
The price is hovering close to the lower Bollinger Band, yet forms a -20% vacuum zone with POC (0.212) — this is a typical 'deep squat before value reversion', as the main force exchanges time for space in the LVN hollow.
[Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution]
1. Value Anchoring Area: POC 0.2120377, transaction volume 1.09 billion, the largest turnover area in the past two weeks, with the upper HVN 0.2075-0.2184 forming a thick wall; once the price returns to this area, it is likely to encounter selling pressure.
2. High Volume Area: Three HVNs at 0.2075, 0.2120, and 0.2148 overlap, forming an 'iron top' at 0.207-0.215; short-term rebounds to this level can be used to reduce positions in batches.
3. Low Volume Gap: 0.1647-0.1675 (LVN) and 0.1838-0.1857 (LVN) are rapid crossing zones; the former is only 2% away from the current price, if it breaks with volume, it will slide directly to 0.156.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 0.1948-0.2257, the current price is still +14.7% away from the lower edge, not in extreme oversold territory, but close to the edge.
[Momentum Verification]
• Above POC in the 0.207-0.215 area: Up Volume accounts for 48-52%, long-short balance, lacking active buying.
• At 0.1647 LVN: Up Volume 55%, a slight buying initiative appears; if it retests and Up > 60%, it is considered a bullish signal.
[Auxiliary Indicators]
• Bollinger Band: Price is at the 52% position, with the lower band at 0.1646 forming the first support, and the middle band at 0.1696 acting as intraday resistance.
• MA200: 0.1827, deviated -7%, indicating a clear medium-term bearish trend; open interest is at 7 days -8.3%, with funds continuously withdrawing, synchronizing with price decline, showing no divergence.
[Market Cycle]
At the end of a medium-term down channel, currently in a short-term oscillation seeking a bottom; if 0.164 LVN is lost, it will open up the third wave of the bear market.
[Trading Strategy]
• Aggressive: Enter long when retesting 0.1647 LVN and 15m Up Volume > 60%, stop loss at 0.162 (outside HVN 0.1647 - 0.5×ATR), target 0.171 (middle band)/0.177 (2×ATR), risk-reward ratio ≈2.8.
• Steady: Wait for a pullback near POC 0.212 to short, entry at 0.210-0.212, stop loss at 0.215 (outside upper HVN), target 0.200, risk-reward ratio ≈3.5.
• Conservative: Sell high and buy low within the range of 0.164-0.174, stop loss at 0.5×ATR for each, target the opposite edge, risk-reward ratio ≈1.8.
[Risk Warning]
If the daily close falls below 0.156 or breaks through 0.225 with volume, the strategy will be invalid; pay attention to macro sentiment and BTC trends.
[LP Market Making Suggestions]
It is recommended to conduct narrow range LP in the LVN area of 0.164-0.174, using high volatility in low transaction volume hollows to earn fees; stop-loss position synchronized with aggressive long positions, capital utilization ≈30%.
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