Recently, Ethereum has continued the upward trend that began in the $2400 range, currently contesting the key resistance level of $4400. This price level has often triggered market reversals in historical trends. As of now, ETH is priced at $4206, and the market is at a key point of directional choice. However, it is worth noting that while long-term on-chain data is releasing bullish signals, short-term market also hides volatility risks.
$4400 tug-of-war: Long-term bullishness on-chain coexists with short-term concerns.
From a long-term on-chain indicator perspective, the accumulation trend of Ethereum has significantly strengthened. Since 2022, the exchange supply ratio (ESR) across the market has continued to decline, reflecting that seller liquidity is gradually decreasing, with more investors preferring to hold rather than sell.
However, short-term risks cannot be ignored, especially as the data from leading exchange Binance shows a different trend: since early 2025, Binance's ESR has continued to rise, accompanied by significant capital inflow, which is usually associated with increasing market selling willingness. The divergence between long-term macro strength and short-term tactical caution suggests that significant volatility may occur in the future.
Chart signals: Rise and fall targets under overbought risk.
The daily chart shows that Ethereum is currently testing the $4400 resistance level, while forming important support near $4000. In terms of technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 71, close to the overbought range, suggesting that there may be profit-taking pressure in the market.
From the analysis of Fibonacci extension lines, the key node in the recent rise is at $4302. If the bulls can maintain momentum, the next target will point to $4886. However, the high-level operation of the RSI also reminds traders to be cautious of signs of short-term market weakness.
Leverage and capital flow: Short-term variables under bullish advantage.
Futures market data shows that leveraged positions have rapidly increased over the past few trading days, with the market exhibiting an 'overheated' state. Although leveraged trading can amplify bullish momentum, once market sentiment reverses, it can easily trigger large-scale liquidations, leading to sharp price drops. Historical experience indicates that when approaching strong resistance levels, an overheated derivatives market is often a precursor to a rapid pullback. The core issue currently is whether the bulls can maintain control without triggering forced liquidations.
In terms of capital flow, Ethereum saw a net outflow of $245.57 million from exchanges on August 10, continuing the recent trend of assets withdrawing from exchanges. This negative net flow usually indicates that investors are moving assets into self-custody wallets, reflecting an increased accumulation willingness and reduced short-term selling pressure. However, the positive reading of Binance's ESR indicates that some traders are still transferring tokens to centralized exchanges, and potential selling actions cannot be ruled out.
Liquidation zone game: $4300-$4400 becomes the key dividing line.
The liquidation heatmap shows that there is a dense liquidity cluster in the range of $4300 to $4400, which may become a price 'magnet' in the short term. If the bulls can decisively break through this range, it may trigger a short-term liquidation chain reaction, accelerating the price towards higher Fibonacci targets like $4800; conversely, if it faces pressure and falls back here, it may lead to concentrated selling, and the market may correct to the support level of $4000. Ethereum's performance near this liquidity gap will directly determine the short-term trend direction.
Will the breakthrough be realized? The contest of long and short forces shapes the future trend.
Although the RSI indicates overbought risks, Ethereum's overall structure and on-chain data still lean towards supporting a breakthrough above $4400. The continuous outflow of capital from exchanges, the decline in overall market ESR, and a strong accumulation trend may offset short-term pressures brought by the rising Binance ESR and high leverage. If the bulls can maintain their current momentum, ETH is expected to challenge $4800, further consolidating the bullish trend while alleviating the cooling pressure from short-term market overheating. For traders, it is essential to closely monitor the breakthrough of key price levels while guarding against volatility risks and seizing potential opportunities.
