Event Review 🎯
In recent days, the ETH market has experienced extreme volatility: in just 12 minutes, the price rapidly rose from $4227 to $4322, an increase of 2.25%. Subsequently, the market stabilized at a high level, with prices hovering between $4305 and $4309, ultimately retreating to $4286.09. During this period of volatility, the frequent intervention of institutional funds and the intertwining of multiple technical signals painted a complex picture of simultaneous short-term reversal and medium to long-term pressure in the market.
Timeline ⏰
17:13: The market first revealed liquidation risks, with some analysis indicating that the liquidation amount of high-leverage long positions in ETH approached $500 million, suggesting that risks are accumulating.
17:17: On-chain data records show that whale funds have quietly intervened—large holders withdrew a significant amount of WBTC and ETH from trading platforms, reflecting signs of bottom-fishing.
17:27: Keen traders began to enter the market, buying a large amount of ETH at around $4240, demonstrating institutional funds' confidence in the market bottom.
17:35: ETH price experienced explosive growth, soaring from $4227 to $4322, with major funds continuously laying out, propelling the market's rapid rise.
17:35 to 17:53: After the rapid rise, ETH entered a high-level consolidation zone, with prices fluctuating slightly between $4305 and $4309.
18:16: Well-known trader 'Yu Jin' publicly displayed a position exceeding $100 million, once again sending a bullish signal from institutions, with noticeable capital layout.
18:18: After experiencing extreme volatility, ETH retreated to $4286.09, and the market temporarily entered an adjustment and consolidation phase.
Reason Analysis 🔍
① Major Institutional Fund Layout
A large number of major orders show that institutional funds are seizing low-level opportunities to intervene strongly. Technical indicators such as MACD, KDJ golden cross, and RSI oversold signals consistently point to a short-term rebound, indicating that this wave of upward movement is driven by a large number of big orders. Particularly, in the sharp rise at 17:35, the dense appearance of bottom-fishing large orders further strengthened the market's bottom support.
② Macroeconomic Expectations and Policy Benefits
The US CPI data was lower than expected, and expectations for interest rate cuts have warmed, along with new regulatory policies released in Thailand and Hong Kong, which have increased market risk appetite. The stabilization of the regulatory environment and expectations of macroeconomic easing policies attract more institutional funds to allocate to crypto assets, boosting overall market sentiment.
Technical Analysis 🛠️
This technical analysis is based on Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick data, with the main observations as follows:
KDJ Indicator: Shows divergent trends, trend strength is increasing, expected to support short-term upward movement;
Trading Volume: Increased by 27.36% compared to the previous period, with a 20-day average volume increase of 8.77%, indicating that the overall market activity is continuously improving, and institutional style is clearly entering;
Moving Average System: Short-term MA5, MA10, MA20 are in a bearish arrangement, suggesting that there is still bearish pressure in the short term;
EMA Indicator: The price is currently below the EMA20/50/120 moving averages, indicating a weak long-term trend;
MACD and RSI: MACD histogram is continuously increasing, momentum is strengthening, while RSI has broken the upward trend line, signaling a bullish signal;
TD Sequential: Currently in the bullish Setup phase (7/9), indicating that the short-term trend is likely to reverse;
Medium-term Trend: The price remains below EMA24/52, and the slope of EMA52 is -0.51%, indicating that medium-term bearish pressure cannot be ignored;
Large Orders and High Volume Transactions: In the last hour, the total order amount across the network was approximately $7 million (with short positions accounting for 63%), while the net inflow of funds reached $100 million, indicating that the market is still in a structural game.
Market Outlook 🌟
Looking Ahead:
In the short term, the continued intervention of major funds and technical rebound signals are expected to lead ETH to a local rebound, but there is a risk of high-level fluctuations and adjustments;
The frequent increase of institutional funds indicates that long-term bullish sentiment remains strong, but at the same time, moving averages and medium-term moving average indicators show significant downward pressure, leading to high market volatility;
Investors need to closely monitor key support levels (such as around $4300) and changes in trading volume, reasonably allocate positions, and control risk exposure;
Overall, the macroeconomic easing policies and regional regulatory policies may provide support for the long term, but in the short term, the market may still experience significant volatility due to institutional position adjustments.
Through this wave of extreme volatility in ETH, we have seen the dual role of institutional funds and technical signals in the market. Future trends still hold uncertainties, and investors must remain cautious and manage risks while capturing rebound opportunities.
