Don't calculate too much~

Because for the past two days, many people have been asking me whether $ETH can be shorted, and I did indeed mention in the last analysis that the previous high of over 4800 is unlikely to be surpassed in one go. Here, there is a possibility of a daily level pullback.

However, this assumption has a prerequisite, which is that $BTC needs to reach 136000. Currently, the major coin is still far from 136000, so this medium-term short strategy is not mature. It's not that it can't be tried, but the success rate has decreased significantly.

Currently, I have some adjustments in my trading ideas. I am afraid it might be too late to write this out by the weekend, so I am sharing a post in advance.

1. My average price for Ethereum long positions is 3510, and I took profit at 4200. Although I plan to buy back a bit at 4050 later, I didn't get the chance.

This early profit-taking caused me to miss several hundred points of profit.

Based on this, I have decided to maintain a certain long position before the interest rate cut is finalized in mid-September.

The original plan was to take profit at 135000 for the major coin, now modified to take profit at 67% at 135000.

The original plan was to take profit at 218 for $SOL , now modified to take profit at 67% at 218.

If we see a daily level pullback, I will buy back 2/3 of the positions that were closed. If there is no daily level pullback, I will not buy back, and I will hold long positions at least until after the interest rate cut.

2. Regarding altcoin spot markets, I previously decided to exit when the altcoin seasonal index reached 80. Now modified to: both conditions of the altcoin seasonal index being 80+ and the interest rate cut being finalized must be met before exiting (not necessarily exiting all, depending on the market share of the major coin).

3. Theoretically, as long as the major coin does not exceed 137000, Ethereum does not exceed 5100, and SOL does not exceed 235, they should all start to see a daily level pullback.

However, currently it seems that if the major coin reaches 136000, there is a high probability that Ethereum and SOL will be pulled up. Moreover, the major coin may also surpass 137000. Since this is the case, there may not be a daily level pullback later, and there is a probability of a 4-hour level pullback before continuing up.

Looking at the timing, it is also a bit urgent. If the major coin is to experience a daily level pullback, it must peak by August 22 at the latest. But can it really pull up that much in a week? Not necessarily.

In simple terms: if the major coin does not reach 136000 before August 22, I will give up the original medium-term short plan and only hold long positions.