Don't calculate too much~

When there's a floating profit, one says "I want to go here and there", but when there's a floating loss, there's silence. I think that's not very good. So I want to talk about a few floating loss trades separately.

1. $BTC I added a bit of position yesterday at 114100 and 112700. Currently, the average price in USDT is 114300, and the average price in cryptocurrency is 115200.

2. $ETH Since taking profit at 4200, I haven't found a good entry point. In the past few days, I built positions at 4310, 4210, and 4110, and the current average price is 4208, which happens to be the position I took profit at before, so it's considered "recovered".

3. $SOL The cryptocurrency and USDT positions have always been in a floating profit state, so I won't discuss them.

Recently, someone asked me if, according to the Chande theory structure, the bull is over?

Actually, not to mention the Chande theory, even based on naked candlesticks, the bull is also gone. Can the weekly level be understood as a double top? Is the weekly KD a dead cross? Is the MACD also about to dead cross? Is there a top divergence on the daily indicators? Is the entity breaking below the daily EMA60?

But sometimes, indicators are not that absolute.

From the perspective of moving averages, since February this year, the price has been suppressed by the daily EMA60 until it broke through in April. After that, it only broke below on June 22 (98100), and then again today.

From the perspective of the Chande theory, was the daily level decline from May 22 to June 22 standard? From 111900 to 100300, and then the second part is from 110500 to 98100, isn't that without divergence? After the rebound, shouldn't there be a third leg down to break 98100? Why did it go up directly?

I was looking at 94000 from the position around 110000, many people didn't believe it, but when it dropped to 98100, everyone believed it. This is human nature, just like now that it has fallen and everyone is looking at 108000, can there still be a bull after breaking 111900?

From the indicators' perspective, if we go back to September 2021, we faced a similar situation with the weekly MACD about to dead cross and KD dead crossing. Should we go long or short?

Indeed, in September 2021... two months later, it turned bearish, but in those two months, the market rose by 40%.

In fact, looking at indicators alone for trading, day trading is certainly possible, but for medium to long term, one cannot rely solely on technical aspects.

From the fundamentals, after September 18, it can be said that favorable policies turned into unfavorable, but to conclude before the interest rate cut that the expectations of the rate cut have been fulfilled, isn't that unreasonable? (Followed by p4)