How to Buy the Dip on TREE? Oversold + Large Orders Lurking, A 20%+ Violent Rebound May Occur Below 0.32!
One-Line Overview: After TREE's daily chart 'halved', it is now closely following the lower Bollinger Band, with a rare 1.97 times buying advantage in the spot market. Smart money is quietly building a dam in the 0.32-0.41 value zone, and the short term may replicate the V-rebound script from May.
Key Interval Structure
1. Value Anchor (POC): 0.4099, with 746 million units traded in the last two weeks, serving as the ultimate retracement target for bulls.
2. Major HVN: 0.3958-0.4064, with four overlapping high volumes forming the first rebound ceiling; 0.415-0.418 represents the second resistance.
3. Low Volume Node (LVN): 0.323-0.330, with trading volume only 1/3 of HVN, making prices easily cross rapidly, suitable for breakouts or pullbacks for pinning.
4. 70% Value Zone: 0.3887-0.4914, the current price of 0.3252 has deviated more than 1×ATR from the lower band, sitting at the extreme oversold edge.
Momentum Validation
• In the POC range Up/Down=53:47, a balanced long/short; however, in the 0.32-0.33 range, Down Volume occupies 65%, with shorts still dominating the short term, requiring a wait for the first volume-increasing bullish candle to reverse.
• Contracts have seen a 12.9% outflow over 7 days, indicating accelerated bottom-fishing signs; the long/short ratio on the 8h level decreased from 1.80 to 1.78, reaching an emotional low point.
Auxiliary Indicators
• Bollinger Bands 1h: Price is near the lower band at 6.8%, RSI at 24, extreme value resonance.
• MA200 deviation -14%, comparable to the December 2024 low, with an average historical rebound of 26%.
• Market Depth: A sell wall of 935,000 USDT is hiding above 0.72; if breached, it will trigger short covering.
Market Cycle Judgment
The weekly level is in the final stage of a bear market's main decline, while the daily level has entered the panic finale of the 'panic - volume reduction - value return' trilogy, with a short-term view as an oversold rebound window.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Place a buy order at the current price of 0.325±0.002, stop loss at 0.319 (below HVN), target at 0.395 (first HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈3.8.
Conservative: Wait for a volume-increasing bullish candle on the 15m level to reclaim 0.330, then enter on a pullback in the 0.328-0.330 range, stop loss at 0.324, target at 0.410 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈4.6.
Cautious: If it breaks below 0.319, observe until considering the previous low of 0.305.
Risk Warning
If the daily close is below 0.319 with increased volume, the range will shift downwards, rendering the strategy ineffective; macro negatives (regulatory/broad market breakdown) may also prolong the bottoming process.
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