【Blood Collapse Alert】LAYER 24h plummeted 7.5%, oversold at 13.6, is it bottom fishing or licking blood on the knife edge?

Summary in one sentence: The price has dropped to the lower Bollinger Band + two-year value bottom, contract longs have reduced positions for five consecutive days, while the spot quietly accumulates, and there may be an extreme rebound scenario of 'killing longs and then enticing shorts' in the short term.

Key Interval Structure

1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC = 0.6009, with 136 million chips accumulated above, serving as the dividing line for medium-term bulls and bears.

2. High Trading Volume Zone:

• HVN-1 0.5991–0.6019 (126–132 million)

• HVN-2 0.6471–0.6490 (135 million)

These two zones form the first and second resistance for the rebound.

3. Low Trading Volume Gaps:

• LVN-1 0.5614–0.5670 (2.06 million) — The current price is within this range, and the gap can be quickly filled.

• LVN-2 0.6781–0.6885 (<1.18 million) — If it strongly breaks 0.661, it could accelerate to 0.68.

4. 70% Trading Volume Coverage Zone: 0.5953–0.6612, with the current price at the lower outer side, short-term oversold.

Momentum Verification

• UpVol≈33% above POC, clearly seller-dominated; DownVol >90% inside LVN-1, extreme killing momentum for longs.

• Contract positions reduced by 7.3% in the last 2 hours, but net inflow for the spot is 33.7k, showing divergence.

• MA200 deviation -8.6%, support at the lower Bollinger Band 0.5655 remains unbroken, RSI 13.6 hits a new low for the year, high probability for technical rebound.

Market Cycle

At the end of the main decline phase of a bear market, entering a short-term sub-cycle of 'panic - killing longs - rapid pullback', with daily rhythm dominating.

Trading Strategy

Aggressive: Place long orders at the current price 0.567±0.002, stop loss at 0.560 (outside LVN-1), first target 0.6009 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈ 4.1.

Conservative: Wait for 1 hour to close above 0.572 and UpVol > 55% to chase, stop loss at 0.565, target 0.619 (MA200), risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.4.

Cautious: If it drops below 0.560, short on a rebound to around 0.565, stop loss at 0.570, target 0.540, risk-reward ratio ≈ 5.0.

Risk Warning

• If the 1-hour entity drops below 0.560, the interval structure is broken, and longs should be stopped immediately.

• Macroeconomic black swan or project side selling pressure could break through the historical low of 0.534, be sure to control positions ≤ 1% of the account.

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