$ETH Snapshot (right now):

Price ~4150–4160 on M15. A steep downsloping MA is overhead. RSI ~57 after climbing from lows. We just bounced from the 4109–4125 pocket and are testing the MA / prior intraday resistance.

Technicals (explained clean)

1. Trend & MA control

The M15 moving average is pointing down → intraday trend still bearish.

Until price reclaims and holds above the MA (multiple M15 closes), every pop is just a rally into supply.

2. Market structure shift (early signs)

After the dump, price stopped making lower lows and printed a series of higher lows into 4150s.

That’s an attempted shift from distribution to accumulation, not confirmed until we break and hold above 4168–4175 (neckline area).

3. Key levels

Support/Order block: 4109–4125 (where buyers defended repeatedly).

Resistance: 4168–4175 (neckline / MA zone), then 4200–4215 (prior breakdown shelf).

Beneath: if 4109 gives way → 4065 daily OB is back in play.

4. RSI message

RSI rising from sub-50 to ~57 shows momentum improvement but not a breakout.

We likely had a mild bullish divergence on the lows (price flat/down, RSI ticking up) → explains the bounce. Confirmation still needs level breaks, not just RSI.

5. Candle behavior

Long lower wicks near 4110s = buyers defending.

Upper wicks into the MA / 4170s = sellers hitting pops.

That’s typical “retest the breaker” behavior: bounce, tag supply, reassess.

6. Pattern read

Two templates on the table:

Fail below 4170s → Bear Flag continuation back toward 4125 → 4109 → 4065.

Break & hold above 4170s (and the MA) → Inverse H&S / range breakout squeeze into 4200–4215.

Psychology & Sentiment (why this hurts people)

After a vertical dump, fear spikes → late shorts chase bottoms.

A quick bounce to the MA relieves fear and tempts FOMO longs.

Algos, big players, and liquidity models exploit that swing in emotion: push to a line everyone watches, then test commitment.

Retail bias right now: “support reclaimed!” but confirmation is king, not the first green candle.

My Playbook Mindset (no hopium)

Bull scenario: I want M15 closes above 4168–4175 + acceptance above the MA. Then I’ll look for pullback entries targeting 4200–4215. Invalidation = back below 4150 with momentum fading.

Bear scenario: Rejection at the MA/4170s and a clean break below 4125 opens the door to 4109 → 4065. Lose 4065 on momentum and the daily slide toward 4000/3800 stays alive.

Discipline: No chasing candles. Trade the reaction at levels, not the narrative.

Bottom line:

This is a retest zone, not a victory lap. Win = reclaim 4170s with strength. Lose = slip back under 4125 and the grind to 4065 resumes. Stay patient, trade the confirmation, and let the chart pay you, not your emotions.

🔥 Patience makes killers. FOMO makes victims.