7.80 (-3%). RR (Risk-Reward): 1:3.
◦ Sell Trade (Short): If support at $8.07 is broken with RSI <30. Target: $7.50 (+7%). Stop-loss: $8.50. RR: 1:2. Suitable for short volatility.
◦ Strategy: Use low leverage (2-5x) on platforms like Bybit. Monitor political news (like ETF decisions in October) and whale flows via DexScreener or CoinGecko. In the case of a bullish breakout above $10.19, increase buying for a target of $12-15.
• Diversification: Don't focus solely on TRUMP; add Bitcoin or Ethereum for balance, as TRUMP is affected by the overall market. If you prefer long-term investment, consider the ETF like Canary TRUMP if approved.
In conclusion, TRUMP is suitable for traders who can withstand high risks, especially with political support for crypto under Trump's administration. However, the current trend is bearish, so wait for rebound signals before entering. Follow daily market updates to adjust the strategy.
